Financial and Currency Crises
Averting Currency Crises: The Pros and Cons of Financial Openness
... a currency crisis by increasing their GDP growth in a more stable ...a currency crisis. We also controlled for the onset of banking crises, and our results indicate that for more tail-dependent ...
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Can Financial Openness Help Avoid Currency Crises?
... a currency crisis? Methodologically, we …rst employ an alternative statistical method known as extreme value theory (EVT) to identify the linkage between currency ...of currency market (Koedijk et ...
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Currency crises in Russia and other transition economies
... Asian currency crises were unique in a sense that there were virtually no preceding disequilibriums in the government sector: macroeconomic strategy broader financial crisis, which had very little to ...
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Early warning systems for currency crises with real time data
... forecasting currency crises in emerging economies in the late 1990s Berg et ...banking crises in the period 1996–1998 using first releases (first official publication of the data after the period has ...
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Political contagion in currency crises: A comment
... Second, the club is exclusively defined by the politicians. It is they who determine which countries weigh heavily in their resolve to maintain the peg and which do not. Yet many emerging countries do not get to choose ...
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The Causes of Asian Currency Crises
... Within countries and currency unions, this type of financial crisis is increasingly unlikely due to the four institutional factors already mentioned. First, in terms of liquidity, the central banks are ...
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Currency Crises During the Great Recession: Is This Time Different?
... These results pave the way to future research, which should identify the reasons why such indicators have failed recently. From Figure 1 we notice that for 27 countries, two of the methods we propose signal the ...
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Prediction of Currency Crises using a Fiscal Sustainability Indicator
... and currency problems, once maturity and currency mismatches in banking balance sheets enter a zone of ...a currency crisis using the first generation model mechanism, because government contingent ...
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Default, currency crises, and sovereign credit ratings
... pattern—although currency crises conditional on having defaulted are more common—but that currency crises are more frequent and in about half the cases (even in emerging market economies) do ...
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Financial crises in Asia and Latin America: Then and now
... America currency crises (Table 1) 10 of the 15 indicators are significantly more volatile for Latin America, including all the financial and capital account ...banking crises paint a similar ...
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Rating the Rating Agencies
... The evidence presented here has suggested that ratings, by and large, fail to anticipate financial crises and are, instead, adjusted ex-post. However, in light of the evidence on other market indicators, ...
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Leading Indicators of Currency and Banking Crises: Croatia and the World
... that financial liberalization precedes many banking crises has been spreading, as has the understanding that banking crises often precede balance-of-payments problems and help in forecasting ...
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Output Costs of Currency Crises: Shocks, Policies and Cycles
... global financial crisis, the effects of financial crises on output growth have attracted more attention from researchers ...a currency crisis, which is one type of financial crisis that ...
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On the epidemic of financial crises
... that currency crises tend to be mostly regional, only a model allowing for both local and global e¤ects can truly assess the relative importance of each of these dimensions in the transmission of ...
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On the epidemic of financial crises
... modelling financial contagion that is based on SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) transmission models from epidemic ...contagious financial crisis. The approach is illustrated on a number of ...
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Real output costs of financial crises: a loss distribution approach
... contractionary crises episodes are identified against HP trends, only 110 crises were accompanied by negative growth rates during the crisis ...recessionary crises as well as crisis followed by a ...
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Some Parallels Between Currency and Banking Crises: A Comment
... and currency crises, these models as well as a much broader family of first and second generation models of currency crises, are silent on several crucial ...of financial crises, ...
9
Supply shocks and currency crises: the policy dilemma reconsidered
... Williamson (1999). Figure 6 shows little sign of any shift of potential in India at the time of the SE Asian crisis, as a single exponential trend seems to fit the data. The Indian experience suggests that successful ...
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Real and Financial Shocks, Exchange Rate Regimes and the Probability of a Currency Crisis
... a currency crisis has been analyzed in the empirical ...of currency crises or currency crashes (Eichengreen et ...“currency crises” and “ currency crashes ” because these ...
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Supply shocks and currency crises: the policy dilemma reconsidered
... Williamson (1999). Figure 6 shows little sign of any shift of potential in India at the time of the SE Asian crisis, as a single exponential trend seems to fit the data. The Indian experience suggests that successful ...
31