Population considerations and access to registration and voting centers

The 2012 census revealed that Zimbabwe’s population had increased from 11,631,657 in 2002 to 13,061,239. The population distribution was equally distributed between males and females. Of interest and concern with regard to Zimbabwean politics are the different ways in which ZANU-PF has used their monopoly of state resources to influence the voting behavior of urban and rural voters. Is what appears to be government bias toward rural voters over urbanites, an indication of ZANU-PF bias or simply representative of the structure of the Zimbabwean population? In 2002, the total population was just under 12 million at 11,631,657. Of that

population, 65 percent were rural residents while only 35 percent were urbanites. In 2012, the population was an estimated 13 million, an almost 1.5 million increase since the previous census. These census findings challenge estimates that suggest that at least two to four million

Zimbabweans have emigrated since 2000. However, the numbers are actually consistent with UN growth expectations in developing nations because the census count also includes those in the diaspora. When census officials asked respondents to count members of their families for the census, the count included those in the diaspora regardless of how long they had been away from home.

Figure 2 Zimbabwe Population Census 2002 and 2012

The distribution in Figure 2 provides evidence for what we have always known: that the majority of the Zimbabwean population is resident in rural areas. It also shows that the majority of rural voters, over 60 percent, are located in ZANU-PF bases in the Mashonaland Provinces. However, the most populous province is Harare, with 16 percent of the population. Therefore, if

0 2000000 4000000 6000000 8000000 10000000 12000000 14000000

Total Poluation Male Female Urban Rural

Zimbabwe Census 2002 and 2012

the allocation of election centers in a province is based on population, then Harare the single most populous province in the country and, as such, should have the most centers. However, the reality on the ground does not reflect this. In fact, the reality is that the allocation of election centers is biased in favor of rural areas.

In 2008, ZEC established about 2,665 mobile registration centers across the country. Harare currently has 16 percent of the population and had 16, 15, 13.75, and 19.12 percent of registered voters for 2000, 2005, 2008, and 2013, respectively. Yet, Harare is only allocated 44 registration centers, a mere 1.65 percent of the total registration centers for each election since 2000.

In 2008 and 2013, ZEC established 641 registration centers nationwide. Of the 641 centers, Harare only gained 25 registration centers, or 3.9 percent. The next most populous province is Manicaland. The population in Manicaland was 1,568,930 (13.4 percent) in 2002 and 1,752,698 (13.4 percent) in 2012. The voter registration population Manicaland as a fraction of national voter registration was at 12 percent in 2000 and 2005, 12.54 percent in 2008, and then declined to 10.50 percent in 2013. The allocation of election centers in Manicaland is higher than that of Harare and very unrepresentative of provincial population. Although Manicaland’s total population is at least four percentage points less than that of Harare, the province is allocated 300 (11 percent) of the 2,665 available registration centers. Manicaland was also allocated 49 voting centers, which is about 7.64 percent of the 641 voting centers.

The Mashonaland provinces Central, East, and West and Masvingo each have a population of between 8 to 11 percent of the national population. Mashonaland Central has a population of 995,427 or 8.8 percent of the national population, and voter registration has never been more than 9 percent of total registered voters between 2000 and 2013, yet the province is

allocated 391 (15 percent) of the registration centers and 76 (11 percent) of the national voting centers.

Mashonaland East has a population of 1,127,413, or 10.3 percent of the national

population, and voter registration ranged between 10 and 11.9 percent of total registered voters between 2000 and 2013, yet the province is allocated 284 (11 percent) of the registration centers and 76 (11 percent) of the national voting centers.

Mashonaland West has a population of 1,127,413 or 10.53 percent of the national

population, and voter registration has ranged between 10 and 11 percent of total registered voters between 2000 and 2013, yet the province is allocated 349 (15 percent) of the registration centers and 77 (12 percent) of the national voting centers.

Masvingo has a population of 1,320,438, or 13.49 percent of the national population, and voter registration has ranged between 11 and 12 percent between 2000 and 2013, yet the

province is allocated 257 (9.64 percent) of the registration centers and 41 (6.39 percent) of the national voting centers.

Midlands has a population of 1,463,993, or 12.59 percent of the national population, and voter registration hovered just over 13 percent between 2000 and 2008, but fell to 11 percent in 2013, yet the province is allocated 360 (13.50 percent) of the registration centers and 74 (11 percent) of the national voting centers.

The Matabeleland provinces have the lowest population in the country. The population in Mat South was 653,054 (6 percent) in 2002 and 683,893 (5 percent) in 2012; the population in Mat North was 704,948 (5.61 percent) in 2000 and 749,017(5.7 percent) in 2012. Voter

registration is also significantly lower in the South than anywhere else in the country. In the last decade, voter registration in Mat South and Mat North hovered around 6 percent from 2000 to

2005 but fell to close to 4 and 5 percent, in the registration period leading up to the 2013 election. However, as is the case with the other rural provinces, Mat South and North are allocated more registration centers relative to their population. Matabeleland South is allocated an overwhelming 193 registration centers and Matabeleland North, the least populated province in the country, is allocated 451 registration centers. Additionally, Mat South and North each have 85 and 89 voting centers – more than double the centers allocated for Harare (44) and Bulawayo (36).

While it is difficult to establish with factual evidence that ZANU-PF has managed to keep itself in power by tempering with ballots, the evidence presented here shows that MDC urban bases have suffered from restricted access to electoral centers. ZEC has in the past argued that rural areas are allocated more electoral centers because voters in those areas are not as mobile as those in urban areas, but that explanation does not justify the under-allocation of election centers in the more populous urban areas. The uneven distribution of centers has serious implications for the democratic process. A major complaint leveled against ZANU-PF in almost every election is that the party is deliberately making the voting process much more difficult for urbanites. This is better illustrated with an example: As part of my research for this project I participated in the election as a voter in Harare West. Harare West is the forty-first voting district, covering at least five neighborhoods with a total population of 55,881 according to the 2012 census. In Harare West, like all other Harare districts, there was only one voter registration center and 14 polling stations. ZEC officials have defended their allocation of election sectors, saying that their decision is not based on population, but instead on ease of access for the residents. Their argument is that rural areas should have more centers because rural voters are not as mobile as urbanites. Indeed, the challenge for urbanites is not related to accessibility of the

centers because a significant population owns personal vehicles and public transportation is abundantly available for only $0.50 a trip. The challenge for most urbanites is linked to the hours of service at the registration centers. The official hours of operation at the registration centers were 9:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. Monday through Friday. During the last week of registration, the hours were extended to 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. and the weekend.

In addition to time constraints, urbanites also have difficulties with the voter registration requirements. The registration process requires that a new registrant, or one updating their registration information, present photo identification such as a passport or national identification card and proof of residence. The requirements appear simple enough, but the proof of residency requirement is a hindrance for young voters who do not own their homes or who rent. Voters who do live in a home they do not own are asked to present an affidavit letter from the owner of the house. This is very difficult for those renting from absent landlords, and in some cases landlords use the letter of affidavit to settle scores with their renters. ZEC was forced to waive the proof of residency requirement after numerous reports had been released of voters who were turned away from the centers, including the 18 year-old twin children of Former Prime Minister and MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai.

Rural voters simply do not face the challenges that urban voters do when it comes to voter registration and voting. In rural areas. most residents are farmers and do not have the time constraints often faced by urbanites. As mentioned earlier, in rural areas the large numbers of registrants were new voters. At the rural centers I visited for this project. the average line of voters had less than 50 voters at any time during the day. This was in grave contrast to the challenges faced in urban areas. On the day I managed to successfully register to vote, I arrived at the polling station at 6:00 a.m. The polling station did not open until 9:30 a.m., but by the time

the registration was officially open for business a significant number of registrants had left the polling station to return to work. The environment in and of itself, based on this research and reports in the media, was relatively peaceful and clean once the registrants were able to enter the registration center. The accusations that ZANU-PF deliberately tampered with the ballot boxes and/or ballots are difficult to substantiate. In the days soon after the election, rumors circulated that ZANU-PF had partnered with the Israeli technology company NIKUV and designed the ballots in such a way that a vote cast for MDC would change to a vote for ZANU-PF because of an invisible pen. In my view, these claims are at best are fictional and highly imaginative. It is hard to imagine that given the administrative challenges faced by ZEC, ZANU-PF would have been able to successfully engineer invisible pen ballots. A more realistic implication is that voter access to the electoral system is biased in favor of ZANU-PF. I would argue that the

cumbersomeness of the voting process forces voters, especially those in urban areas, to exit the political system.