Forecast skill
CFSv2 based sub seasonal precipitation and temperature forecast skill over the contiguous United States
... Sub-seasonal forecast skill can be further improved by un- derstanding the sources of the ...categorical forecast of pre- cipitation over most areas of the ...CFSv1 forecast skill of ...
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Seasonal drought predictability and forecast skill in the semi arid endorheic Heihe River basin in northwestern China
... The skill of the forecasting sys- tems was evaluated in terms of anomaly correlation (AC) and Brier score (BS) or Brier skill score ...and forecast skill, with higher values during winter and ...
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Contribution of potential evaporation forecasts to 10 day streamflow forecast skill for the Rhine River
... The forecast skill is assessed for all catchments and for each ...all forecast–observation pairs for different lev- els of exceedance, P (X ≥ x), for each ...
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Tuning G ensemble to improve forecast skill in numerical weather prediction models
... The predicted variable in the following experiments is the Latent Heat Flux (LHF W/m2) using the Single-Variable G- Ensemble approach. However, it must be pointed out that any other meteorological variable could have ...
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Current status of ENSO forecast skill: a report to the CLIVAR Working Group on Seasonal to Interannual Prediction
... of forecast skill has been the subject of active ...the skill of the forecasts initialized in the later part of the year (September through December) drops below ...regain skill during the ...
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Surface temperature forecast skill comparison for the west coast of Saudi Arabia
... temperature forecast skill of several meso/regional-scale weather and climate forecasting models, since these models are known to have biases in forecasting surface temperatures in the planetary boundary ...
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Forecast skill score assessment of a relocatable ocean prediction system, using a simplified objective analysis method
... the skill score was positive, except for the North Atlantic, the Mediterranean Sea, and ...ogy skill score of all systems was positive for all tested pa- rameters, while the persistence skill score ...
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Complex relationship between seasonal streamflow forecast skill and value in reservoir operations
... forecasts skill is weak, release decisions may underperform relative to control ...when forecast skill is strong, release decisions will improve on con- trol ...inflow’s forecast is; the ...
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Seasonal hydrologic prediction in the United States: understanding the role of initial hydrologic conditions and seasonal climate forecast skill
... their skill from knowledge of initial hydrologic conditions and climate forecast skill associated with seasonal climate ...climate forecast skill to seasonal hydrologic fore- cast ...
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On the forecast skill of a convection-permitting ensemble
... The INCA system, developed at ZAMG, operates on a hor- izontal resolution of 1 km × 1 km. INCA blends data from automatic weather stations, remote sensing data (radar, satel- lite), forecast fields of numerical ...
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Value of medium range weather forecasts in the improvement of seasonal hydrologic prediction skill
... climate forecast skill, seasonal hydrologic forecast skill comes in substantial part from IHCs (Wood et ...seasonal forecast pe- ...River Forecast System’s traditional ESP fore- ...
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Towards seasonal forecasting of malaria in India
... seasonal forecast model (see the Methods section for ...of skill where it actually exists in the forecast, only a limited qualitative comparison with observational malaria data was ...malaria ...
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CLIVAR Exchanges No 32 Seasonal Predictability
... Dynamical models are increasingly the prediction tool of choice by seasonal forecast centers. They encapsulate the full physics of the atmosphere and thus are less prone to the limitations of empirical models, ...
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Impact of the sea surface temperature forcing on hindcasts of Madden-Julian Oscillation events using the ECMWF model
... Abstract. This paper explores the sensitivity of hindcasts of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) to the use of differ- ent sea surface temperture (SST) products as lower bound- ary conditions in the European Centre for ...
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Using subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) extreme rainfall forecasts for extended-range flood prediction in Australia
... the skill of high streamflow fore- casts on extended-range forecast horizons, including S2S lead ...improving forecast skill and understanding of the S2S timescale and to promote its uptake by ...
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Benchmarking ensemble streamflow prediction skill in the UK
... evaluated forecast skill seamlessly from lead times of 1 day to 12 months initialized at the first of each month over a 50-year hindcast period from 1965 to ...benchmark forecast in the majority of ...
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Kober, Kirstin (2010): Probabilistic forecasting of convective precipitation by combining a nowcasting method with several interpretations of a high resolution ensemble. Dissertation, LMU München: Fakultät für Physik
... high forecast skill ...and forecast errors typically increase quite rapidly with forecast lead time (Pierce et ...predictive skill of the precipitation ...first forecast hours ...
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Variational assimilation of Lagrangian trajectories in the Mediterranean ocean Forecasting System
... the forecast skill of surface-drifter trajectories improved by 15 %, that of intermediate-depth float trajectories by 20 %, and moreover, that the forecasted sea-surface height fields improved locally by 5 ...
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Relative impact of model quality and ensemble deficiencies on the performance of ensemble based probabilistic forecasts evaluated through the Brier score
... forecast skill. (ii) The lack of reliabil- ity comes primarily from forecast bias, and to a lower extent from the ensemble being systematically under-dispersive (or ...(iii) Forecast ...
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CLIVAR Exchanges Seasonal prediction
... rainfall forecast fields of each of the four physical ...improved forecast skill over southern Africa (Landman and Goddard, ...of forecast combining algorithms ...lowest skill until only ...
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