Market developments in Turkey

(1)

Market

developments

in

Turkey

Metsä2013 Joint session of the ECE Committee on Forests and the

Forest Industry and the FAO European Forestry Commission

Ramazan BALI

(2)

TÜRKİYE’DE ODUN ARZ – TALEP DURUMU

Main economic indicators and trends

Turkish economy is the 17th biggest economy

Economic growth is quite high with 5,1% average GDP growth in

last 10 years in spite of adverse effect of global economic crises

 Strong banking system , low budget deficit (0,3 % of GDP) and

low public debt (36% of GDP) are strengths

High payment deficit is the main weakness

Economic recovery slowdowned, after strong recovery witnessed

in 2010 and 2011 by 8.9% and 8.5%

GDP Growth in 2012 and the first half of 2013 are 2,2% and 3,7%

(3)

TÜRKİYE’DE_{GDP Growth rates} ODUN ARZ – TALEP DURUMU

5.3 9.4 8.4 6.9 4.7 0.7 ‐4.8 9.2 8.8 2.2 3.7 ‐6.0 ‐4.0 ‐2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Es Annual G DP Growth rates

(4)

Construction Indicators

Despite moderate

increase of building

number,

Dwelling unit number

and floor area are

increasing rapidly

This means taller

buildings larger dwellings

Changing construction

techniques and

multistorey buildings

cause less wood usage

79 77 43 50 75 107 114 107 95 92 139 102 103 107 62 ₅₇ 36 46 70 106 123 125 104 101 179 124 152 168 163 203 330 547 600 585 504 518 906 652 745 802 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Number of dwelling unit Num b er of building and floor area Number of building (1000) Floor area (million m2) Number of dwelling unit (1000)

according to

(5)

Furniture sector

 Furniture sector, the most important area for wood products consumption,

has been growing fast since 2000

 Rapid growth of the sector thanks to strong domestic demand and dramatic

increase of export 83 93 135 215 290 342 390 520 517 517 652 765 1003 99 58 53 65 105 155 242 255 276 201 222 287 251 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Exp o rt ‐ import Value Million $ Wood furniture export and import volues Export İmport

(6)

TÜRK_{Suply source of}İYE’DE ODUN_{industrial wood} ARZ – TALEP DURUMU

• 76% of demand met by public production

• Most of private

production is made from poplar plantation in

agricultural land

• Import amount and it’s share are decreasing as a result of taxation and other restrictions 76% 18% 6% GDF Private Import

(7)

Public forest source

• 9.6 mil. ha allocated

for wood production

out of 21.7 million ha

public forest

• Annual increment is

quite higher than

felling

• There is quite big

potential for additional felling 21.7 42 9.6 34 19 19 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Forest are mil. Ha.

İncreament mil. m³

Felling mil. m³ Round wood Production mil.

m³

(8)

Roundwood production from puplic forest

Industrial roundwood production doubled in last decade • Strong demand by panel industry • Satisfying price • Policy priority of GDF Ambitious strategic

plan targets (20 mil m³

ind. wood and 5,8 mil

m³ fuel wood production in 2017) 7320 14424 11780 17900 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Es.

(9)

Price trends of wood products $/m3

116 109 158 104 77 81 43 35 67 70 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Constant prices: 2011 (TL/$ : 2,02)

3rd clas pine sawlog 3rd clas beech sawlog Small sawlog

Chipswood Pulpwood

• Roundwood prices

are relatively high

• General trend of

prices is flat,

• Sawlog price is

slightly downward

• The price fall in

2013 is mainly

caused by

(10)

Pine sawlog monthly auction sales and prices

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 20 09… Ş uba t

Mart Nisan May

ı s Hazir an Tem m uz A ğ ustos Ey lül Ek im Kas ı m Aral ı k 20 10… Ş uba t

Mart Nisan May

ı s Hazir an Tem m uz A ğ ustos Ey lül Ek im Kas ı m Price TL. Amount (1000 M3)

(11)

Wood industry

Wood industry is composed of too many enterprises (23,830)

employ 118,000 worker

The industry is being consolidating

The development performance are well over than manufacture

industry in terms of turnover, production value and value added

Development performance and potential of wood working

industry branches are significantly different from each other

 Particle board, fibre board, pallet and other packing equipment

production have increased strongly in recent years,

but massive parquet, sawnwood and plywood branches witnessed

(12)

Production capacity of particle and fibre board industry 2,384 5741 792 5189 0 300 600 900 1,200 1,500 1,800 2,100 2,400 2,700 3,000 3,300 3,600 3,900 4,200 4,500 4,800 5,100 5,400 5,700 6,000 6,300 6,600 6,900 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 1000 m³/year

Particle board Fibre board

Beside new investments, renovation and capacity expansion continues apace, especially in fibreboard branch

(13)

Particle and fibre board production and consumption Production increased paralleling investments The increase of fibreboard production is more striking, by 500% rise 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Amount 1000 m³

Particle board prod. Part. Board comsuption Fibre board prod. Fibre board consumption

(14)

Sawnwood production and consumption

• Sawnwood

production showed

flat trend between

1993 and 2001 • Since 2002, production and consumption have been increasing depending on increasing pallet and packing equipment demand • The increase of consumption is more visible • Hard sawnwood market seems to contract 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 199 3 199 4 199 5 199 6 199 7 199 8 199 9 200 0 200 1 200 2 200 3 200 4 200 5 200 6 200 7 200 8 200 9 201 0 201 1 201 2 Amount (1000 m³)

soft sawnwood borial hard sawnwood tropical hard sawnwood total consumption

(15)

Trade of wood products

Turkey is net importer

of wood products in

total.

Export value is lower than half of import

Chapter 44: Wood and

Articles of Wood; 287 240 282 230 329 168 230 335 561 791 929 11561159 731 1098 1428 1620 1575 86 76 72 69 64 109 114 143 200 246 303 455 535 ₅₁₀ 573 653 658 700 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 20 10 20 11 20 12 20 13Es. Value Million.$ Import Export

(16)

Trade of wood products by assortments

• Turkey is net importer

of roundwood, sawnwood and plywood • but exporter of secondary processed wood products • Import increase of

chips and sawnwood is

very sharp

• Chips import rise to 3

million mt. in 2012 from 50 thousands in 2002 316 147 222 39 112 323 299 161 0 4 13 28 74 295 14 232 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Value million $ Import Export

(17)

Trade of wood products

• Import and export

balance changed

absolutely in last

decade

Major reasons are;

• High cost of domestic

production including

taxation and transport

• Decrease of sawlog import depending on

restrictions

• Demand for high

quality sawlog 178 196 236 431 469 626 634 667 457 664 909 953 168 159 100 58 122 ₄₄ 49 ₂₈ _{39 41} _{27.5 29} 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1000 m³ Import Export

(18)

Wood energy – Woodpulp production

Wood Energy

In spite of incentives for energy generation from wood, there is

no substantial investment yet

The competitive and politic strength of panel industry beside

concerns about wood raw material availability are main factors

discourage investments

Woodpulp

Four plants closed in last decade because of insufficient

competitiveness and hard global market conditions

Only one is working with 75 000 mt production

 Paper and paper bord production, consumption and import

(19)

Certification

Total certificated forest area is 1.8 million hectare and

certification process is continuing in another 0.68 million ha

forest area

Felling from certificated forest is 2.4 million m³, equal to 15%of

totall felling

All certifications is by FSC

(20)

TÜRK_{prospects of markets}İYE’DE ODUN ARZ – TALEP DURUMU

Considering the increase of construction permits and high

performance of furniture sector, slightly market recovery can be

expected for 2014, but European market conditions and political

instability in middle east will be determining factors

Capacity expansion of panel industry likely to continue but at

lower speed. Possible investment in wood energy and cheaper

good import are main threats

The rapid increase of roundwood production from public forest

likely to continue

(21)

TÜRK_{Conclusion and prospects of}İYE’DE ODUN ARZ – TALEP DURUMU

Market developments in Turkey

Market

developments

in

Turkey

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