Probabilistic Modeling of Robotic and Automated Systems Operating in Cosmic Space

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: s d r o w y e

K Analysis,Complex,Modeilng,Probablitiy,Reilablitiy,System.

.t c a r t s b

A Thepresented work is devoted to the application ofprobabilisticmodeling roboticand s

m e t s y s d e z i t a m o t u

a operating incosmicspace ,andt heirseparatesubsystemsandelements .Auseof d

i o v a o t s w o l l a h c a o r p p a d e s o p o r

p engineeringerrorsa tearly stagesofprojec tconcep tand design .

s t c e f f e e l b a r i s e d h c a e r o t d n a

n o it c u d o r t n I

m o r

F engineering poin tofviewroboticand automatized systems operating incosmicspaceare .

s m e t s y s e v i s n e p x e d n a x e l p m o c y r e

v Todayexpensesfort heiroperationusecanbesomet ensUSD r

o

f 1 grammeof theweigh tdeduced in space .Systemsshould operatereliably becauseof cosmic r

o f , y t i l a u q e s i a r o T . y t i c i f i c e p s e c a p

s testing these systems supporting viability of cosmonauts , e

h t f i , d n A . d e t a e r c e b d l u o h s s l e d o m e u q i n u r e h t o d n a s n r e t t a

p valuesofsystemmetricsof their

e m i t t l u s e r a s A . n i a g a s k r o w l l a m r o f r e p o t s d e e n t i , e l b a t p e c c a t o n e r a ) y t i l i b a i l e r g n i d u l c n i ( y t i l a u q

s n o i t s e u q o t s r e w s n a r o f d e s u e r a s l e d o m l a c i t a m e h t a m t n e r e f f i d e r o f e r e h T . d e t s a w e r a y e n o m d n a

W

« hat acceptablel eve lofquality(reliability)shouldbese tandwhatl eveli sachievable?» . f

o s e g a t s y l r a e t a n o i t a c i l p p a r o

F projectconcep tanddesignt heapproachf ort hesystemanalysisof

c i t o b o

r systemsand automatized systemofcosmonau tviability suppor t(ASCVS)isproposed .The 1

[ s l e d o m c i t s i l i b a b o r p g n i t s i x e y d a e r l a f o e s u e h t n o d e s a b s i h c a o r p p

a - 11 ] ,createdbyauthorsoft his

: s r e v o c h c a o r p p a e h T . s n o i t a c i l p p a f o s d l e i f s u o i r a v n i d e v o r p p a d n a r e i l r a e k r o w

f o e c i o h c e h

t probabilisticmodelsconsideringspecificityofoperatingi ncosmicspace; c

f o s i s y l a n a y t i l i b a i l e r e h

t ontro lsystem of the robot-manipulator which due to be used by ;

t u a n o m s o c

f o s i s y l a n a y t i l i b a i l e r e h

t ASCVSelementsoperation;

m o r f d e s o p m o c , m e t s y s x e l p m o c f o s i s y l a n a y t i l i b a i l e r e h

t robotic and automatized systems ,

e c a p s c i m s o c n i g n i t a r e p

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f o e c i o h C e h

T ProbablisiitcModel sCon isderingSpeciifctiy

f o y t i c i f i c e p s d e r e d i s n o c e h

T cosmonau tworksi nspaceou tofcosmicstationi st henext.Takingi nto r a c f o y r e v i l e d r o f s e s n e p x e t n u o c c

a goes probabilistic analysis is carried ou tby the metrics : x i s ( s r u o h 8 4 d n a ) k r o w t u a n o m s o c f o n o i s s e s e n o ( s r u o h 8 g n i r u d n o i t a r e p o e l b a i l e r f o s e i t i l i b a b o r p . ) F B T M ( s e r u l i a f e r o f e b e m i t n a e m d n a ) s n o i s s e s f o s n o i t a m i t s e c i t s i l i b a b o r p r o

F roboticandautomatizedsystems inapplicationt ogivenprognositc : t e s s i t n e m e l e y r e v e r o f s t n e v e y r a t n e m e l e o w t f o e c a p s d e t i m i l t x e n e h t s r u o h 8 4 d n a 8 s d o i r e p e r a s n o i t c a e m o s d n a s i e r u l i a f e h t e c n o t s a e l t a n e h w ( ” n o i t i d n o c e l b a i l e r n u “ d n a ” n o i t i d n o c e l b a i l e r “

neededforrecovering“reliablecondition”) . t s n i a g a n o i t c e t o r P “ s l e d o m c i t s i l i b a b o r p e h

T dangerousi nfluences” ,“Reliability”and“Prediction ” y t i l a u q x e l p m o c e h t f

o fromsoftwaret oolscomplex“Modellingofprocesses” ,developedofauthors k r o w s i h t f

o ,andi deasf ornewmodelsgenerations[ 1- 11 ]arechosen.I tallowst oestimatet hemetrics 2 y g o l o n h c e t l a r e n e g e r o m d n a ) y t i r g e t n i m e t s y s f o c i t s o n g a i d e v i t c a o r p ( 1 y g o l o n h c e t r o f t n e m e l e m e t s y s a f o y r e v o c e r e h t c i t s o n g a i d t x e n e h t r e t f A . ) g n i r o t i n o m

( isstarted ,ifneeded .The

i : t x e n e h t s i 2 y g o l o n h c e t f o r e f f i

d f results of monitoring have revealed symptoms of failure e h t , ) s e i l a m o n a

( recovery of the integrity is started beforethe beginning thenex tdiagnostic .For m e t s y s x e l p m o c e h t f o n o i t a m i t s

e swith paralle lor seria lstructure existing modelsaredeveloped 1

[ - 11 .]

1 [ s n o i t a m i t s e c i t s i l i b a b o r p r o f d e s u e r a s c i r t e m t x e n e h

T - 11 ] :

r o s m e t s y s b u s l l a d o i r e p c i t s o n g o r p n e v i g g n i r u d e m i t l l a f i ( n o i t a r e p o e l b a i l e r f o y t i l i b a b o r p c i g o l h t i w s t n e m e l

e connection"AND"arein elementaryeven t“reliablecondition”ora tleas tone y r a t n e m e l e n i s i " R O " n o i t c e n n o c c i g o l g n i s u n o i t a v r e s e r h t i w n o i t c u r t s n o c l e l l a r a p m o r f t n e m e l e ; ) ” n o i t i d n o c e l b a i l e r “ t n e v e t g n i r u d e c n o t s a e l t a f i ( e r u l i a f f o y t i l i b a b o r

p hisgivenperiodt hefailurewil lbe)- asadditiont o1 e

h

t probabilityofreliableoperation;

. m e t s y s e l o h w d n a t n e m e l e y r e v e r o f F B T M 1 [ e r a a t a d t u p n i e h

T - 11 ]:t hegiven prognosticperiod(8or48hours);t hefrequencyofanomalies ; i t a v i t c a n a e m e h

t ontime(fromanomalytofailure) ;thetimebetween theend ofdiagnosticandthe c i t s o n g a i d e h t ; c i t s o n g a i d t x e n e h t f o g n i n n i g e

b andrecoverytime ;onlyfort echnology2– themean f o g n i r o t i n o m s u o u n i t n o c g n i r u d r o r r e s ’ r o t a r e p o n e e w t e b e m i

t robotic a nd automatized systems

. s n o i t i d n o c

Reilablitiy Analy is so fContro lSystem o fthe Robot-manipulator Which Due to b e Used by Cosmonaut

t n g i s e d t c e j o r p e m o s a r o

F hecontro lsystemoft herobot-manipulator (composedfromanoperato 'rs t , t i n u r e w o p a , e l o s n o

c hecentra lcontrollerwith the handleofcontro land manipulatormeans)is . d e z y l a n a e h t f o m e t s y s l o r t n o c f o e t a t s e h

T robot-manipulator is defined as elementary state “Reliable ” n o i t i d n o

c if the states of subsystem 1 (an operato 'rs console) ,a subsystem 2 (a power unit) ,a h t i w r e l l o r t n o c l a r t n e c ( 3 m e t s y s b u

s a handle of control) are characterized as elementary state f o t n e m e l e e n o t s a e l t a f o e t a t s e h t d n a ” n o i t i d n o c e l b a i l e R

“ subsystem 4 (manipulatormeans)is

e t a t s y r a t n e m e l e s a d e z i r e t c a r a h

c “Reliablecondition” .Componentsofsubsystem4are :ahingeof a ; y e k f o g n i v o

r hingeofshoulder ;a hingeofr ovingofelbow;t hehingeofelbow ;ahingeofr ovingof ;

h s u r

b a hingeofbrushes ;a hingeofbrushrotation ;a deviceforgrasping; videocamera. e

h

T frequencyofanomaliesi si naverage1t imesayear ,themeanactivationt ime( fromanomalyt o . s y a d 3 t u o b a s i ) e r u l i a

f The time between the end of diagnostic and the beginning of the nex t e m i t y r e v o c e r , s h t n o m 2 t u o b a s i c i t s o n g a i

d - abou t2days .

u s e

R ltsofmodelinghaveshownt hefollowing(seeFigure1):

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u q e s i s r u o h 8 g n i r u d 4 , … , 1 x e l p m o c f o n o i t a r e p o e l b a i l e r f o y t i l i b a b o r

p alt o0.979;

5 6 9 . 0 o t l a u q e s i s r u o h 8 4 g n i r u d 4 , … , 1 x e l p m o c f o n o i t a r e p o e l b a i l e r f o y t i l i b a b o r

p .

t o b o r e h t f o m e t s y s l o r t n o c a g n i l e d o m f o s t l u s e R . 1 e r u g i

F -manipulator.

A y ti li b a il e

R naly is so fASCVSElements Opera iton

f o e r u t c u r t s c i g o l e h

T ASCVS for modeling is presented on Figure 2. For modeling the mean o

t y l a m o n a m o r f ( e m i t n o i t a v i t c

a failure)i sabou t3days .Systeml ifeofexploitationi sfrom8hour .

) s n o i s s e s 6 ( s r u o h 8 4 o t ) n o i s s e s e n o

( Thet imebetweent heendofdiagnosticandt hebeginningof ,

h t n o m 1 t u o b a s i c i t s o n g a i d t x e n e h

t the time of system recovering is estimated abou t1 hour h

t i w e l b a r u s n e m m o c

( ASCVSassemblagefromreadycomponents).Onl ogicstructuresubsystem1 ,

) s e d o m t o h d n a d l o c r o f ( n o i t a v r e s e r h t i w s r o t a l i t n e v o w t s e d u l c n

i subsystem2performsf unctionsof

O C f o k c o l b

a 2absorption ,subsystem3performsf unctionsofahea texchanger ,subsystem4( forcold

w o l e b e n i l : n o i t a v r e s e r g n i r e d i s n o c s e n i l l e l l a r a p o w t s e d u l c n i ) s e d o m t o h d n

a - oxygencylinderand

e g y x o f o s t i n u o w

t nequipment ;l ineabove- oxygencylinderwithemergencystockandt wounitsf or .

y c n e g r e m e

e e s ( g n i w o l l o f e h t n w o h s e v a h g n i l e d o m f o s t l u s e r 4 , … , 1 x e l p m o c r o

F Figure3) :

- withho treservationMTBF=22.5h ,withcoldreservationMTBF=26.1h;

- probabilityofreliableoperationduring8hoursi sequalt o0.71forho treservationandt o0.74for n

o i t a v r e s e r d l o

c ;

- probabilityofreliableoperationduring48hoursi sequalt o0.31forho treservationandt o0.34for .

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e v e l w o l m r i f n o c s t l u s e

R lofreliabilityandveryhighrisksforviabilityduring6sessions(48hours) f

o cosmonauts .Fori ncreasingreliabilityt hemeanswithmorehighMTBFshouldbeused.

e r u g i

F 2 .Typica lstructureofASCVSandformalization.

o m S V C S A f o s t l u s e R . 3 e r u g i

F deling.

m o r f d e s o p m o C , m e t s y S x e l p m o C f o s is y l a n A y ti li b a il e

R Robo itcand Automa itzed Systems , e

c a p S c i m s o C n i g n it a r e p O

s t l u s e

R ofmodelingcomplexsystem ,composedfromroboticandautomatizedsystems,operatingi n e

c a p s c i m s o

c haveshownt hefollowing(seeFigure4):

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d e z i t a m o t u a d n a c i t o b o r m o r f d e s o p m o c , m e t s y s x e l p m o c f o n o i t a r e p o e l b a i l e r f o y t i l i b a b o r p

s m e t s y

s isabou t0.23duringonesession(8hours)andabou t0.10duringsixsessions(48hours). e

r a s e r u l i a f e h

T inevitable .

m o r f d e s o p m o c , m e t s y s x e l p m o c g n i l e d o m f o s t l u s e R . 4 e r u g i

F roboticandautomatizedsystems, e

c a p s c i m s o c n i g n i t a r e p

o .

d e s o p m o c , m e t s y s x e l p m o c f o y t i l i b a i l e r g n i s a e r c n i r o f s n o i s i c e d t c e j o r p w e n f o h c r a e s e r : e m u s e R

m o r

f roboticandautomatizedsystems,operatingi ncosmicspacewitht heproofoft heirefficiencyon !

d e r i u q e r s i g n i l l e d o m f o s i s a b e h t

n o is u l c n o C f o d a e t s n I

h c r a e s e r o t s w o l l a g n i l e d o m c i t s i l i b a b o r p d e s o p o r p e h

T roboticandautomatizedsystems operaitng in

t d n a , e c a p s c i m s o

c heirseparatesubsystemsand elements .Itallowstoavoidengineering errorsa t n

g i s e d d n a t p e c n o c t c e j o r p f o s e g a t s y l r a

e andhelpst oreachdesirableeffects.

s e c n e r e f e R

] 1

[ A.I .Kostogryzov ,G.A .Nistratov ,Standardization ,mathematica lmodeling,r ationa lmanagement 5 3 , s l e d o m l a c i t a m e h t a m 0 0 1 ( g n i r e e n i g n e e r a w t f o s d n a m e t s y s f o d l e i f e h t n i n o i t a c i f i t r e c d n a

.t n e m a m r A “ , ) s l o o t e r a w t f o

s Policy.Conversion” ,Moscow ,2005 . .

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[ Kostogryzov ,andP.V .Stepanov,I nnovativemanagemen tofqualityandr isksi n systemsl ife “

, e l c y

c Armament .Policy .Conversion” ,Moscow ,2008 . v

o l y r K . V , v o z y r g o t s o K . A ] 3

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o f s k s i r d n a y t i l a u q e z i m i t p o d n a e z y l a n a , t s a c e r o f o t s e i g o l o n h c e t e l b a c i l p p a d n a s l e d o

m complex

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0

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O Processes in Quality Management” ,Tota lQuality Managemen tand Six Sigma , 7

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A ,Innovative Managemen tBased on Risks Prediction ,Information Engineering and e

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m e t s y S x e l p m o C r o f n o i t a z i m i t p O s e s s e c o r P d n a n o i t c i d e r

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s k s i R f o e s u o h e r o t S e h t g n i m r o F d n a s l e d o M c i t s i l i b a b o r P f o n o i t a r e n e G d n a n o i t a n i b m o C

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