• No results found

The dialogue in foresight

N/A
N/A
Info
Download
Protected

Academic year: 2020

Share "The dialogue in foresight"

Copied!
18
0
0

Loading.... (view fulltext now)

Download now ( 18 Page )

Full text

(1)

Munich Personal RePEc Archive

The dialogue in foresight

Serbulescu, Radu

4 October 2012

(2)

!

"

"

# #

"

" $ % &

' "

$ % ' (

& '

)

" $ %

& *

( '

+

" $ % #

# ,

# &

-.

# !

/ &

(3)

4

2 % 6 ( 7 8 9 9

: !0 ,

7 ;; : !

! " !

+ !

< ,

( = 7>

? : . = %

!

* #

7 $- %: ( (

4 + 2 @ 7 54A ' B5A :

( 7 # : . @

!

@ % *

" !

#

" (

,

"

0

" @ %

" ,

@ %

% " C

C

7 :

B " #

# # =

7 ?>?' ;>D:

#

% "

# "

. 7 >?B: . 7 A 4: # ) ) ! 6 (

(4)

B

# 7 :

7 : * #

* #

#

#

*

# 2

C

% " #

*

5 " ! ) "

,

,

4

7 :

3

&

! " #

$

" % #

""" # &7 ;;4 ?:

(

! "

% @

0 ,

( $

" #

""" '

&7 ;;4 4E:

2

( @ #

(

4

" ( ) "

/ @ )

* F %

(

/ 7 ;D;:& G/ H

(5)

5 *

D !

# ,

% &

(

( #

"

( 0

!

+ !

(

I @ # ,

B

7 :

)

& , 7 : 7 :

7 :

% (

B

+ < - +

7 - ;5?: 3

J

&

& '

*

(6)

D "

5

"

#

-#

#

" #

*

= ,

" . D

* "&

& "

# C

C "

( ( 7 ;;>:

! 7 !: (

# & K2-' L) L ' M"

# &

7 ;: =

0 ! !N L'

# &

" !

# " % #

5

+ * 3

*

D

(7)

> ! 7 4 :

.

#

( &

7

( (: 7

(

( :

( , 7

:

" ,

+

& ( "

( .

( (

+

% &

( (

# ,

(

%

"

0

#

4 - % (

>

&

7 : 7

: "

( &

" ,

,

>

;5? (

" (

(8)

A

7 ( :0

,

7 : "

# 7 :

7 : "

A

( 7 : *

7 :

, 7 %

: &

"

% ( 0

7- : #

7 ;>E:

' ( 0

&

, $

, ( $ (

+ (

?

# 7 ( :

# 7 :0 (

J "

à

-;

7 ;?A: "

' (

A

" & - .

- 7 , ; D :

- @ "

# & - @

C )

.

% - ,

?

- -=J 7 ;>E:

;

= & C

( C #

(9)

? 7

: "

"

+

, 7 :

( % 7 ;;>:

" #

# 7 ;DA:

"

(

%

+

" $ % #

# ,

# &

" % . ,

(

" *

. E7 ;A5: *

7 :

M B D

, '

- #

3 (

# < - 74EE5 5:

# " %

# "

E

- & J - 0 7 ;A;:0 1

74EE5:0 ( 7 ;;>:

6 E 5E

( @

(10)

;

% # " %

(

&

# "

, &

(& B D

+ #

, * &

,

" *

, "

3 "

( ( 7 ;;>:& K2-'

L) L ' M" "

# (

K2-' L) L ' M" #

% =

' '

C "

' ' 0

&

./ 0 1

./ 0 1

1)1 = =

0 ,

3 1#

0 &

./ 0

./ 1# 1#/0 0

) )

1 1

1#

− − =

(11)

E

( " # 2 .

#3 41 7 : #32 7

* : " '*

7 : , 14 0 ./ #30 1/41 J

( 7 ,: , 0 1/0 5/4 0 ./ #3. "

7 9 ,:

360 *

L . 7 ;A5:

" #

# (&

+ *

#0 F

7 :

1#

0 #/4 .

(7 :&

+ 3

( *

" # , # , 0

#3 45 # 7

( 0 / &

" # .41

* 8

" , &

' #9 45 , # P

* 0

# 0

' #: 45 , # P

(12)

0

7 : %

+

C C

.

0

3

∆

, 0

7%:

∆

,

" , .<1<"""< %

# & " 7 : # + + 0 & 5 % 1 . 5 1 1 1 / . 0 . 1 + ≅ − + + = − + = −

∑

∆ ∆ ∆ ∆ "

0 0#3 45/ %<=0 <5/41>

∆

- 7 ;;>: &

"& %

" #

, &

L , & )

(13)

4

" =?>

!

( !

&

" (

"

# # "

" $ %

& '

"

$ % ' 7 ;?A: (

& '

)

" $ %

& *

( '

!0

! ! !

- ( * &

$ $

C # "

$ % $ % $ ' ( %

0 # $ %

* " $ %

,

$ % 7 ;; :

$ % #

0 "

. $ %

(

+

! 4 &

@ A

4

(14)

B

• @

# "

• @

# "

• @

! 7 J) -:

J * B&

( #

.

' (

-Q" 7- " :'

! 7JR R J ( 4EEA:

$ % !

! "

7 ( : !

- &

"

&

' (

M (

#

" (

"

L #

# ) #

" &

"

" *

( % !

( $ * %

B

(15)

5 .

$ ' % ( #

# #

" B &72J L 4EE>:

$) % #

" ,

1 7 ;;4:

, % "

7 # :

7$ %: & %

C .

%

5

=

0 , (

(

, * 7 (

: * 7

:

' ,

" ( 7 :

= # #

$ % *

( #

" % $ %

@ (

" $ %

@ &

* ,

- , #

5

& ) D

* 7 " %

(16)

D

" @

0 *

C ( , C #

C * "

0 *

J

4 ' # ,

' ( #

# "

,

" $ % "

, ( "

,

" ' ( #

"

( & 7 ;5A:0

' ( +

2 # !

% # "

" # $ %

( .

, ( " #

!

J 7 ;?>: ) ) A , C E

- M @

(17)

>

) / 7 ;>E: % A

- . J @

( 3 + !4EED: C # A

& + 1 1

( ! ;;>:B , L 1 ML

-) ) . @ 6 A ' ;;

) 7 ;;>:F 3 J

) 7 ;;4:% B 3 J

) 7 ;?E: F 3 J

= 7 ;5A:C , , 3 J / @

= 7 ;D?: % L K ( - %

-2 - 7 ;5?: , % )

-" 1 S 4A BA;C54B >4BC>D>

) = ! ;AB:+ B A ( 3 @ (

. - 2J L 74EE>: ( 4 4& B B ' '

. K 7 ;A5:% * & 4> L D

4?5 4?D

6 < ! ;?5: @ , A 3

<

< 74EEE: G ' A F

& 3 3 2 5F4EEE < ( ;>'4EE

< J + - + 74EE5: H &

1 M 2 2 D>74: B4A'B5D

-1 I ) ) J &

" ;A; E 5>A'5AD

1 7 ;A;: D ) ) B A

D + & ) D 7 ;A?: L B 4> ' BB0 > 7 ;A;: L D'4D0 > 7 ;A;: L 4 ;4' EB

1 7 ;;4:K B

3 '- 7 ;DD:% 7 @ @

= + + ! ;; : ' ) A *

3

-= ( / 7 ;A?: B

" ( M L M 6@ )

2 6 - Q @ " 7 ;DA: % ,

, M 3 M @

@ @ 7 ;;B: % ) % L % ) A

@ , ' # M - 1

J ( = (( 74EEA: B B @ " C

K ' ) & 1 .

@

- 3 74EEE: % A

& 1 2

" > 7 : ;'D4

- - 74EE5: B A # ' &

(18)

A

J ) J F * G < ( M

" & - 3 J J ??

- = 74EE>: , - -

-. ' " & ." @

References

Download now ( PDF - 18 Page - 293.85 KB )

Related documents

Influence of Parser Choice on Dependency Based MT

The dependency trees needed for training the parsers and evaluating their UAS were created from the Penn Treebank data (enriched first with internal noun phrase structure applied

MANA for the Ageing

The initial MANA Calendar application util- izes Head X to provide a talking head companion with an interface to Google Calendar, allowing doctors/carers to enter

Extraction of biomedical events using case based reasoning

The automatic analysis of the false positive and false negative mistakes is a hard task since no hint is given for the reason of the mistake by the evaluation system, if due to

Simpsons Hospital, OSV 0000096, 25 July 2018

Prior to the inspection, the person in charge completed the self-assessment and scored the service against the requirements of the Health Act 2007 (Care and Welfare of Residents

Semi Endogenous R&D Growth Model with Negative Population Growth

This paper investigates the rates of technological progress, total output growth, and per capita output growth when population growth is negative by using a semi-endogenous

Effect of Process Parameter Variation on Purity during Rotary Fractional Crystallization of Aluminum

The experimental profile of the crystallization temperature at different initial melt, initial temperature and different cooling gas flow rate without rotation of the

Design of the Brushless DC Motor Driving System Based on STM32

The current position of the rotor is the key information to control motor rotation which is measured by the hall sensor.. According to the three hall element level sequence,