The profile of exiles is important because demographic factors influence political choice, and this in turn influences the structure of the political scene. This migrant profile is also
important because this is the profile of the middle class and that of a risk-taking participant who is willing and able to organize opposition politics.
The key demographic features of the respondents, gender, age and, tribes, are discussed below. The majority of Zimbabwean emigrants are young and generally under the age of 30. Among those who were interviewed, 80 percent of the respondents were between the ages of 21 and 40; over 70 percent were urbanites, having emigrated from Harare (57 percent) or Bulawayo (20 percent), the two major cities; 50 percent of the respondents were male; and 60 percent were highly educated, with at least 20 percent holding a degree beyond the first bachelor’s degree.
Figure 6 Age of Diaspora Respondents
3.3.1.1 Gender
The gender breakdown of the respondents interviewed was 50 percent female and 50 percent male. This is close to the gender breakdown in other key studies, such as those done by Makina et al (2007) where their gender breakdown was 41 percent female and 59 percent male, and those by Pasura where the breakdown was 43 percent female and 57 percent male.
3.3.1.2 Age
The migrant population is young, with 68 percent of the respondents between the ages of 21 and 40. This is consistent with the two comparable studies of Pasura and Makina. The fact that most respondents left after the age 21 means that most left after the completion of secondary education. It also means that most of the respondents were in the working age group. The
majority of those who left the country were young, and the young tend to be the ones who push for social movements. The impact of their exit was felt in the declining public opposition to ZANU-PF. As Zimbabweans emigrated, the number of people willing to attend rallies dwindled. Exit of young people also had a negative impact on the economy.
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% RespondentsFigure 7 Diaspora Identity Groups
3.3.1.3 Tribe
The majority of respondents are Shona (70 percent); this is consistent with the actual tribe breakdown in Zimbabwe where an estimated 85 percent are Shona, 13 percent are Ndebele, and the rest are a combination of other minority groups: white, Asian, and others. The other groups, Ndebele (21 percent) and whites (9 percent), are oversampled, but given the size of the sample it provides a good balance of the diversity of views. In most African countries, ethnicity plays an important role in the way that people vote in elections. In Zimbabwe, the political and economic crisis had a marked impact across all groups of citizens. Zimbabweans from every tribal group were seeking opportunities to leave the country at the same rate. Their exit was forced in different ways; most whites left in response to the land reform while blacks left in response to the general decline in economic and political conditions.
3.3.1.4 Hometown of Respondents
Consistent with findings from other studies (Makina, 2008; D. Pasura, 2009), the
majority of those who left were urbanites. They emigrated from the two largest cities, Harare and Bulawayo. My theory hinges on the impact of voter exit on the strength of the opposition. The
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MDC was an urban party; they relied on urban support to win elections. The mass exodus of urbanites was likely to weaken the opposition in their urban bases, and it did.
Figure 8 Diaspora Hometown
3.3.1.5 Education
The migrant population, in addition to being young, is also highly educated; the majorities of emigrants left after completing their high school education and have since then furthered their studies. Figure 11 shows the age profiles of respondents for the large-scale project by Daniel Makina (2007) and for this study in 2013. The young are certainly leaving the country much more than the older migrants.
The education profile presents a comparison between the emigrant profile of respondents in the larger Makina study conducted with over 5,000 Zimbabweans in South Africa and the profile for this study conducted with just over 100 respondents in the United States, United Kingdom, South Africa, and returning diasporans in Zimbabwe. The average Zimbabwean emigrant in the large-N and small-n studies are highly educated. Respondents in the small-n
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study have more education than the larger study, but that is probably a result of being a much smaller study with a sample size of 100.
Figure 9 Diaspora Education
During their time in the diaspora, most Zimbabweans have continued to further their studies, improving on the skills they already had prior to emigrating. When they first emigrated, the majority of respondents either had a high school education (40 percent) professional training such as a teacher-training certificate (20 percent), but in 2013 the majority of respondents reported having a university degree (56 percent). Once people have completed their education, the next logical step is that they should find gainful employment to be able to support themselves and their families. As the economic situation in Zimbabwe declined, the young who were just finishing high school and university degrees were the most badly affected. High school graduates wanting to further their studies found very limited opportunities to do so.
The youth are the backbone of the country, and their development tends to be a crucial indicator of how well an economy is doing. Younger workers (ages 18 to 30) the world over
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generally tend to face higher levels of unemployment than other age groups. According to the 2012 annual labor and unemployment report by the United Nations’ International Labor Organization (ILO), close to 75 million, or 12.6 percent, of 15 to 24 year olds are out of work. The Middle East has the highest unemployment of youth at 26 percent (3.4 million), but in real numbers unemployment is highest in Sub-Saharan Africa where over 11 percent of the region’s youth are unemployed, translating to over 10 million unemployed youth.