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k i

n

_{g V}

o

l

u

m

e = 1

0 0 0

M

G

6 1

3

. 1

0

G

r a

p h

of

S

to r a

g

e s v e r s u s

T i m

e

f

o r t

h

e Ex

i

st

in

g S

yste

m

w

i

t

h S

_{Q W}

o r

k i

n_g

V

olu

m

e =

2

4,

0 0 0

M

G

6 3

3

. 1

1

G

r a

p

h of

S

to r age s v e r s u s

T i m

e fo r t

h

e

M

o

d

i f ie

d S y

ste

m

w ith S

_Q

W

o rk in_g

V

olu

m

e = 2 4,

0

0

0

M

G

64

4

.

1

O

W

A SA

'

s

P

r o

_j

e c te

d A

v e r a_ge D ai l

_y

W

ate r De

m

a n

d

s ₇

₀

4.2 Pote ntial Y iel d Ov e r T i

m

e 7 2

4.

3

C

apa c

i

ty Expa n sio n P

l

a n ning w it

h

Re str

i

cte

d S

Q

Expan s

i

o n

a n

d

L

i

n e a r

D

e

m

a n

d P

r o

_j

e ct

i

on s

7

4

4.

4

C

apa c

i

ty

E

x

p

a n sio n P la n n

i

n

g

w

i

t

h U

n r e str

i

cte

d S

Q

Ex

p

a nsio n

a n

d L i

n e a r

D

e

m

a n

d P

r o

j

ec t

i

o n s

7 5

4.5 C apa c ity Expa n sio n P la n ning w ith Re str

i

cte

d

S

Q

Ex

p

an sio n

a n

d G

e o

m

etric

D

e

m

a n d Pr o

j

e ctio n s 7

7

4

.

6

C

a

p

a c

i

ty

E

x

p

a ns

i

on

P l

a n n

i

n

g

w

i

t

h U

n r es tr

i

cte

d S

Q

E

x

p

a ns

i

on

a n

d G

e o

m

e tr

i

c

D

e

m

an

_{d P}

r o

j

ec t

i

o ns

7 8

1

I

N

T

R O

D

U C

T I

O N

T he

O

r a n_ge

W

ate r a n

d Se

we r

A

utho

ri

t_y

₍

O

W

A SA

₎

_pr o v

i de s

w ate r a n

d

s ewe r

s e r vic e s to the c o

m m

u nitie s of C ha

_p

el

H

i l l a nd Ca r r

b

o r o . T he wate r s up p l y and sto r age s_yste

m

c o n sists of tw o r e s e r v oir s

₍

Univ e r sit_y Lake a n d

C

a n e Cr e ek

₎

in two

di

f

fe r e nt wate r sheds

_p

lu s a th ir

d

r e s e r v o

i

r

w

it

h

n o n atu r a

l

s u rfa c e s u_ppl y o

f i

ts o

w

n . T he

O

W

A SA

r e s e r v oir s_yste

m

is s

h

own s che

m

at

ic a

l l y in F i gu r e 1. 1.

T he Un

iv e r s

i

t_{y L}a

k

e

(

U

L

)

r e s e r v oir is

l

o c ate

d

a

_{p p}

r o xi

m

a tel y o n e

m i

le

f

r o

m

t

h

e

wate r t re atme nt

p

la nt

(

W

T

P

)

in

C

a r r

b

oro,

N C

. T

h

e st o ra

g

e c a

p

a c

i

t

y o

f U

n

iv e r s

i

t_{y L} a

k

e

i

s

60 0 m

i l Uo n

_g

al

l

o n s

(M

G

)

.

C

a n e

C

r e ek

(

C C

)

r e s e r v o

i

r

i

s

l

o c ate

d

ne a r

N C H i g h

wa

y

5 4

a

b

o ut

1

1

m

i le s

w

e st o

f

the

W

T P a nd ha s a c a

_p

a cit_y o

f 3 0 0 0

M

G

. T he t

hi

r

d

r e s e r v o

i

r,

St

o n e

Q

u a r r_y

(

S

Q

)

,

i

s a n a

b

a n

d

o n e

d p

o rt

io n

o

f

an a c tiv e

q

u a r ry s

i

te w

i

th a c a

p

a c

i

ty o

f 2 0 0

M

G

.

A

s the

q

u a r r

y s

i

te ex_pa n

d

s

in th

e

f

utu r e,

O

W

A SA p

oten tia

l

l y c an a c

q

u

ir e

e a s e

m

en ts

f

o r

i

n cr e a s

i

n_g sto r a

_g

e vo

lu

m

e s o v e r t

i m

e.

T

h

e

_p

r

i

nc

i

_pa

l

r es er v o

ir s

o

f

t

h

e s_yste

m

a r e

U

n

i

v e r s

i

t_{y L}a

k

e a n

d C

a n e

C

r e ek . As

c a n

be

se e n

f

r o

m

F

i

_gu r e 1. 1, the s e a r e t

h

e o n

l

y r e s e r v o

ir s

f

r o

m

w hi

ch

d ir e c

t r e

le a s e s

c a n

b

e

m

a

d

e to

m

e et

d

e

m

a n

d

s at the

W

T P.

S

to n e

Q

u a r r

y

i

s c u r r e ntl_y u s e

d

o nl y a s a

b

a cku

_p

r e s e r v o

i

r fo r e

m

e r_ge n c_y s u_p

_p

l y.

U

n

i

v e r s

i

t_{y L}a

k

e an

d C

a n e

C

r e e

k

r e s e r v o

i

r s e a c

h

r e c e

iv e

n atu r a

l i

n

fl

o

w

s o

f

s u r

f

a ce

wate r

f

r o

m

the

i

r r e s_pe ctiv e dr ain a_ge ba sin s.

St o

n e

Q

uar r

y, o n the othe r

h

and, do e s n ot

h

a v e a

d

r aina_ge a r e a, a n

d

a s s u c h, r e c e

i

v e s n o n atu r al

in

fl

o

w

s.

H

o

w

e v e r

F i g

u

r e

1

.

1

S

c

h

e

m

a

_t

i

c

o

f

t

h

e

O

W

A SA

R

e s e r v o

i

r

Sy

s

t

e

m

to

W

h

o

l

e s a

l

e

D

e

m

a n

d

C

h

a

_p

e

l H

i

l l

C

a r r

b

o r o

D

e

m

a n

d

U

n

i

v e r s

i

t

_{y L}

a

k

e

(

6

0

0

/ 4

5

0

M

G

₎

T

o

D

o

w

n s

t

r e a

m

S

t

o n e

Q

u a r r

_y

(

2 0 0

M

G

₎

N

o

d

e

N

—

_Pu

_{m p i}

_n

g

St

atio n

M

o r

_g

a n

C

r e e

k

P

h

i

l

'

s

C

r e e

k

T

o

D

o

w

n s

t

r e a

m

C

a n e

C

r e e

k

C

a n e

C

r e e

k

T he _p

ri

m

a r_{y p}u r_po s e o

f

the r e s e r v oir s_yste

m

is

w

ate r s u_{p p l y}.

A

s a r e s ult, t

h

e

m

a

j

o r o

_p

e r at

in

_g

c o n str a

i

nt o n the s_yste

m

is to s at

i

s

f

_y t

h

e r e s

i d

e nt

i

a

l

a n

d i

n st

i

tut

i

o n a

l

w ate r

de

m

a n

d

s o

f

the

C

ha

_p

el

H i

U-

C

_{a r r}

b

_{o r o a r e a}

. B oth

U

n

i

v e r sit

y L ak e a n

d C

a n e

C

r e e

k

a r e a

l

so

u s ed fo r

b

o atin_g a nd r e c r e atio n

_p

u r_po s e s, Umitin g the a

m

o u nt

b

y w h ich the r e s e r v oir s c a n

be dr aw n

d

own . Fu rthe r

m

o r e, a s w at er le v els a r e

d

r awn

d

own , the a e sthetic qu a

h

ty of t

h

e

w ate r

d

eteri o r ate s. T

h

e n o r

m

al o

p

e r at

i

ng

p

o

h

cy at

O

WA SA i

s to r e str

ic

t the

m

a x

i m

u

m

w ate r le v el dr aw

d

o

w

n to 10 fe et at

C

a n e

C

r e ek a nd 1 2

f

e et at

U

n

iv e r s

it_{y L}a

k

e,

w

h ic

h

c o r r e s_po n

d

s to a

C

a n e

C

r e e

k

_w o rk in

_g

v olu

m

e of a

b

o ut 13 0 0

M

G

a n

d

a

U

n

i

v e r s

it

_y

L

a

k

e

w or

k i

n

_g

v o

lu

m

e o

f

a

b

o ut

4 50

M

G

.

T

h

e

O

W

A SA

r ese r v oir s_yste

m p

r e s e nt

l

_y cate rs to a n a v e r a

_g

e _w at er

d

e

m

a n

d

o

f

a_p

_p

r o xi

m

ate

l

_{y 7}.

5 m Uh

o n

gal lo n s

_p

e r

d

a_y

(M

G

D

)

. T

he

C

ha

p

el

H

U l

-C_{a r r}

bo r o

_{a r e a} h_{a s}

e x

_p

eri e n c e

d

c o n si

d

e r a

b

le

d

e v elo_p

m

e nt in r e c e nt

d

e c a

d

e s, a n

d

t

h i

s tr e n

d i

s e xpe cte

d

to

c o nt

in u e

w

e

U i

nto the

f

utu r e.

A

c c o r

di

n

g to o ne s tu

d

_y, wate r

d

e

m

a n

d

s a r e

p

r o

j

e cte

d

t o

i

n c r e a s e at a

_g

e o

m

etri c

_g

r o

w

th r ate of a

b

o ut

2

.

5 p

e r c e nt

pe r a n n u

m

[

B

l

a c

k & V

e atch,

19 9

2

_]

.

W

i

th s u ch a r a

p

i d

l y

g

r ow

i

n

_{g m}

a r

k

et,

O

W

A SA h

a s r ecogniz e

d

t

h

at

i

t

m

u st p lan

now

f

o r the e x

_p

a n s

i

o n o

f i

ts

w

ate r s u

_{p p ly}

a n

d

sto r a

_g

e s_yste

m

.

T he o_ptio n s a v a

i

la

b

le to O

W

A SA

fo r

i

n c r e a sin_g its lo n_g-te r

m

w_at_{e r}

s u_p

_{p l y}

c a

_p

a c

it

_y

b

a s

i

c a

l l

_y c o n s

i

st of

m

o r e

f

ull

_{y d}

e v e

lo

_p

in

_g

the e xist

in

_g so u r c e s o r

d

e v e

l

o

_{p i}

n _g n e

w

s o u r c e s o uts

i d

e t

h

e

_p

r e s e n t wate r s

h

e

ds

.

M

o r e s

p

e c

i f i

cal l

y ,

O

W

A SA

h

as tw o

m

a

in

e x

_p

ans

i

o n a

l

te r n ativ e s u n

d

e r c o n si

d

e r at

io n :

₍

1

₎

e x

_p

a n

d in

_g

St

o n e

Q

u a r r_{y ;} a n

d

(

2

)

ta

_{p p i}

n

_g

J

o r

d

a n La

k

e

(

J

L

)

. In c r e a s e

d d

e

m

an

ds c a n

a

ls o

b

e

m

et

b

y

i

n c r e a sin _g the wo r

k

in_g v o

l

u

m

e s

of Ca n e

_C

r e ek a n

d U

niv e r sit_{y L} ake r e s e r v oir s.

H

owe v e r

, th is wo ul

d

r e s ult

i

n po o r e r

O

WA SA i

s

_p

r e s e n

d

_y see

k i

n

_g

a

_{p p}

rov a

l

fr o

m lo c a

l e

le c

te

d

of fi cia

l

s of its _p

l

a n for

the Sto n e

Q

u a r r_y e x_pansio n

[

Ea ste r_{l y}, 19 94

]

.

A p p

r o v al of t

h

e pr o

p

o s al w o ul d a

l

low the

A m

e ric a n St on e

C

o

m

_pa n_y to e x _pa nd its

_q

u a r r_y o

_p

e r atio n , lo c ated of

f N C

5 4 a

b

o ut 5

m

i le s

we st of

C

a r r

b

o r o, o nto

6 0

a c r e s of

O

W

A SA

-_ow_{n e}

d

l_{a n}

d

. T he c o

m p

any wo ul

d

ex c a v ate

a

b

o u t 2

5

a c r e s o

f

t

h

at

_p

r o

_p

e rt

_y

. T

h

is wo u

l d

ke e

p

t

h

e qu a r r

y

in ope r at

i

o n u nt

i l

a

b

o ut t

h

e

ye a r 2

0 3 0

. Du rin

g t

h

at t

i m

e, e x c a v at

i

o n s of v a rio u s v olu

m

e s

w

o ul

d b

e

m

ad

e a v a

i

lab le to

O

WA S A i

n sta_ge s. It is e stim ate

d

that o n c e t

h

e qu a r ry ing w a s c o

m

p lete, up to

3 b

i l Ho n

gal lo n s of total sto r a_ge w o ul d be a v ai lab

l

e at Sto n e

_Q

u a r r_y.

T

h

e

_q

u a r r_y e x

_p

a n s

i

o n

_p

la n wo ul

d

r e

_q

u

i

r e a

_{p p}

r o v a

l f

r o

m

t

h

e

_g

o v e r n

i

n

_{g b}

o

d i

e s of

C h

a_pe

l H i l l

,

C

a r r

b

o r o, a n

d O

r a n

g

e

C

o u nty

b

eca u s e t

h

e

q

u a r ry

Ue s

i

n t

h

e

j

o

i

n t

pl

a n n

i

ng

a r e a o

f

al l thr e e. It

is

e xpe c te

d

to

b

e a bo

d

y debate

d

top ic.

M

a ny r e si

d

e nts of t

h

e r u r a

l

a r e a n e a r t

h

e

_q

u a r r_y a r e a_gainst t

h

e

_p

r o_po s al, s ay

i

ng t

h

at

b la s

t

in

g

h

a s alr e a

d

y

d

a

m

age

d

w el ls a n

d h

o

m

e

f

o u n

da

ti

o n s

[

Ea ste r_{l y} ,

19 9

4

]

.

O

WA SA i

s

p

u s

hi

n

g

fo r t

h

e e x

p

ans

i

o n of

Sto n e

Q

u a r r_y, u sin_g the fol

l

ow in_g a r_gu

m

e nts :

(

1

₎

the a

dd

it

i

on al s t or a

_g

e w ou

l d i

n c rea s e w ate r s u_{p p}

l

_y c a_pa c

i

t_y,

(

2

₎

t

h

e a

d d i ti

o na

l

sto r a

_g

e wo u

l d

_pr o v

i d

e o

_p

erat

i

o n a

l f le x

i b i l i

t_y,

(

3

₎

the Sto n e

Q

u a r r_y r e s e r v oir

w

o ul

d p

r o vi

d

e sto r a

_g

e of h

_{i g h}

e r

_q

u al

i

t_{y w} ate r

_{w i}

th Ktde cha n c e of c o nta

m

in a

ti

o n o r

_q

u a

U

t_y

de

_gr a

d

atio n , a n

d

,

(

4

₎

the

b

et te r

_q

u al it_{y w} ate r

i m p

l ie s r e

d

u c e

d

tr e at

m

e nt c o sts.

T he

_p

ote n

ti

a

l

r ate o

f

e x

_p

ans

i

o n o

f S

to n e

Q

u a r r

_{y i}

s r o u

_{g h l}

_y e st

i m

ate

d

to

b

e

7 5

M

G

p

er _year

in

t

h

e

f

o r

m

o

f

n ew e xc av a

ti

o n s.

U

n

d

e r t

h

e c u r r e nt p

i

p

in

g c o n

f i

gu r a

ti

o n ,

S

Q

e x _pa n sio n s w o ul d s e r v e to a u_g

m

e nt the sto r a_ge of the Ca n e Cr e ek w ate r she

d

o n

l

_y .

O

n

the othe r ha n

d

, i f the syste

m

w a s

m

o

d

i fi ed to a

l l

ow

S

to n e

Q

u a r ry to als o r e c eiv e

p

u

m

pe

d

fl

ow s

fr o

m U L

_, a

d d i ti

ona

l S

_Q

stora

_g

e w o u

l d

a u

_gm

e nt sto r a

_g

e c a

_p

a c

i

t

_{y i}

n

b

oth Can e

O

W

A S A h

a s alr e a

d

_y tak e n ste_ps to

d

e v e

l

o_{p J}o r

d

a n La

k

e a s a lo n_g-_{te r}

m w

_{ate r}

s o u r c e. It ha s r e c eiv ed a 10

-

M

G D w_{ate r a}l l_{o c at}i_{o n} f_{r o}

m

th_e

N

_{o rt}

h

C

_{a r o}l in_a En vir o n

m

e ntal

M

a n a_ge

m

e nt

C

o

m m

is sio n

[

O

W

A SA

,

19 9 3

]

. T h is al lo c atio n is its shar e of

a 1

9

-

M

G

D

,

j

oint al lo c atio n to Or ange

-A l_a

m

_{a n c e}

W

_ate r

S

yste

m

In c.,

O

r a nge

C

o u nty, C hatha

m

C

o u nt_y , a n

d

the T own of

H

i

l l

s

b

o r o ug

h

.

O

W

A SA

h

a s a

l

so

p

u rc

h

a s e

d

a_p

_p

r o x

im

a te

l

_y

12 5

a c r e s o

f

la n

d

n e a r

Jo r

d

a n Lake. Fu rt

h

e r

m

o r e,

O

W

A SA

c o n tr a cte

d

C H 2

M

H

I L

L i

n

19 9 1

to con

du c

t a n

in v e s

t

i

_gat

io n

o

f

c a n

d i d

ate s

it

e s

f

o r the r aw w ate r

in ta

k

e str u ctu r e

[

C H

2

M

H

I L L ,

19 9

1

]

.

In

i

tial l y, the

de v e

lo

p m

e n tp

l

a n c a

l

ls fo r a r aw w ate r

p

u

m p

statio n to

be

c o n str u cte

d

at t

h

e Jo r

d

a n Lake site, s u

pp l y

in

g w ate r to

U

n

i

v e r sity Lake o r d

i

r e ct

l

y to the e x

i

sting w ate r tr ea t

m

e nt

_{p l}

a nt.

U l

t

im

ate

l

y, a n ew

W

T

P

m

ay

be

b

u

i l

t o n the

Jo

r

d

a n

L

a

k

e s

i

t e.

I

n

the c o n s u

l

tin_g e n_g

i

n e e r's r e

_p

o rt, a rec o

m m

e n

d

atio n was

m

a

d

e fo r t

h

e lo ca tio n of the

i

ntake

str u ctu r e, p i

p

el in e c o r ri

d

o r s, a n

d p

u

m p

statio n s. Fo r

g

ui

d

a n c e in

p

r o

j

e ct e v a

l

u atio n an

d

i

_{m p}

le

m

e n tat

io n

, the r epo rt als o in clu

d

e

d

a pr e

li

m

in a ry c o st e sti

m

ate fo r c o n str u ctio n of

the

i

nta

k

e a n

d

tr a n s

m i

s sio n s

_y

ste

m b

a s e

d

o n a sin

_{g l}

e

d

e s

i g

n of the

_p

r o

_p

o s e

d i

nta

k

e s

_y

ste

m

.

In a

d di

t

i

o n , a

p

r opo s e

d

pr o

j

e ct s che

du

le

wa s pr e s e nte

d

,

i

n

d

ic ating t

h

at a

5

to

8

-ye a r

i m p l

e

m

e ntat

i

o n

_p

e r

io

d

wo u

l d b

e r e

_q

u

i

r e

d

to c o

m p l

ete t

h

e

_p

ro

_j

e c t,

i

n c

l

u

d i

ng c o n str uctio n.

T h

e e sti m ate

d

total c a_p

it

a

l

c o sts

f

o r the _pr o_po s e

d

wate r s u_{p p l y} a n

d

tr a n s

m i

s sio n

s_yste

m

wa s _g

iv e n

a s

19 m i l

ho n

d

ol la r s

(

in

A

u_gu st

1 99

1

d

ol la r s

)

. T

hi

s

i

s a n o r

d

e r o

f

m

a

_g

nitu

de

e sti

m

ate o

f

t

h

e c a

_{p i}

ta

l

c o sts a s s o ciate

d

w

it

h

ta

_{p p i}

n

_{g J}

o r

d

a n La

k

e. It

is

e x _pe cte

d

to

b

e a c c u r ate w

i

thin +

5 0

to -

3 0

pe r c e nt.

T

his e sti m ate

i

n c lu

de s c o n s

tr u ct

i

on,

e n_g

i

n e e r

i

n_g,

l

e

g

al a n

d

a

dm i

n

is

tr ativ e co sts. In a r r

i

v

in

g

at t

h i

s

f

i

g

u r e

,

C H 2

M

H

I

L L

a s s u

m

ed that in take _p

i

_{p i}n_g a n

d

a str u ctu r e c a_pa

bl

e of e x_pa n s

i

o n to 50

M

O

D w o ul

d b

e

the e x

i

stin_g

W

T P. T

h

e Jo r

d

an Lake s

i

te is

m

o r e tha n

1

5

m

i le s a

w

a

y

fr o

m

t

h

e

W

T P in

C

a r r

b

o r o. T

h

e tota

l d

yn a

m i

c

h

e a

d b

a s e

d

o n the pr opo s e

d 3 6

-in c

h

tr a n s

m

is s

i

o n Hn e wo ul

d

b

e to o la r

_g

e t o al low

d i

r e ct

_p

u

m

_p

i

n _g to t

h

e _p

l

a nt, s o two

-_st

a_ge _pu

m p i

n

_g

w i

l l b

e r e

_q

uir e

d

.

T a_{p p}

i

n_g

_J

o r

d

a n

L

ake is a v e r_y c a

_p

ita

l i

nte n s

i

v e alte r n ativ e.

O

f c o u r s e,

O

W

A SA

ha s the o

_p

tio n of e x

_p

and in_g

i

ts e x ist

i

n _g r e s o u r c e s via

S

_{t o}n e

Q

u a r r

_y

, but

m

any issu e s

r e

m

ain u n cle a r. O

W

A SA

is

i

n te r e ste

d

in

fi

n

d

ing o ut

w h

at

m

a rg

i

n al c o ntr

i b

utio n

(

s

)

to

l

o n

_g

-te r

m

wate r s u_p

_{p l}

_{y w} o u

l d b

e o

b

ta

i

n e

d

fr o

m

a

d d i

t

i

on al

S

Q

st or a

_g

e v o

l

u

m

e

(

s

)

. T he

o_pti

m

al qu a n

ti

t_y of ad

d

itio n al

S

Q

c a_pa c

i

t_{y w}

hi

ch sho ul

d b

e o

b

tain e

d

a n

d

t

h

e ti

m

in_g of its

a c

_q

u

i

s

i

t

i

o n a r e als o o

f

c o n c e r n . T

h

e ot

h

e r

m

a

j

o r

i

s s u e s

i

n c

l

u

d

e t

h

e a s s e s s

m

e nt o

f

w

h

e n

i

t

w

i ll b

e n e c e s s a r_y to ta_p

J

o r

d

a n L a

k

e a n

d

t

h

e e c o n o

m i

c

b

e n e

f i

ts a s s o c

i

ate

d

w it

h d

e

l

a_y

i

n

_g

the e x

_p

e n siv e

d

e v elo

_{p m}

e n t of t

h

e

J

o r

d

a n L ake so u r c e. T

hi

s r e

p

or t is ai

m

e

d

at

h

e

l p

in

g

O

W

A SA

a

d d

r e s s the s e

i

s s u e s.

T he _goal of th is s tu

d y i

s to a s s

i

st

O

W

A SA

in

_{p l}

a n n

i

n

_g

t

h

e ca_pa cit_y ex_pansion of its

wate r s u_p

_p

l y s_y ste

m

. T he o

b

j

e ctiv e s o

f

th is stu

d

y a r e a s fol lows :

(

1

₎

_ga

i

n a t

h

o r o u

_{g h}

u n

d

e r sta n

d i

n_g o

f

_t

h

e

_O

W

_{A S A}

r e s e r v o

i

r s_yste

m

,

(

2

₎

a s s e s s t

h

e

_p

ote n

_ti

al of fu r t

h

e r

d

e v elo

_p

in_{g t}

_h

e

_{y i}

el

d f

r o

m

t

h

e e x

i

st

i

n

_g

s o u r c es v

i

a

S

to n e

Q

u a r r_y e x

_p

a n_s

i

o n ,

(

3

₎

a n a

l

_yz e

d

e v e

l

o

_{p m}

e nt of t

h

e

J

o r

d

an L a

k

e s o u r c e

w i

t

h

a n

d

w

i

t

h

o ut

S

to n e

Q

u a r r_y

e x

_p

a n _s

i

o n , a n

d

,

(

4

₎

m

a

k

e r e c o

m m

e n

_d

a

ti

o n_sfo r the

S

to n e

Q

u ar r_y e x

_p

a n s

i

o n a n

d

Jo r

d

a n

L

a

k

e

d

e v e

l

o_p

m

e nt

b

a s e

d

o n the f in

d i

n

_g

s.

In o r

d

e r to ad

d

r e s s t

h

e

i

s s u e s a n

d

con cer ns fac

i

n_g

O

W

A SA

,

i

t

i

s n e c e s s a ry to

e s

ti m

ate t

h

e lo n_g

-te r

m

w ate r s u_p

_{p l}

_y c a_pa c

i

t_y o

f

t

h

e r e s e r v oir s_yste

m

u n

d

e r a v a riet_y o

f

c on

di

t

i

o n s.

M

a

i

n

l y

,

ti

i e se c o n

di ti

o ns c ons

i

s t o

f d i f f

e r en t c o

m

b i

na

ti

o n s o

f w

or

k i

n

a n

d

s u r

f

a c e w ate r

i

n

f l

ow s

f

o r t

h

e r e s e r v o

i

r s.

A

rev

i

ew o

f

t

h

e te c

h

n

i

c a

l l i

te r atu r e

i

n

d i

c ate

d

t

h

at the a

_{p p l i}

c atio n o

f

s a

f

e _{y i}el

d m

o

d

e

l

s wo u

l d b

e t

h

e

b

e st a

_{p p}

r o a c

h

to o

b

tain

i

n

_{g m}

e a s u r e s

o

f

r e

l i

a

_b

le wate r s u_{p p l y}.

A

s afe _y

i

el d c a n

b

e

d

efi n ed a s t

h

e

m

a x i

m

u

m

_qu a n

ti

t_y o

f

wate r t

h

at c a n

b

e r ele a s ed

f

r o

m

a r e s e r v oir o r s_y ste

m

o

f

r e s e r v o

i

r s c o n

ti

n u o u s_{l y} o v e r t

h

e

_p

e rio

d

o

f

_t

i m

e

i

n the

str e a

m

fl o

w

r e c o r

d

u s e

d i

n the a n a

l

_ysis.

M

a ny te c

h

n

i

qu e s ha v e

b

e e n ut

i

hz e

d

to

d

ete r

m

in e

s a

f

e _{y i}e

l d

s,

b

u t

i

t

w

a s c

l

e a r e a r

l y

o n t

h

a t

m

at

h

e

m

a

ti

c a

l

o

p

t

i m i

z a

ti

o n

m

o

d

e

l

s u s

i

n

g l i

n e a r

pr o_gr a

m m i

n_g w a s t

h

e

m

o st a

_p

_pr o_pr

i

ate

m

et

h

o

d

fo r th is wate r r e s o u r c e s

_p

la n n

i

n

_g

s

i

tu at

i

o n .

In se c t

i

o n

2

, t

h

e l

i

n e a r

p

rogr a

m m i

ng

f

o r

m

u

l

at

i

o n s o

f

t

h

e

m

athe

m

a

ti

c al o

p ti m

iz at

i

o n

m

o

d

e

l

s

d

e v e

l

o

_p

e

d

to

_d

et er

m i

n e t

h

e s a

f

e

_y

ie

l d f

r o

m d i f

fe r e nt c o n

fi g

u r at

i

o n s of t

h

e

O

WA SA

r e s e r v o

i

r s_y ste

m

a r e

_p

r e s e nte

d

.

T h i

s s e ct

i

o n a

l

so

i

nc

l

u

d

e s a

b

a c

k g

r o u n

d d i

s c u s s

i

o n o

f

s a

f

e

y

i

e

l d m

o

d

e

l

s. T

h

e s afe y iel

d m

o

d

els

d

ev e

l

o

p

e

d

we r e t

h

e n a

p p l

ie

d i

n t

h

e a n al

y

s

i

s of t

h

e

lo n

_g

-_{te r}

m w

_{ate r s u}

p p l y

f

r o

m

the

O

W

A SA

s_yste

m

fo r v a rio u s co n

d

i

ti

on s. In se ct

i

on

3

, a

di

s c u s sio n of t

h

e e sti

m

a

ti

o n o

f m

o nth

l

_y in

fl

ow

f

o r

C

a n e

C

r e ek a n

_{d U}

niv e r s

i

t_y L a

k

e

r e s e r v oir s is _{g i}v e n, w

hi

c

h

a r e the

m

a

j

o r

i

n

p

ut pa r a

m

ete rs r equir e

d

in t

h

e s a

f

e y iel

d m

o

d

els.

T h

en , t

h

e s a

f

e y iel

d

stud

i

e s t

h

at we r e

p

erfo r

m

e

d

a r e

d

e s c r

i b

e

d

a n

d

t

h

e r e s ults

f

r o

m

t

h

e s e

stu

d i

e s a r e

_p

r e s e nte

d

a n

d di

s c u s s e

d

.

W

i t

h

t

h

e r e s u

l

ts

f

r o

m

the sa

f

e y

i

e

l d m

o

d

e

l

s

, a

p

r e sen t

v alu e c o st c o

m

_pa ris o n c a n

b

e c o n du cte

d

to e v a

l

u ate t

h

e e x_pa n s

i

o n alte r n ativ e s, w h

i

c

h

is

2

S

A

F E Y I E L D

M

O

D E L

S

2

.

1

B A C K G R O U N D

F

o r a _g

i

v e n wo r

k i

n

_g

v o

l

u

m

e, r ese r v o

i

r o

p

e r a

ti

n

g p

o

l i

cy, a n

d

tr ace o

f i

n

f l

ow s,

e v e r_y r e s e r v oir ha s a n a s s o ciated s afe _{y i}el d. T he s afe y iel

d

of a r e s e r v oir is n o r

m

al l y

d

e

fi

n e

d

a s the

m

a x

i m

u

m

r e

l

e a s e

f

r o

m

the r e s e r v o

i

r that ca n

b

e

_g

u a r a nte e

d

o n a s u sta

i

n e

d

ba sis. Howe v e r, n o y iel

d

c a n

b

e gu a r a nte e

d

w ith a

b

s o

l

ute ce rtain ty

b

e c a u s e

i

nf

l

ows a r e

sto cha stic.

S

afe y iel

d

s ha v e tr a

di ti

o n al l y

b

e e n

b

a s e

d

o n

h

isto r

i

c al str e a

m

f low r e c o r

d

s a n

d

o n the a s s um

_{p ti}

on that the s e

_q

u e n c e will r e

_p

e at in the

f

utu re.

S

o

m

e

y

iel

ds

m

a

y b

e

l

e s s

t

h

an the

hi

s to r

i

c a

l

s a

f

e

_{y i}

e

ld b

ec a u s e

i

n

f l

ows

i

n t

h

e

f

utu r e

m

a_y

b

e

l

ess t

h

a n the

l

ow e st

f lows on r e c o r

d

.

A

ltho u

_g

h a s afe _{y i}el

d

c a n n ot

b

e _gu a r an te e

d

w it

h

c e rtaint

_y

, it c a n

b

e a s s o c

i

ate

d

w ith a

_p

r oba

b

i l it_y of e x c e eda nce o r a

m

e a s u r e o

f i

ts re

U

a

b i l i

t_y. Fo r a r e s e r v o

i

r w ith a

g i

v e n sto r a

_g

e c a

_p

a c

it

_y

a n

d

o_pe r a

ti

n

_{g p}

oHc_y, the

p

r o

b

a

bi

l

i

ty t

h

at an

y p

a r

ti

c u

l

a r r e

l

e a s e w

i U

b

e e x cee

d

e

d

can

b

e

d

e

fi

ne

d

w

i

th re s

_p

ec t t o t

h

e

_p

ro

b

a

b i h

t

_y

o

f

e x c e e

d

a nc e o

f

a ce rta

i

n

in

fl

ow

[

L o u c ks et a

h

, 1

9 8 1

;

R

e

V

e

U

e et a

l

.,

19 6 9

]

.

T h

e se

p

r o

b

a

b i l i ti

e s a r e n o r

m

a

l l

y

e s

ti m

ate

d

fro

m

u n r e_gu

l

ate

d

h isto r

i

c a

l

s tr e a

m fl

ows.

A

co

m m

on

m

et

h

o

d

u s e

d

t o e s

ti m

ate t

h

e

_p

r o

b

a

b i li

t_y that an _y

_{g i}

v e n

fl

ow wi

ll b

e

e x c e e

d

e

d i

n v olv e s the

_p

r e

d i

c

ti

on o

f

the

m

e a n n u

m b

er of r a n

d

o

m

e v e nts t

h

a t can o cc ur

i

n

the

f

utu r e.

T h

e pr o

b

a

b i l i

ty that s u c

h

a n u

m b

e r o

f

r a n

d

o

m

e v e nts o c c u r s

i

s c a

l

le

d

the

m

e a n

pr obab i ht_y T he

m

e a n _pr o

b

ab i l

i

t_y o

f

a n_{y p}a rt

i

c ula r

i

n

fl

ow

b

e

i

n_g e_qu ale

d

o r e x c e e

d

e

d

is

b

a s e

d

on the a s s u

m p ti

o n t

h

at an

_{y f}

utu r e

fl

ow

h

as a n e

_q

u a

l p

r o

b

a

b i li

t_y o

f f

a

ll i

n

_g

w

i ti

i

i

n an_y

inte r v a

l d

e

f m

ed

b

_y a h isto ric a

l

str e a

m fl

ow rec o r

d

. I

f

a h

i

sto r

i

c al str e a

m fl

ow r e c o r

d

c o n s

i

sts o

f

n

m

o nthl y u n r e_gulate

d

in

fl

ows,

ti

i e n

ti

i e re w o u

l d b

e n +

1

str e a

m

fl

ow

i

nte r va

l

s.

Ar r a n

_g

in _g the s e

m

o nt_{h l y f l}ows

i

n o r

d

e r a nd r a nk in

_g

the

m

s o that t

h

e

l

a r

_g

es t str e a

m f l

ow

ha s the lowe st r a nk ,

m

= 1, a n

d

the lowe st

in

f

low

h

a s t

h

e

hi

g

h

e st r a n

k

,

m

= n, t

h

e

m

e an

p

r o

b

a

b i h

t_y that a

f

utu r e

m

o n t

h l y i

n

f

low w

i U

e

_q

u a

l

o r e x c e e

d

a f

l

ow o

f

r a n

k m is

m /

(

n +

1

)

.

[

L o u c ks et a

l

., 1

9 8

1

]

To i l lu str ate how the

m

e a n _pr obab i ht_y of inf low s r elate s to the r eUab i ht_y of y iel

ds

,

co n s

i d

e r t

h

e c a s e t

h

at n o r e s e r v o

ir

e x

i

sts.

W

i

t

h

o ut r e s e r v o

ir

sto r a

g

e, t

h

e

m

a x

im

u

m

amo u nt o

f

wate r t

h

at c a n

b

e con siste nt

l

_y

d

iv e rte

d fr o

m

t

h

e str e a

m

(

i

.e., t

h

e s a

f

e y

i

el

d

)

w o ul d be e sti

m

ated a s the lowe st f low in the

h

isto ric al str e a

m

f low r e c o r

d

. T he

m

e a n

p

r o

b

a

b i h

t_y that t

h i

s s afe _y

ie

l d

w i U

b

e e

_q

u a

le

d

o r e x c e e

d

e

d

is t

h

e

m

e an

_p

r o

b

a

b

i ht_y of

e x c e e

d

a n c e of t

h

e lowe st f low , w h ic

h

is n

/

(

n + 1

)

, w he r e n is t

h

e n u

m b

e r of time pe r

i

o

ds

in

the

hi

sto r

i

c al r e c o r

d

. Fo r e x a

m

p

l

e,

i f

t

h

e

m

e a n pr o

ba

b i l i

ty t

h

at t

h

e

l

ow e st

f l

o

w

v n

H b

e

e

_q

u ale

d

o r e x c e e

d

e

d i

s

0

.

9 0

, the n

i

t c a n

b

e e sti

m

ate

d

t

h

a t,

in

t

h

e

f

u tu r e, a r e

le a

s e e

q

u a

l

to

o r

_g

r ea te r t

h

a n th is low fl ow ca n

b

e

m

a

d

e

9 0 p

e r c en t o

f

t

h

e t

i m

e,

w h i

c

h

r epr e s en ts t

h

e

r el iab i ht_y of the s afe _{y i}el

d

. T h is i l lu str ate s that a s afe

y i

e

l d

c an

be

d

e

f i

n e

d b

y t

h

e

m

e a n

p

r o

b

a

b

i l

i

t_y o

f

that _{y i}el

d b

ein_g e x c e ede

d

, w h ich in tu r n is a

f

u n c t

i

o n of t

h

e tota

l

n u

m b

e r o

f

p

e riods in clu

de

d in the infl ow rec o r

d

.

R

e s e r v o

i

r sto ra

_g

e

m

a

k

e s

i

t

_p

os s

i b l

e to

i

n c r eas e t

h

e s a

f

e _y

i

e

l d

.

I

n

p

e r

i

o

d

s o

f h i g h

i

n

fl

ow , a v olu

m

e of w ate r c a n

b

e sto r e

d f

o r r e

l

e a s e

i

n

p

e r

i

o

d

s o

f

low in

fl

ow.

R

e s e r v o

ir

s to r a

_g

e

_p

r o v

i d

e s a

m

e a n s o

f m

o r e e v e n

l y d i

st

ri b

ut

i

n

_g

re

l

e a s e s

w i

t

h

r e s

_p

e ct to

b

ot

h

t

im

e

an

d

vo

l

u

m

e.

A

s s u

m i

n

g

a n

in

i

t

i

a

l l y

e

m p

t

y

re se r v o

ir

, a

dd i

t

i

ona

l i

ncr eases

i

n s t or a

g

e c a

_p

a c

i

t_{y w} o ul

d p

e r

m i

t a

d d

itio n al

in c r e a s e s

in

s afe

_y

ie

l d

u

_p

to t

h

e

m

e a n

i

n

fl

ow.

M

o st o

f

t

h

e te c

h

n

i

c al

l i

te r atu r e t

h

at r e

f

e rs to s a

f

e

_{y i}

e

l ds o

f

r e s e r v o

ir s

a

d d

r e s s es t

h

e

pr ob lem of r e s e r v oir de si gn . T h is

p

r ob

le

m

c o n c e r n s the dete r

m i

n ati_{o n o}

f

t

h

_e

m in

im

u

m

s u

_p

_{p l y}, f lo od c o ntr ol, r e c r e atio n, a nd h y dr o ele ctric powe r pr odu ctio n

[

Re

V

el le et a

l

,

1

9 6 9

_]

.

F

o r the

d

e si gn of a sing le r e s e r v oir

d

ed ic ate

d

o nl y to wate r s up p l y, the pr ob le

m

b

e c o

m

e s o n e o

f d

ete r

m i

n

in

_g

t

h

e

m i

n

i m

u

m

sto r a

_g

e c a

_p

a c

i

t

i

es r e

_q

u

ir e

d

to s u

_{p p}

l y v a r

i

o u s

s afe _{y i}el

d

s s o that de

m

a n ds c a n be

m

et.

M

a ny

di f f

e r e nt ap

p

r o a che s ha v e

be e n

su g ge sted

fo r e sti

m

atin_g the sto r a_ge r e_quir e

m

e nts

f

o r v a r

i

o u s s a

f

e _{y i}el ds, w ith the

m

o st fa

m

i l ia r a n d

s u c c e s sful te chn_{i q}u e s

b

ein_g c o n v e ntio n al

m

a s s

di

a_gr a

m

s

[F

air et al., 1

9 6 6

; Lo u ck s et a

l

,

19 81

_]

, s e

q

u e nt pe ak

[

Fair et a

/

. ,

19 6 6

;

T h

o

m

a s a n

d

Bu r

d

e n , 19 6 3

]

, s

i m

u

l

at

i

o n

[

L o u c

k

s,

1

9 7 6

;

W

u r

b

s a n

d

Be r_g

m

a n, 19 9 0

]

, a n

d m

at

he

m

at

ic a

l p

r ogr a

m m

ing, e s

p

e c

i

a

l l

y lin e a r

p

r o

_g

r a

m m

in

_g

[

Do rf

m

a n , 19 6 2; Lo u cks et a

l

,

19 8 1

; Re

V

e

Ue

et a

l

, 1

9 6 9

;

Sh i h

a n

d

Re

V

e

l

le, 19 9 4;V

i

e s sm a n et a

l

, 1

9 7 5

]

.

In o n e r e s_pe c t, th is r epo rt is c o n c e r n e

d

w ith the r e v e r s e of the r e s e r v oir

d

e si

g

n

p

r o

b

le

m

. Est

i m

ate s o

f

the

m

a x

i m

u

m

s a

f

e y ie

l d

t

h

at can

b

e o

b

ta

i

n e

d f

r o

m

a r e s e r v o

i

r or a

s_yste

m

o

f

r e s e r v o

i

r s w ith

g

iv e n w o rk in_g v o

lu

m

e s, n atu r a

l i

n

f

lows, a n

d i

n

i

t

i

a

l

sto r a

g

e

c o n

di

t

io n s

a r e

d

e sir e

d

. T

h

e

m

ost a

p p

r o

p

r

i

ate

p

r o c e

d

u r e

f

o r t

h is

s

i

tu at

io n

is

l i

n e a r

p

r o_gr a

m m

in_g. L in e a r pr ogr a

m m

in

g i

s a

p

owe r

f

u

l

o

p

t

i m

iza t

io n

t echn

i q

u e.

C

o

m m

e rc

i

a

l

lin e a r

_p

ro_gr a

m m

in_{g p}acka_ge s w

hi

c

h

r u n

_q

u

i

c

k l

_y a n

d

c a n

h

a n

d le

l

a r_ge

_p

r o

b l

e

m

s a r e r e a

d

_{i l y}

a vai la

b le

. A ls o , the r e

i

s n o

in

h

e r e nt n o n

l i

n e a r

i

ty

in

t

hi

s a

p p l i

cat

i

on

b

e c a u s e t

h

e

p

r

i

n c

i p

a

l

c o n str aints a r e c o nt

i

n uit_y

₍

o r

m

a ss

b

ala n c e

₎

e

_q

u atio n s a nd r e s e r v oir c a_pa cit_y c o n str a

in

ts,

w h ich a r e

li

n e a r fu n ct

i

o n s. In a

dd

it

i

o n ,

l i

n e a r

p

r ogr a

m m in

g

ha s t

h

e a

d

v a nta

g

e t

h

at

i

t eas

i l

y

a

l l

ows t

h

e a n a

l

_ysis o

f m

u

l

t

i

_p

l

e r e s e r v oir s_yste

m

s.

F

o u r

d

i

f f

e r e nt

li

n e a r

_p

r o_gr a

m

s

₍

L P

₎

w e r e fo r

m

ulate

d

to

de

te r

m

in e t

h

e s afe _y

i

el

d

c o r r e s_po n

d

in_g to fo u r

d i f

fe r e nt c o nfi_gu r at

i

o n s o

f

t

h

e

O

W

A S A

r e s e r v oir s_yste

m

:

(

1

)

C

ane

C

reek r ese r v oir o n_{l y},

(

2

)

Univ e rsity Lake r e s e r v o

ir

o n

l y

,

(

3

)

t

h

e e x ist

i

ng

O

W

A SA

r e s e r v oir s_yste

m

, a n

d

,

(

4

)

a

m

o

d i f

i e

d

syste

m

t

h

at a

l l

ows

S

t on e

Q

u a r r

y

to a u

gm

e n t sto r a

g

e

c a

_p

a cit_y of both the C C a nd U L w ate r sheds. Sche

m

atic

d

ia

g

r a

m

s of the

d

i

f f

e r e nt

a r r a n_ge

m

e nts a r e show n in F i gu r e

2

. 1.

T h

e

fi

r st c o nf i

_g

u ra t

i

o n tr e ats

C

a n e

C

r e ek a s a n

i

s olated u n

i

t a n

d

the s e c o n

d

is the

s a

m

e e x c e_pt fo r Univ e r sit_{y L}ake. T he s e c o nf i gu r atio n s w e r e

in

clu

d

e

d

in the stu

d

y to

dete r

m

in e s afe

_y

iel ds fo r the c a s e w he r e the r e s e r v oir s we r e o_pe r ated in

d

e_pe n

d

e nt_{l y}. T he

L P fo r

m

u

l

atio n

f

o r t

h

e s e tw o c o n

f

i_gu r at

i

o n s a r e v e r_y si

m i l

a r

b

e c a u s e the_y c o nce r n only a

sin_{g l}e r e s e r v oir w ith a c e rtain c a

_p

a cit_y and a s e_qu e n c e o

f

inf low

d

ata. T he s afe y iel d

m

odels fo r the

i

nde_pe n

d

e nt

C

a n e

C

r e ek a n

d U

niv e r s

i

t_{y L} a

k

e r e s e r v o

i

r s_yste

m

s a r e

b

oth

de s c ri be

d i

n s e ctio n 2.

2

.

T

he th ir

d

c o n

fi

_gu r atio n c o n si

d

e r s the e x

i

stin_g

O

W

A S A

r e s e r v o

i

r s_yste

m

.

U

n

d

e r

the cu r r e nt a r r a n

_g

e

m

e nt, s

h

own

i

n

F i g

u r e

2

.

1

(

b

)

,

S

Q

c a n on

l y

r e ce

i

ve

p

u

m p

e

d f l

ow s

f

ro

m

C C, the r eb y o nl y a u

g m

e ntin

g C C

r e s e r v o

i

r c apa c

i

ty . In the

f

o u rt

h

c o n

fi g

u r at

i

o n , s

h

o

w

n

i

n

F

i

_gu r e 2.

1

(

c

)

, the e x

i

st

i

ng s

y

ste

m i

s

m

o

di f

i e

d

to al low r ele ase s fr o

m

U L to

b

e r etu r n e

d

to

St

o n e

Q

uar r_y

_f

o r sto r a_ge.

T

h is a r r a nge

m

e nt, w

hi

ch w o u

l d i

n v o

l

v e e x pe n s

i

v e

m

o

d i fi

c at

i

o n

of the e x

i

stin

_g

s_yste

m

, w o ul d al low

S

Q

to a ug

m

e nt the sto r age c a

p

a cit

y

of

b

ot

h

the

U

niv e r sit

_y

Lake a n

d C

a n e

C

r e e

k

w ate r s

h

e

d

s a n

d

w o u l

d li k

e

l y i

n c r e a s e t

h

e s a

f

e

_{y i}

e

l d

o

f

the

s_yste

m

.

U

niv e r sity La

k

e is

m

u ch s

m

al le r tha n the

C

a n e

C

r e e

k

r e s e r v o

i

r , a

l

tho u

g h

t

h

e r at

i

o

o

f

the

U

L wa_{t e}r s

h

e

d

a r e a to t

h

at o

f C

a n e

_C

r e e

k i

s

₀

.

89

.

T h

e

dif f

er e n c e

in

st or a

g

e

c a

_p

a cit

i

e s is

m

u c

h g

r e ate r tha n the

_d

i

f

fe r e n c e s o

f

in

fl

ow s

b

etw e e n the tw o

b

a s

in

s.

Intu

i

tiv el y, ad

d

itio n al sto r age c apa c

i

ty wo u

l d b

e

m

o st u s e

f

u

l i

n t

h

e

U L

w ate r s

h

e

d

.

T

h

e l in e a r _pr o

_g

r a

m f

o r the

f

o u rth c o nfi gu r atio n is si

m

i la r to the o n e

d

e v elo

_p

e

d f

o r

the e xistin_g

O

W

A S A

s_yste

m

e x c e_pt that a n a

dd i

t

io

na

l

varia

b

le

m

us t

be

in c

lu

de

d

to a

l l

ow

fo r

_p

u

m p

in

_g

betwe e n U L a n

d S

Q

.

T h

e s a

f

e

y i

e

l d m

o

d

e

l

s

f

or t

h

e ex

is t

i

n

g

an

d m

o

d i f i

e

d

O

W

A

S

A s_yste

m

s a r e

d

e s c r

i b

e

d

in s e ctio n s

2

.

3

a n

d

2.4, r e s

p

e ctiv el

y

.