volcanic eruptions

This paper focuses on Islamic countries and examines the extent to which volcanic eruptions and earthquakes are explained using religious terms of reference. Within Islamic states there is a rich historical record of religious responses to disasters that occurred in the Middle Ages. For instance, the sixteenth century polymath Imam Jalaluddin Al-Suyuti believed that many catastrophes in the Middle East were divine judgments for sins which included adultery and drinking alcohol (Chester et al., 2012), the 1576 Cairo earthquake was widely understood as representing punishment for the popularity of coffee houses and most medieval and early modern Islamic treatises saw earthquakes as 'chastisement for lenient attitudes towards adultery, wine and music' (Akasoy, 2007, p. 403-4). There are few studies of either more recent or contemporary reactions of Islamic faith communities to earthquakes and eruptions.

Abstract. Volcanic eruptions pose an ever-present threat to human populations around the globe, but many active vol- canoes remain poorly monitored. In regions where ground- based monitoring is present the effects of volcanic eruptions can be moderated through observational alerts to both local populations and service providers, such as air traffic control. However, in regions where volcano monitoring is limited satellite-based remote sensing provides a global data source that can be utilised to provide near-real-time identification of volcanic activity. This paper details a volcanic plume detec- tion method capable of identifying smaller eruptions than is currently feasible, which could potentially be incorporated into automated volcanic alert systems. This method utilises daily, global observations of sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) by the

And finally about paleobiocoenosis in Karakattaian time at the sampling site in the Terskoy-Alatau Range, Tien Shan. Studies of samples collected in this area began in 1983. The presence there of spherulitic lavas and tuffs is clearly indicative of volcanogenic origin of red jaspers. Thin sections prepared from the specimens of these rocks contain microorganisms described earlier and in this paper. Paleobiocoenosis includes red algae Epiphyton sp., Renalcis granosus Vologdin, 1932, Dolonophyton jaspideus Kolosov, 1983 (Figure 1), Koroleviphyton at- tenuescens (Kolosov), 1983 (Figure 4), fungiform microorganisms Paleorhiphidium amplum Kolosov, 2013 (Figure 2, Figure 3) and conidia of aquatic fungi known as Karakattanella radiate Kolosov, 1983 [3] [14]-[16]. The mentioned biocoenosis indicates that 535-513 my ago a biotope rich in microorganisms developed on Earth in a shallow-water environment as a result of volcanic eruptions.

Theodicy is defined as the process of seeking to reconcile the reality of human suffering with the notion of a loving God. It is commonly associated with several models first proposed by Leibniz in the 18th century, though theodicy as an intellectual and religious pursuit is much older, with antecedents stretching back to biblical times. It is argued that within Christian theology ‘divine retribution’ is not only the most prominent theodicy within scripture, but is also the one most frequently adopted historically as the preferred explanation for losses and suffering caused by disasters, including those produced by earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. Contrary to what some historians of the earth sciences have maintained, we argue that in many societies with a Christian ethos there is little evidence to suggest that religious explanations have ceased to be important. The case is made that a model of ‘divine retribution’ is not merely a feature of biblical narratives, Christian history and pre-industrial societies, but also continues to guide the ways in which some, albeit a minority, of Christians interpret disaster losses today. An argument is advanced that other Leibnizian theodicies, especially the ‘best of all possible worlds’ model, are also supported biblically and have been increasingly adopted by Christians to explain disaster losses particularly since the 18th century. In recent decades the nature of theodicy has changed fundamentally. In some cases this has involved the development of theodicies such as the ‘free-will defence’ which have long existed within the Leibnizian canon, but in other instances theologians have moved beyond this tradition to produce what may be termed ‘post-Leibnizian’ models, of which the ‘liberationist’ is the best supported biblically and theologically. Close relationships between ‘liberationist theodicy’ and liberation theology, which is prominent in many economically less developed countries especially in Latin America, are discussed. Finally, the implications of ‘liberationist’ theodicy for Christian social action (i.e. praxis) and hazard planning are noted.

Theodicy is defined as the process of seeking to reconcile the reality of human suffering with the notion of a loving God. It is commonly associated with several models first proposed by Leibniz in the Eighteenth Century, though theodicy as an intellectual and religious pursuit is much older, with antecedents stretching back to biblical times. It is argued that within Christian theology ‘divine retribution’ is not only the most prominent theodicy within scripture, but is also the one most frequently adopted historically as the preferred explanation for losses and suffering caused by disasters, including those produced by earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. Contrary to what some historians of the earth sciences have maintained, we argue that in many societies with a Christian ethos there is little evidence to suggest that religious explanations have ceased to be important. The case is made that a model of ‘divine retribution’ is not merely a feature of biblical narratives, Christian history and pre-industrial societies, but also continues to guide the ways in which some, albeit a minority, of Christians interpret disaster losses today. An argument is advanced that other Leibnitzian theodicies, especially ‘the best of all possible worlds’ model, are also supported biblically and have been increasingly adopted by Christians to explain

Theodicy is defined as the process of seeking to reconcile the reality of human suffering with the notion of a loving God. It is commonly associated with several models first proposed by Leibniz in the Eighteenth Century, though theodicy as an intellectual and religious pursuit is much older, with antecedents stretching back to biblical times. It is argued that within Christian theology ‗divine retribution‘ is not only the most prominent theodicy within scripture, but is also the one most frequently adopted historically as the preferred explanation for losses and suffering caused by disasters, including those produced by earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. Contrary to what some historians of the earth sciences have maintained, we argue that in many societies with a Christian ethos there is little evidence to suggest that religious explanations have ceased to be important. The case is made that a model of ‗divine retribution‘ is not merely a feature of biblical narratives, Christian history and pre-industrial societies, but also continues to guide the ways in which some, albeit a minority, of Christians interpret disaster losses today. An argument is advanced that other Leibnitzian theodicies, especially ‗the best of all possible worlds‘ model, are also supported biblically and have been increasingly adopted by Christians to explain disaster losses particularly since the Eighteenth Century. In recent decades the nature of theodicy has changed fundamentally. In some cases this has involved the development of

Volcanic eruptions can produce ash particles with a range of sizes and morphologies. Here we morphologically distinguish two textural types: Simple (generally smaller) ash particles, where the observable surface displays a single measureable bubble because there is at most one vesicle imprint preserved on each facet of the particle; and complex ash particles, which display multiple vesicle imprints on their surfaces for measurement and may contain complete, unfragmented vesicles in their interiors. Digital elevation models from stereo-scanning electron microscopic images of complex ash particles from the 14 October 1974 sub-Plinian eruption of Volcán Fuego, Guatemala and the 18 May 1980 Plinian eruption of Mount St. Helens, Washington, U.S.A. reveal size distributions of bubbles that burst during magma fragmentation. Results were compared between these two well-characterized eruptions of different explosivities and magma compositions and indicate that bubble size distributions (BSDs) are bimodal, suggesting a minimum of two nucleation events during both eruptions. The larger size mode has a much lower bubble number density (BND) than the smaller size mode, yet these few larger bubbles represent the bulk of the total bubble volume. We infer that the larger bubbles reflect an earlier nucleation event (at depth within the conduit) with subsequent diffusive and decompressive bubble growth and possible coalescence during magma ascent, while the smaller bubbles reflect a relatively later nucleation event occurring closer in time to the point of fragmentation. Bubbles in the Mount St. Helens complex ash particles are generally smaller, but have a total number density roughly one order of magnitude higher, compared to the Fuego samples. Results demonstrate that because ash from explosive eruptions preserves the size of bubbles that nucleated in the magma, grew, and then burst during fragmentation, the analysis of the ash-sized component of tephra can provide insights into the spatial distribution of bubbles in the magma prior to fragmentation, enabling better parameterization of numerical eruption models and improved understanding of ash transport phenomena that result in pyroclastic volcanic hazards. Additionally, the fact that the ash-sized component of tephra preserves BSDs and BNDs consistent with those preserved in larger pyroclasts indicates that these values can be obtained in cases where only distal ash samples from particular eruptions are obtainable.

Abstract. A multi-hazard, multi-vulnerability impact model has been developed for application to European volcanoes that could significantly damage human settlements. This im- pact model is based on volcanological analyses of the po- tential hazards and hazard intensities coupled with engineer- ing analyses of the vulnerability to these hazards of residen- tial buildings in four European locations threatened by ex- plosive volcanic eruptions. For a given case study site, in- puts to the model are population data, building characteris- tics, volcano scenarios as a series of hazard intensities, and scenarios such as the time of eruption or the percentage of the population which has been evacuated. Outputs are the rates of fatalities, seriously injured casualties, and destroyed buildings for a given scenario. These results are displayed in a GIS, thereby presenting risk maps which are easy to use for presenting to public officials, the media, and the public. Technical limitations of the model are discussed and future planned developments are considered. This work contributes to the EU-funded project EXPLORIS (Explosive Eruption Risk and Decision Support for EU Populations Threatened by Volcanoes, EVR1-2001-00047).

To facilitate the assessment of hazards and risk from volcanoes, we have created a comprehensive global database of Quaternary Large Magnitude Explosive Volcanic Eruptions (LaMEVE). This forms part of the larger Volcanic Global Risk Identification and Analysis Project (VOGRIPA), and also forms part of the Global Volcano Model (GVM) initiative (www.globalvolcanomodel.org). A flexible search tool allows users to select data on a global, regional or local scale; the selected data can be downloaded into a spreadsheet. The database is publically available online at www.bgs.ac. uk/vogripa and currently contains information on nearly 3,000 volcanoes and over 1,800 Quaternary eruption records. Not all volcanoes currently have eruptions associated with them but have been included to allow for easy expansion of the database as more data are found. Data fields include: magnitude, Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI), deposit volumes, eruption dates, and rock type. The scientific community is invited to contribute new data and also alert the database manager to potentially incorrect data. Whilst the database currently focuses only on large magnitude eruptions, it will be expanded to include data specifically relating to the principal volcanic hazards (e.g. pyroclastic flows, tephra fall, lahars, debris avalanches, ballistics), as well as vulnerability (e.g. population figures, building type) to facilitate risk assessments of future eruptions.

during which the proxy reconstructions are entirely inde- pendent of the later instrumental data, yields similar anomaly patterns, but with magnitudes of only 25 – 60% that seen in the full analysis. Anomalies are statistically significant for at least part of the large cool anomalies over the northern part of North America and the NE Africa- Middle East cooling, but not for the warming of northern Eurasia or the eastern United States. The reduced magni- tude of the response in the reconstruction is likely a result of the decreased resolution of variance at regional spatial scales prior to the introduction of instrumental data (see variability discussion below). Additionally, two eruptions with noticeably reduced continental warming response are included in that time period (1641 and 1835, see Figure 1). However, the qualitative agreement between the earlier and later centuries demonstrates that the overall response pattern is robust throughout the record. We note also that significant stratospheric ozone loss in response to volcanic eruptions has occurred since the late 1970s due to the presence of anthropogenic halogens. This may have am- plified the effects of the most recent eruptions [Robock, 2000; Stenchikov et al., 2002; Shindell et al., 2003], which show larger magnitude responses than any of the earlier eruptions in our analysis.

A number of researchers have pointed out possible re- lationships that existed between eruptive activity and seis- mic activity since early times, although nobody can be sure about the physical mechanisms connecting the volcanic ac- tivities with seismicity. MacGregor (1949), for instance, in- ferring from statistical studies, suggests that a temporal re- lation exists between the local seismic activity and volcanic eruptions in the Caribbean volcanic arc. Such local seismic activity is thought to be directly involved in volcanic erup- tions. Through his studies around the Japanese and New He- brides areas, Blot (1956, 1972) showed that the deep seis- mic activity migrates from a greater depth to a shallower one and finally results in volcanic eruptions (Blot process). On the basis of statistical and worldwide studies, Latter (1971) states that Blot process would probably be a secondary phe- nomenon and that the relationship would be primarily the correlated sequence of seismic and volcanic events resulting from periods of tectonic instability and perhaps increased tensional conditions which affect very wide areas of the earth’s surface for periods of several months to several years at a time. On the other hand, many scientists have pointed out that there exists some physical relation between volcanic activity and tectonic seismicity (Tokarev, 1971; Yokoyama, 1971; Kaminuma, 1973).

show that online models represent the atmosphere more re- alistically. Errors in air quality prediction introduced by the offline approach can be quite substantial, especially as the model resolution is increased (Grell and Baklanov, 2011). The online approach using the Weather Research and Fore- casting (WRF) with Chemistry (WRF-Chem, Grell et al., 2005) model accounts for a numerically consistent air qual- ity forecast; no interpolation in time or space is required. In this paper we describe how volcanic emissions may be in- cluded in WRF-Chem, and apply the model using emissions from volcanic eruptions. We use WRF-Chem for studies of past volcanic eruptions to better understand volcanic emis- sions and their transport within the atmosphere. Intercom- parison studies of coupled (online) versus decoupled (offline) models will follow based on this work. The modelled feed- back between volcanic emissions is suitable for climate im- pact studies as well as for detailed studies of the dispersion and the weather following an eruption event. In the follow- ing we describe the implementation of generalized volcanic source parameters within WRF-Chem, indicating an oppor- tunity to use the modelling system for near-real-time erup- tions at times during an event when the user might know a location and maybe the height of a volcanic plume, but oth- erwise there is little information available about the charac- teristics of a certain eruption. WRF-Chem is based on the WRF model (Skamarock et al., 2008). The architecture of WRF supports both research and operational weather fore- casting applications. WRF includes various options for dy- namic cores and physical parameterizations (Skamarock et al., 2008) so that it can be used to simulate atmospheric processes over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. WRF-Chem simulates trace gases and particulates interac- tively with the meteorological fields using several treatments for photochemistry and aerosols developed by the user com- munity. The work described in this paper is based on WRF versions 3.3.1 and 3.4 (WRFV3.4, released in April 2012). A brief description is given at the beginning of Sect. 3.

Abstract. Explosive volcanism is an important natural cli- mate forcing, impacting global surface temperatures and re- gional precipitation. Although previous studies have investi- gated aspects of the impact of tropical volcanism on various ocean–atmosphere systems and regional climate regimes, volcanic eruptions remain a poorly understood climate forc- ing and climatic responses are not well constrained. In this study, volcanic eruptions are explored in particular reference to Australian precipitation, and both the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Using nine realisations of the last millennium (LM) (850–1850 CE) with different time-evolving forcing combinations, from the NASA GISS ModelE2-R, the impact of the six largest trop- ical volcanic eruptions of this period are investigated. Over- all, we find that volcanic aerosol forcing increased the likeli- hood of El Niño and positive IOD conditions for up to four years following an eruption, and resulted in positive precip- itation anomalies over north-west (NW) and south-east (SE) Australia. Larger atmospheric sulfate loading during larger volcanic eruptions coincided with more persistent positive IOD and El Niño conditions, enhanced positive precipitation anomalies over NW Australia, and dampened precipitation anomalies over SE Australia.

Abstract. A large 10 cm per day diastrophism of the crust was experienced between Kozu and Niijima Islands during the Izu-Miyake volcanic eruptions in Japan on 3–4 August 2000. The diastrophism was detected through GPS obser- vation. The seismometer also complied a swarm of earth- quakes at this time. Our electromagnetic wave data, observed at 223 Hz at the Omaezaki site, about 110 km and 150 km northwest of the Kozu and Miyake Islands, respectively, de- tected a clear, anomalous magnetic flux radiation that corre- sponded well with the seismographic and GPS data. Similar radiation was received for about one week preceding the big volcanic eruption that occurred on 18 August 2000. These observations indicate that the electromagnetic wave monitor- ing system has the potential to monitor and/or warn of vol- canic activity, and the facts disclose one of the mysterious ra- diation mechanisms of electromagnetic waves emitted from the Earth.

Consistent with the initial interpretation of the original Byrd measurements (17) but in contrast to subsequent interpretations (21) (Materials and Methods), the very pronounced enrichments of low-boiling-point heavy metals (20) and halogens (22), as well as elevated concentrations of medium and larger insoluble particle fractions in the WD core (Fig. 2) (SI Appendix, Fig. S1) clearly indicate a volcanic source for the glaciochemical anomaly (23). Although sulfur during the anomaly was relatively low (Fig. 4), the S/Cl mass ratio was ~0.1 which is nearly identical to the 0.095 ratio reported for modern emissions from nearby Mt. Erebus (23). Moreover, tephra particles from the anomaly (Materials and Methods) analyzed by electron microprobe showed mineralogy of a trachytic volcanic eruption (SI Appendix, Table S1) geochemically consistent with tephra from nearby Mt. Takahe (24, 25) (76.28 o S, 112.08 o W) – a recently active, flat-topped stratovolcano in West Antarctica located 360 km north of the WD coring site (Fig. 3). Therefore, we refer to the ~192-year series of volcanic eruptions as the “17.7ka Mt. Takahe Event.” Estimates of emissions from Mt. Takahe from enhancements in chlorine fluxes measured in the WD, Byrd, and Taylor Glacier cores, as well as radar-based evidence on the extent of the fallout plume (Fig. 3), suggest that average and peak chlorine emissions were ~100 and ~400 Gg y -1 , respectively (SI Appendix – Mt. Takahe Emissions

Major stratospheric volcanic eruptions can modify the Earth’s radiative balance and substantially cool the tro- posphere. This is due to the massive injection of sulfate aerosols, which reduce surface temperatures on timescales ranging from months to years (Robock, 2000). Volcanic aerosols significantly absorb terrestrial radiation and scatter incoming solar radiation, resulting in a cooling that has been estimated to about 0.5 ◦ C during the 2 years following the Mount Pinatubo eruption in June 1991 (Hansen et al., 1996). Since trees – as living organisms – are impacted in their metabolism by environmental changes, their responses to these changes are recorded in the biomass, as is found in tree-ring parameters (Schweingruber, 1996). The decoding of tree-ring archives is used to reconstruct past climates. A summer cooling of the Northern Hemisphere ranging from 0.6 to 1.3 ◦ C has been reported after the strongest known vol- canic eruptions of the past 1500 years (1257 CE Samalas, 1815 Tambora, and 1991 Pinatubo) based on temperature reconstructions using tree-ring width (TRW) and maximum latewood density (MXD) records (Briffa et al., 1998; Schnei- der et al., 2015; Stoffel et al., 2015; Wilson et al., 2016; Esper et al., 2017, 2018; Guillet et al., 2017; Barinov et al., 2018).

volcanic eruptions using an ensemble of last millennium simulations from the climate model HadCM3. We then test whether these features can be detected in observational land precipitation data following five twentieth century eruptions. The millennium simulations show a significant reduction in global mean precipitation following eruptions, in agreement with previous studies. Further, we fi nd that the response over ocean remains signi fi cant for around 5 years and matches the timescale of the near-surface air temperature response. In contrast, the land precipitation response remains significant for 3 years and reacts faster than land temperature, correlating with aerosol optical depth and a reduction in land-ocean temperature contrast. In the tropics, areas experiencing posteruption drying coincide well with climatologically wet regions, while dry regions get wetter on average, but there changes are spatially heterogeneous. This pattern is of opposite sign to, but physically consistent with, projections under global warming. A significant reduction in global mean and wet tropical land regions precipitation is also found in response to twentieth century eruptions in both the observations and model masked to replicate observational coverage, although this is not significant for the observed wet regions response in boreal summer. In boreal winter, the magnitude of this global response is significantly underestimated by the model; the discrepancy originating from the wet tropical regions although removing the influence of ENSO improves agreement. The modeled precipitation response is detectable in the observations in boreal winter but marginal in summer.

By investigating the temporal behavior of the eruption of terrestrial volcanoes, we aimed at constraining stochastic properties of volcanic eruptions. These eruptions are, in most cases, characterized by non-trivial temporal correlations. The scaling analysis of the distribution of interevent times be- tween successive eruptions performed on individual volca- noes and volcanic groups located around the world and sur- rounded by various tectonic settings lead to the collapse of these distributions into a single functional form that we mod- eled using the log-normal distribution. The obtained scaling implies that the distributions are controlled by the mean in- terevent time, which plays the role of a characteristic time scale. The log-normal temporal behavior of volcanic erup- tions allows us to conclude that the temporal structure of vol- canic sequences deviates from the simple Poisson statistics. By investigating the scaling properties of volcanic eruptions, we aimed at finding similarities in the temporal behavior of eruptions on Earth. We used a large number of volcanoes lo- cated around the world and surrounded by different tectonic settings. The data collapse observed lead us to conclude that the temporal behavior of those volcanoes displays significant similarities.

In Chapter 4, I focused on temporal aspects of volcanism on Earth by performing comprehensive statistical analysis of time intervals between consecutive eruptions. Assuming that volcanism operates through non-linear threshold dynamics, I took a global approach to study the temporal behaviour of volcanic eruptions. I collected eruption histories for 26 of the most active volcanoes throughout the world as well as for 163 less active volcanoes that I grouped into regional datasets. I performed a scaling analysis on the distributions of interevent times of all the datasets considered, using the mean interevent time as a scaling factor. I observed a collapse of all the dis- tributions into a single one, characterized by a log-normal distribution. I performed this analysis with several magnitude cutoffs to ensure the validity of results for the broadest range of eruption sizes. The results from this analysis lead me to conclude that volcanic eruptions on Earth can be the result of a multiplicative process and that eruption times are correlated with elements of clustering. The obtained univer- sality of the distribution of interevent times is a manifestation of self-similar nature of volcanic processes in time. It also indicates that the temporal structure of volcanic sequences deviates from simple Poisson statistics. These results imply that the pro- cesses involving magma transfer from the mantle to the crust, that are responsible for the triggering of volcanic eruptions, operate on a global scale. These results stress the importance of using statistical approaches when studying eruptions instead of classic deterministic methods. They also have implications in the design of future volcano hazard assessment programs.

Similarly, at present RiskScape does not allow directly consideration of time-varying or cascading impacts. This is perhaps less of an issue for some of the other hazards in RiskScape, but can be problem- atic for the multi-hazard events that are volcanic eruptions. However, most volcanic impact and risk studies around the world are currently focused on volcanic ash – one hazard of many – due to its widespread extent. This limitation only becomes a true limitation when assets are close enough to the vent to be exposed to more than one volcanic hazard. Likewise, if impacts are aggravated due to repeated or recurrent events – for example, a property damaged and repaired several times during an eruption se- quence, rather than being damaged, and then repaired after the eruption sequence is complete – the current approach does not adequately capture the damage and associated loss.