I
NDIVIDUAL
E
FFECTS AND
D
YNAMICS IN
C
OUNT
D
ATA
M
ODELS
Richard Blundell
Rachel Griffith
Frank Windmeijer
THE INSTITUTE FOR FISCAL STUDIES
W?__@* ,giU|t @?_ #)?@4Ut ? L?| #@|@
L_i*t
+U@h_ *?_i**
|+@Ui* Bh|
}6h@?! `?_4iih
{a?i bc 2fff
Devwudfw
Lq wklv sdshu zh h{dplqh wkh sdqho gdwd hvwlpdwlrq ri g|qdplf prghov iru frxqw gdwd wkdw lqfoxgh fruuhodwhg {hg hhfwv dqg suhghwhuplqhg yduldeohv1 Xvh ri d olqhdu ihhgedfn prgho lv sursrvhg1 Wkh vwdqgdug Srlvvrq frqglwlrqdo pd{0 lpxp olnholkrrg hvwlpdwru iru qrq0g|qdplf prghov/ zklfk lv vkrzq wr eh wkh vdph dv wkh Srlvvrq pd{lpxp olnholkrrg hvwlpdwru lq d prgho zlwk lqglylgxdo vshflf frqvwdqwv/ lv lqfrqvlvwhqw zkhq uhjuhvvruv duh suhghwhuplqhg1 D txdvl0 glhuhqfhg JPP hvwlpdwru lv frqvlvwhqw iru wkh sdudphwhuv lq wkh g|qdplf prgho/ exw zkhq vhulhv duh kljko| shuvlvwhqw/ wkhuh lv d sureohp ri zhdn lqvwux0 phqw eldv1 Dq hvwlpdwru lv sursrvhg wkdw xwlolvhv suh0vdpsoh lqirupdwlrq ri wkh ghshqghqw frxqw yduldeoh/ zklfk lv vkrzq lq Prqwh Fduor vlpxodwlrqv wr srvvhvv ghvludeoh vpdoo vdpsoh surshuwlhv1 Wkh prghov dqg hvwlpdwruv duh dssolhg wr gdwd rq XV sdwhqwv dqg U)G h{shqglwxuh1
Nh| Zrugv= g|qdplf frxqw sdqho gdwd/ lqglylgxdo hhfwv/ suhghwhuplqhg uhjuhv0 vruv/ Jhqhudolvhg Phwkrg ri Prphqwv/ suh0vdpsoh lqirupdwlrq
MHO Fodvvlfdwlrq= F56/ F58/ R63
Zh duh judwhixo wr Pdqxho Duhoodqr/ Dqguhz Fkhvkhu/ ]yl Julolfkhv/ Eurqz|q Kdoo/ Er Krqruh/
Qhlo Vkhskdug dqg vhplqdu sduwlflsdqwv dw Wrn|r/ Eulvwro/ Qxhog Froohjh dqg Qrwwlqjkdp iru khosixo frpphqwv1 Wklv vwxg| lv sduw ri wkh surjudp ri uhvhdufk ri wkh HVUF Dqdo|vlv ri Odujh dqg Frpsoh{ Gdwd Vhwv dw XFO dqg wkh HVUF Fhqwuh iru wkh Plfurhfrqrplf Dqdo|vlv ri Ilvfdo Srolf| dw LIV1 Wkh qdqfldo vxssruw ri wkh HVUF lv judwhixoo| dfnqrzohgjhg1 Zh duh judwhixo wr Eurqz|q Kdoo iru surylglqj wkh gdwd rq sdwhqwv dqg U)G xvhg lq wklv vwxg|1 Wkh xvxdo glvfodlphu dssolhv1
|Xqlyhuvlw| Froohjh Orqgrq dqg Lqvwlwxwh iru Ilvfdo Vwxglhv }Lqvwlwxwh iru Ilvfdo Vwxglhv
W?|hL_U|L?
L?| _@|@ ThLUittit @hi UL44L?T*@Ui ? i4ThU@* 4UhLiUL?L4Ut W? T@?i* _@|@ @TT*U@|L?t Lu UL?| 4L_i*t | ** Lu|i? Mi |i U@ti |@| |i ThLUitt ?_ih t|_) t ?ihi?|*) _)?@4U tL |@| |i t|Lh) Lu |i UL?| ThLUitt |ti*u MiUL4it @? 4TLh|@?| _i|ih4?@?| Lu Uhhi?| L|UL4it t ? L|ih T@?i* _@|@ @TT*U@|L?t | t @*tL *!i*) |@| ?LMtihi_ i|ihL}i?i|) ** Mi Thiti?|c ?_U?} Tihtt|i?|*) _gihi?| UL?|t @UhLtt ?__@*t Lh h4t At T@Tih 4@!it |L UL?|hM|L?t |L |i _ii*LT4i?| Lu @ 4L_i*?} uh@4iLh! |@| @**Lt uLh _)?@4U uii_M@U! @?_ ? LMtihi_ i|ihL}i?i|) 6ht|c |i ti Lu Thit@4T*i ?uLh4@|L? t ?it|}@|i_ @t @ 4i|L_ Lu 4ThL?} |i iUi?U) Lu it|4@|Lht ? T@?i* UL?| 4L_i*t | Thi_i|ih 4?i_ UL@h@|it 5iUL?_c @ *?i@h uii_M@U! 4L_i* uLh _)?@4U T@?i* _@|@ @TT*U@|L?t t ThLTLti_ At 4L_i*?} @TThL@U t |i? @TT*i_ |L |i @?@*)tt Lu |i hi*@|L?tT Mi|ii? +:# @?_ T@|i?|t uLh @ T@?i* Lu N5 h4t
W? UL?| _@|@ 4L_i*tc ihi @ ?@|h@* ?L?*?i@h|) t ThL_Ui_ M) |i ?L? ?i}@|i _tUhi|i ?@|hi Lu |i _@|@c t|@?_@h_ Bi?ih@*ti_ i|L_ Lu L4i?|t EB 4i|L_t uLh |i it|4@|L? Lu _)?@4U i_ igiU|t 4L_i*t @hi ?L| _hiU|*) @TT*U@
M*i Ai t|@?_@h_ T@?i* _@|@ it|4@|Lh uLh UL?| 4L_i*t | ULhhi*@|i_ i_ igiU|t t |i LttL? UL?_|L?@* 4@ 44 *!i*LL_ it|4@|Lh ThLTLti_ M) O@t4@?c O@** @?_ Bh*Uit EbHe `i tL |@| |t it|4@|Lh t |i t@4i @t |i LttL? 4@ 44 *!i*LL_ it|4@|Lh ? @ 4L_i* | ?__@* tTiUU UL?t|@?|tc @t |i LttL? 4L_i* _Lit ?L| tgih uhL4 |i ?U_i?|@* T@h@4i|ih ThLM*i4 At it|4@|Lh t i^ @*i?| |L @ 4L4i?| it|4@|Lh ? @ 4L_i* ihi |i i_ igiU|t @hi hiT*@Ui_ M) |i h@|L Lu |? }hLT 4i@?t W| t |ihiuLhi ?UL?tt|i?| uLh |i T@h@4i|iht Lu ?|ihit| u |i hi}hittLht @hi Thi_i|ih4?i_ @?_ |ihiuLhi @hi ?L| t|hU|*) i L}i?Lt
6Lh |i U@ti Lu Thi_i|ih4?i_ hi}hittLhtc @4Mih*@? Ebb2c bb @?_ `LL*_h_}i Ebb. @i _ii*LTi_ @ UL?tt|i?| ^@t_gihi?Ui_ B it|4@|Lh At @t Mii?
4Vhh Krow}0Hdnlq/ Qhzh| dqg Urvhq +4<;;,/ Duhoodqr dqg Erqg +4<<4, dqg Dkq dqg Vfkplgw
+4<<8,/ iru h{dpsoh1
@TT*i_ |L |i it|4@|L? Lu UL?| _@|@ 4L_i*t | Thi_i|ih4?i_ hi}hittLht M) L? |@*L Ebb.c hiTL? @?_ #}i| Ebb.c @?_ ?Uih@ Ebb. W? |t T@Tih i i |i?_ |t ^@t_gihi?Ui_ B it|4@|Lh |L |i _)?@4U *?i@h uii_M@U! 4L_i*c @?_ ?it|}@|i |t t4@** t@4T*i Mi@Lh M) 4i@?t Lu @ L?|i @h*L t|_)
h ?it|}@|L?t tL |@| |i ^@t_gihi?Ui_ B it|4@|Lh U@? Mi tiihi*) M@ti_ ? t4@** t@4T*it i? hi}hittLht @hi }*) Tihtt|i?|c @?_ |i ?t|h4i?|t |ihiuLhi i@! Thi_U|Lht Lu |i i?_L}i?Lt @h@M*it ? |i _gihi?Ui_ 4L_i* t @? @*|ih?@|i it|4@|Lh i ThLTLti @ Thit@4T*i 4i@? E5 it|4@|Lh |@| hiT*@Uit
|i i_ igiU| M) |i Thit@4T*i 4i@? Lu |i _iTi?_i?| @h@M*i At it|4@|Lh t
tTiUU@**) _it}?i_ |L i T*L| _@|@ ti|t ihi ?uLh4@|L? L? |i _iTi?_i?| @h@M*i t @@*@M*i uLh i@h*ih )i@ht |@? ?uLh4@|L? L? |i hi}hittLht At t @ UL44L? t|@|L? ihi @_4?t|h@|i _@|@c tU @t T@|i?|t Lh ??L@|L? tihitc t 4@|Ui_
| thi) Lh @UUL?|?} _@|@2 At it|4@|Lh t UL?tt|i?| i? |i ?4Mih Lu
Thit@4T*i TihL_t }i|t *@h}i
AL i T*U|*) 4L_i* |i _)?@4Ut Lu |i UL?| ThLUitt ? T@?i* _@|@ i UL?t_ih |i *?i@h uii_M@U! 4L_i* Ew6 At @t |t uL?_@|L?t ? |i W?|i}ih V@*i_ |Lhi}hitti EW+ }i?ih@*t@|L? Lu |i LttL? 4L_i* |L |i + ThLUitt _ii*LTi_ M) *t @?_ *3@_ EbH.c Uki?3i EbHH @?_ h@??@t Ebbe W? |t 4L_i* |i UL?_|L?@* 4i@? Lu |i UL?| @h@M*i t 4L_i**i_ *?i@h*) ? |i t|Lh) Lu |i ThLUitt At tTiUU@|L? t tL? |L Mi i** @_@T|i_ |L iUL?L4U @TT*U@|L?t @?_ itTiU@**) UL?i?i?| uLh ?_iht|@?_?} |i _)?@4U ThLTih|it Lu UL?| _@|@ ThLUittit
? @TT*U@|L? t 4@_i |L |i _@|@ ti| Lu N5 h4t< +:# i Ti?_|hi @?_ T@|i?|?} @U||) ti_ ? O@**c Bh*Uit @?_ O@t4@? EbHS @?_ hi*@|i_ Lh! Ai ttit @__hitti_ ? |t i@h*ih Lh! hi*@|i |L ^@?|u)?} |i +:# ULt| Lu @ T@|i?| @?_ @ttitt?} |i |4?} Lu hi|h?t |L +:# At t 4@_i _U*| M) |i u@U| |@| ?L|
5H{dpsohv ri wkhvh w|shv ri gdwd vhwv lqfoxgh wkh VSUX gdwd lq wkh XN/ vhh Sdylww/ Urevrq dqg
Wrzqvhqg +4<;:,/ dqg sdwhqw dqg U)G vhulhv lq pdq| frxqwulhv1
L?*) 4@) +:# i Ti?_|hit *i@_ |L T@|i?|t M| @*tL T@|i?|t 4@) |i4ti*it ?_Ui u|hi +:# i Ti?_|hit L?ti^i?|*)c +:# t ?*!i*) |L Mi t|hU|*) i L}i?Lt
Ai *@)L| Lu |i T@Tih t @t uL**Lt W? |i ?i | tiU|L? i _tUtt |i Lt tL? 4@ 44 *!i*LL_ it|4@|Lh uLh UL?| _@|@ ? @ 4L_i* | ?__@* tTiUU UL?t|@?|t @?_ tL |t i^@*i?Ui | |i LttL? UL?_|L?@* 4@ 44 *!i*LL_ it|4@|Lh Ai ti Lu @ ^@t_gihi?Ui_ B it|4@|Lh uLh @ 4L_i* | Thi_i|ih 4?i_ hi}hittLht t UL?t_ihi_c @?_ |i Thit@4T*i 4i@? it|4@|Lh t ?|hL_Ui_ W? tiU|L? c |i *?i@h uii_M@U! 4L_i* t Thiti?|i_ @?_ |i it|4@|L? Lu |i 4L_i* t _tUtti_ 5iU|L? e Thiti?|t hit*|t Lu @ L?|i @h*L t4*@|L? t|_) @?_ ? tiU|L? D |i _)?@4U 4L_i* @?_ @hLt it|4@|Lht @hi @TT*i_ |L |i T@|i?|+:# _@|@
2 6 i_ ,giU|t L_i*t uLh L?| #@|@
wi|+|_i?L|i |i _tUhi|i UL?| @h@M*i |L Mi i T*@?i_ uLh tMiU|c ' c c c
@| |4i |c | ' c c A( @?_ *i| %| _i?L|i @ iU|Lh Lu i T*@?@|Lh) @h@M*it Ai
i TL?i?|@* ELh *L}*?! 4L_i* Lu |i uLh4
.E+|m%| ' i T E%|qc E2
t UL44L?*) ti_ uLh UL?| _@|@ ? 4TLh|@?| ui@|hi ? T@?i* _@|@ @TT*U@|L?t
t ?LMtihi_ i|ihL}i?i|) Lh ?__@* i_ igiU|t 6Lh UL?| _@|@ 4L_i*t |iti igiU|t @hi }i?ih@**) 4L_i**i_ 4*|T*U@|i*) @t
.E+|m%|c # ' i T E%|qn# E22
' >|Dc
ihi>|i T E%|qc @?_ D i T E# t @ Tih4@?i?| tU@*?} u@U|Lh uLh |i ?__
@* tTiUU 4i@? At 4T*U|*) _i?it @ hi}hittL? 4L_i*
+|'>|Dn| E2
6Vhh Jrxulhurx{/ Prqiruw dqg Wurjqrq +4<;7,/ PfFxoodjk dqg Qhoghu +4<;<,/ Fdphurq dqg
Wulyhgl +4<;9, dqg Zlqnhopdqq +4<<:, iru jrrg jhqhudo glvfxvvlrqv ri wkhvh prghov1
W? }i?ih@*c | t *!i*) |@| |i ?LMtihi_ i_ UL4TL?i?|t# @hi ULhhi*@|i_ | |i
i T*@?@|Lh) @h@M*itc.E%|#9' fc @?_ |ihiuLhi t|@?_@h_ h@?_L4 igiU|t it|4@|Lht
** Mi ?UL?tt|i?|
2 5|hU|*) , L}i?Lt +i}hittLht
`i? |i%| @hi t|hU|*) i L}i?Ltc |i UL?_|L?@* 4i@? Lu +| t@|tit
.E+|mDc %| '.E+|mDc %c c %A E2e
6Lh |t U@tic tiih@* it|4@|Lht uLhq @i Mii? ThLTLti_ |@| @**L uLh ?__@* iu uiU|t |L Mi ULhhi*@|i_ | |i hi}hittLht O@t4@?c O@** @?_ Bh*Uit EbHe ti |i
LttL? UL?_|L?@* 4@ 44 *!i*LL_ it|4@|Lh Ew,c UL?_|L??} L?SA
|'+|c
U t |i tUi?| t|@|t|U uLh # At 4i|L_ 44Ut |i i_ igiU| *L}| @T
ThL@U Lu @4Mih*@? EbHe OLiihc |i LttL? 4@ 44 *!i*LL_ it|4@|Lh
Ew, uLh q ? @ 4L_i* | tiT@h@|i ?__@* tTiUU UL?t|@?|t _Lit ?L| tgih
uhL4 |i ?U_i?|@* T@h@4i|iht ThLM*i4c @?_ t |ihiuLhi UL?tt|i?| E@?_c i tL Mi*Lc t |i t@4i @t |i w, AL tii |tc ?L|i |@| |i 4@ 44 *!i*LL_ ht| Lh_ih UL?_|L?t uLh |i D @hi }i? M)
Y*?u YD '
A
[
|'
YE+|*? E>|D>|D
YD '
A
[
|'
+
|
D >|
' f
@?_ |ihiuLhi |i w, uLhD t }i? M)
e
DEu ' +> c
ihi + 'A3SA
|'+| @?_ > 'A3SA|'i T E%|q Ai w, Lu |i i_ igiU| t
?_iTi?_i?| LuD 5Mt|||?} |i i_ igiU|t it|4@|it ? |i ht| Lh_ih UL?_|L?t
uLh q hit*|t ?
Y*?u
Yq EDe '
[ ' A [ |' #
+|>|>+
$
%|' f
`i? %| t t|hU|*) i L}i?Ltc
T*4<" YYq*?uEDe ' T*4<" [ ' A [ |' #
| >>|
$
%| ' fc
| ' A3SA|'|c @?_ |ihiuLhi |i w, uLh q t UL?tt|i?|e W | t uh|ih
_i?|U@* |L |i w, Ai *@||ih U@? Mi tii? @t uL**Lt Ai LttL? UL?_|L?@* *L}
*!i*LL_ u?U|L? t }i? M)D
*?u'[
' A
[
|'
KE+|n [ ' A [ |' +|*? % A [ r'
i T EE%|%rq
& c
ihi KE t |i }@44@ u?U|L? Ai ht|Lh_ih UL?_|L? uLh q t
Y*?u
Yq ' [ ' A [ |' +| SA
r'i T EE%|%rq A
[
r'i T EE%|%r q E%
|%r
' [ ' A [ |'+|%| [ ' A [ |'+| SA
r'%ri T E%rq
SA
r'i T E%rq
' [ ' A [ |'%| #
+|>|>+
$ c
U t i @U|*) |i t@4i @t |i w, ht| Lh_ih UL?_|L? uLh q
Ai ht| Lh_ih UL?_|L?t 4T*) |@| |i LttL? w, uLh q t i^@*i?| |L |i
4L4i?| it|4@|Lh ? @ 4L_i* ihi |i h@|L Lu ?__@*c Lh |? }hLTc 4i@?t
@hi ti_ |L @TThL 4@|i |i ?__@* tTiUU igiU|t At 4i@? tU@*?} 4L_i* t
}i? M)
+| '>|>+ n
W
|c E2D
ihiW
|'|>>| `i U@** |t it|4@|Lh |i|? }hLT 4i@? tU@*?}it|4@|LhS
Ai hit*|t @hi t44@hti_ ? |i uL**L?} *i44@
wi44@ Ai LttL? w, uLh q ? |i 4L_i* | tiT@h@|i ?__@* UL?t|@?|t t UL?tt|i?| @?_ |i t@4i @t |i LttL? w, Ai it|4@|Lh t _i?|U@* |L |i 4L4i?| it|4@|Lh ? @ 4i@? tU@*?} 4L_i* tL*?} |i 4L4i?| UL?_|L?t
[ ' A [ |' %| #
+|>|>+
$
' fc E2S
ihi>| ' i T E%|q
7Odqfdvwhu +4<<:, qgv wkh vdph uhvxow iru wkh Srlvvrq prgho e| phdqv ri d ghfrpsrvlwlrq ri wkh
olnholkrrg1
8Vhh Kdxvpdq/ Kdoo dqg Julolfkhv +4<;7/ s1 <4<,1
9Fohduo|/ wkh Srlvvrq svhxgr0olnholkrrg uhvxowv duh suhvhuyhg1
22 hi_i|ih4?i_ +i}hittLht
W? iUL?L4U @TT*U@|L?t | t UL44L?*) |i U@ti |@| |ihi t uii_M@U! uhL4 |i _iTi?_i?| @h@M*i |L |i i T*@?@|Lh) @h@M*it hi}hittLh t Thi_i|ih4?i_ i? | t ?L| ULhhi*@|i_ | Uhhi?| @?_ u|hi tLU!tc M| | t ULhhi*@|i_ | T@t| tLU!tG
.E%||n ' fc f
.E%||3r 9' fc r
`| Thi_i|ih4?i_ hi}hittLhtc UL?_|L? E2e _Lit ?L| L*_ @?_ |ihiuLhi |i it| 4@|Lh Luq|@| tL*it |i t@4T*i 4L4i?| UL?_|L?t E2S t ?L *L?}ih UL?tt|i?| t?Ui
%| t ?L ULhhi*@|i_ |W| |hL} At hit*| t @?@*L}Lt |L |i ?UL?tt|i?U)
hit*| uLh |i |? }hLT it|4@|Lh uLh *?i@h T@?i* _@|@ 4L_i*t | Thi_i|ih4?i_ hi}hittLht ? tLh| T@?i*t.
@4Mih*@? Ebb2 @?_ `LL*_h_}i Ebb. @i ThLTLti_ |h@?tuLh4@|L?t |@| i*4?@|i |i i_ igiU| uhL4 |i 4*|T*U@|i 4L_i* @?_ }i?ih@|i Lh|L}L?@*|) UL?_|L?t |@| U@? Mi ti_ uLh UL?tt|i?| it|4@|L? ? UL?| _@|@ 4L_i*t | Thi _i|ih4?i_ hi}hittLhtH Ai |h@?tuLh4@|L? t
r| ' +|>>|3
| +|3 E2.
' |>>|3
| |3
wi| %|3
' E%c c %|3 `i? %| t Thi_i|ih4?i_c |i uL**L?} A EA *2
4L4i?| UL?_|L?t L*_G
.r|m%|3
'.D%|3
.r|mDc %|3
' fc E2H
t?} |i *@ Lu |ih@|i_ i TiU|@|L?t
:Vhh Qlfnhoo +4<;4,1
;Iru txdvl0glhuhqfhg prphqw frqglwlrqv wkdw duh ydolg zkhq {
lwlv hqgrjhqrxvo| ghwhuplqhg/ vhh
Zrrogulgjh +4<<4, dqg Zlqgphlmhu +5333,1
h|L}L?@*|) UL?_|L? E2H U@? Mi ti_ |L UL?tt|i?|*) it|4@|i |i 4L_i* T@
h@4i|ihtq M) |i B it|4@|L? |iU?^ib At it|4@|Lh 4?4tit
# [ ' r ~ $ `3 # [ ' ~ r $ c
ihir t |i A iU|Lh Lu hit_@*tir|jc~ t |i 4@|h Lu ?t|h4i?|t @?_`
t @ i}| 4@|h Ai LT|4@* i}| 4@|h t }i? M)
` '
[
'~
rEqhrEqh~c
ihirEqh t M@ti_ L? @? ?|@* UL?tt|i?| it|4@|iqh
`i? L?*) %|3 t ti_ @t @? ?t|h4i?|c |i B it|4@|Lh tL*it |i t@4T*i
4L4i?| UL?_|L?t [ ' A [
|'2%|3r| '
[
' A
[
|'2%|3
#
+|3>|3>+| |
$
' fc E2b
U @hi t4*@h |L |i ht|Lh_ih UL?_|L? Lu |i 4i@? tU@*?} it|4@|Lh E2Sc M|
*i@_tLu + @?_ >@hi ti_ |L it|4@|i D ?t|i@_ Lu t@4T*i 4i@?t
2 hi5@4T*i i@? ,t|4@|Lh
UL44L? ThLM*i4 | |i B it|4@|L? Lu E^@t_gihi?Ui_ 4L_i*t t ?} *@}t @t ?t|h4i?|t |L Thi_U| u|hi U@?}it t |@| i? iUL?L4U tihit @hi }*) Tihtt|i?| |i ?t|h4i?|t @hi ih) i@! Thi_U|Lht At hit*|t ? @ t4@** t@4T*i M@t Lu |i B it|4@|Lh ? |i _hiU|L? Lu |i it|4@|Lh |@| tit |i i T*@?@|Lh) @h@M*it |i4ti*itc U @hi i?_L}i?Lt ? |i _gihi?Ui_ i^@|L?c @t ?t|h4i?|tf
W? |i T@|i?|t @?_ +:# @TT*U@|L? Thiti?|i_ Mi*Lc @t ? 4@?) @TT*U@|L?tc ML| tihit @hi }*) Tihtt|i?| Lih |4i @?_ |ihi t Thit@4T*i ?uLh4@|L? Ei @ *L?}ih |4i tihit L? |i _iTi?_i?| @h@M*i E|i T@|i?| tihit ? it|4@|Lh |@|
<Vhh Kdqvhq +4<;5,1
43Vhh Vwdljhu dqg Vwrfn +4<<:,/ dqg Eoxqghoo dqg Erqg +4<<;,1
|*tit |t Thit@4T*i ?uLh4@|L? t @ 4L4i?| it|4@|Lh ? |i 4L_i*
+| ' i T
qW
f n%|qn*?+R
n0|c
ihi +R '
A
SA 3
o'f +f3o t |i Thit@4T*i 4i@? Lu +( A t |i ?4Mih Lu Thi
t@4T*i LMtih@|L?t @?_t @ T@h@4i|ih |L Mi it|4@|i_ 6Lh UL?i?i?Uic i @tt4i |@| |ihi t @ t?}*i hi}hittLh ? |i 4L_i*c |i i |i?tL? |L 4*|T*i hi}hittLht t t|h@}|uLh@h_ Ai 4L4i?| it|4@|Lh tL*it |i t| _i?|i_ t@4T*i 4L4i?| UL?_|L?t [ ' A [ |' 5|
+|i T
qW
f n%|qn*?+R
' fc E2f
ihi5|'
c %|c*?+R
`i U@** |t it|4@|Lh |i Thit@4T*i 4i@? it|4@|Lh Ai
uL**L?} *i44@ @?_ ULhL**@h) t|@|i |i }i?ih@* UL?_|L?t ?_ih U |t it|4@|Lh t UL?tt|i?|
wi44@ 2 Ai 4L4i?| it|4@|Lh |@| tL*it |i t@4T*i 4L4i?| UL?_|L?t E2f t UL?tt|i?| uLh $ 4 @?_ A $ 4cu
*?+R' *?
#
A
A 3[ o'f +f3o
$
'@nK# nJREA Ec E2
ihi @ h@?_L4 @h@M*i^A tJREA Eu T*4A <"E^A ' f Ai T@h@4i|iht @hi
|i? }i? M)'
K @?_ qfW 'qf @K
hLLuG Nt?} ThLTih|) E2c |i 4L4i?|t UL?_|L?t E2f U@? Mi h||i? @t [ ' A [ |' 5|
i T Eqfn%|qn#i T
qW
f n%|qn
@nK#nJREA E
n|
' f
Ai ULhhitTL?_?} TLT*@|L? 4L4i?| UL?_|L?t L*_ uLh '
K @?_ qfW 'qf @K @t
? |@| U@ti
.A <" A
[
|'5|
i T Eqfn%|qn#
i TJREA E
n|
' fc
@t |i |ih4 ?L*?} i TJREA E
@?tit i?A $ 4
Ai ?i | ULhL**@h) t|@|it |i UL?_|L?t |@| |i %| ThLUitt @t |L t@|tu) ? Lh_ih
uLh |i UL?_|L?t Lu wi44@ 2 |L L*_
LhL**@h) Ai UL?_|L? E2 L*_t @?_ |i Thit@4T*i 4i@? it|4@|Lh t UL? tt|i?| uLh $ 4 @?_ A $ 4 u |i %| ThLUitt t @ t|@|L?@h) _ ThLUitt |
?|i 4L4i?|t @?_ |t E*L?}h? 4i@? ThLTLh|L?@* |L#
hLLuG `h|i |i %| ThLUitt |@| t@|tit |i UL?_|L?t Lu |i ULhL**@h) @t
%| 'b#n|
Nt?} @ A@)*Lh tihit i T@?tL?c |i i TiU|@|L? Lu +| UL?_|L?@* L? # t |i? }i?
M)
.E+|m# ' .Ei T Eqfn%|qn# n|
' .Ei T Eqfn E nqb#|Wc
ihi W
| 'S"'fq
-| AihiuLhic M) |i *@ Lu *@h}i ?4Mihtc |i *L}@h|4 Lu |i
Thit@4T*i 4i@? t i^@* |L
*?+R'@n E nqb#nJREA Ec
ihi@ 'qfn *?S"'f q
-.E
? i @4T*i Lu @ t|@|L?@h)%| ThLUitt |@| t@|tit |i UL?_|L?t Lu |i ULhL**@h)
t %| ' 4%|3 n # n 0|c | |i 0| _ | ?|i 4L4i?|t Ai? b ' 34
@?_ | ' S"'f40|3 L|i |@| u %| t uh|ih ?Lh4@**) _t|hM|i_c @ t }i? M)
qfn2q2j2
w?i@h 6ii_M@U! L_i*
W?|hL_U?} _)?@4Ut ?|L 4L_i*t Lu |i uLh4 E22 t ?L| t|h@}|uLh@h_ t?Ui |i UL?_|L?@* 4i@? t hi^hi_ |L hi4@? TLt|i W?U*tL? Lu u?U|L?t Lu |i *@}}i_ _iTi?_i?| @h@M*i ? |i i TL?i?|@* u?U|L? U@? *i@_ |L i T*Lti tihit Lh |L ThLM*i4t | |h@?tuLh4?} 3ihL @*it Ai _)?@4U tTiUU@|L? UL?t_ihi_ ihi
t @ *?i@h uii_M@U! 4L_i* Ai UL?_|L?@* 4i@? ? |i *?i@h uii_M@U! 4L_i* Ew6 t _i?i_ @t
.E+|m+|3c %|c D ' +|3n i TE%|qD E
+|3n>|D
Ai w6 @t |t Lh}?t ? |i W?|i}ihV@*i_ |Lhi}hitti EW+ ThLUittc
@?_ U@? Mi 4L|@|i_ @t @? i?|h)i | ThLUitt | |i ThLM@M*|) Lu i | i^@* |L
E Ai ULhhi*@|L? Lih |4i ? |i W+E 4L_i* |L| @__|L?@* hi}hittLht
t }i? M)
SJooE+|c +|3 ' c
| : fc @t L?*) TLt|i @ttLU@|L? t TLttM*i 5?Ui >|D t ?L??i}@|ic |i
4i@? @*i uLh +| t ML?_i_ Mi*L M)+|3
,i? i? |i%|@hi t|hU|*) i L}i?Ltc |i |? }hLTt 4i@? tU@*?} it|4@|Lh
** Mi ?UL?tt|i?| uLh t4@** Ac @t |i *@}}i_ _iTi?_i?| @h@M*i t @ Thi_i|ih4?i_
@h@M*i2 6Lh it|4@|L? M) Bc |i ^@t_gihi?Ui_ |h@?tuLh4@|L? uLh |i w6
4L_i* t }i? M)
r| ' E+|+|3>>|3
| E+|3+|32 '|
>|3
>| |3c E2
ihi | ' +| .E+|m+|3c %|c D W? |i U@ti Lu @ t?}*i hi}hittLh %|c U t
t|hU|*) i L}i?Ltc |i uL**L?} EA EA 2*2 nA EA 2 4L4i?| UL?_|L?t L*_
.Er|m+c c +|32c %c c %A ' f E
6Lh Thi_i|ih4?i_%| |i EA EA 2*2nAEA *2 4L4i?| UL?_|L?t @hi
.Er|m+c c +|32c %c c %|3 ' f Ee
44Vhh Do0Rvk dqg Do}dlg +4<;:,/ PfNhq}lh +4<;;,/ Urqqlqj dqg Mxqj +4<<5,/ Eudqqdv +4<<7, dqg
Erfnhqkrow +4<<<,1 Iru h{whqvlrq ri wkh LQDU+4, wr wkh LQDU+s, prgho vhh Do}dlg dqg Do0Rvk +4<<3, dqg Mlq0Jxdq dqg \xdq +4<<4,1
45Qrwh wkdw iru wkh OIP wkh zlwklq jurxsv phdq vfdolqj hvwlpdwru lv qr orqjhu htxlydohqw wr wkh
Srlvvrq {hg hhfwv POH1
Ai t| _i?|i_ t@4T*i 4L4i?|t uLh |i Thit@4T*i 4i@? it|4@|Lh uLh |i w6 @hi }i? M)
[ ' A [ |'2 5|
+|+|3i T
qW
f n%|qn*?+R
' fc ED
ihi5| '
c +|3c %|c*?+R
At it|4@|Lh t UL?tt|i?| ?_ih |i t@4i UL?_|L?t @t t|@|i_ ? wi44@ 2 @?_ LhL**@h) Ai UL?t|@?|qW
f t ? |t U@ti uh|ih tu|i_
M) *? E*c @t |i E*L?}h? 4i@? Lu +| UL?_|L?@* L? # t }i? M)
.E+|m# ' .
3 C["
'f
i T Eq
fn%|3qn#
4 D
' .
3 C["
'f
i T Eq
fn E nbq#nq|3
4 D
'
3
Ci T Eqfn E nqb#["
'f q -. 4 D
e L?|i @h*L +it*|t
iuLhi |h??} |L |i i4ThU@* @TT*U@|L? | t 4TLh|@?| |L ThL_i @? i@*@|L? Lu |i TihuLh4@?Ui Lu |i it|4@|Lht _itUhMi_ ? |i ThiLt tiU|L?t uLh |i *?i@h uii_M@U! 4L_i* 6ht|c hit*|t Lu tL4i L?|i @h*L i Tih4i?|t @hi Thiti?|i_ | @ _it}? ihi |i i T*@?@|Lh) @h@M*it @hi ?L| ih) Tihtt|i?|c @?_ tL |i ^@t _gihi?Ui_ B it|4@|Lh t i TiU|i_ |L TihuLh4 hi*@|i*) i** Ai TihuLh4@?Uit Lu |i it|4@|Lht @hi |i? ?it|}@|i_ ? |i *?i@h uii_M@U! 4L_i* uLh %| ThLUittit
|@| @hi 4Lhi Tihtt|i?| Lih |4i Ai Thit@4T*i 4i@? it|4@|Lh t uL?_ |L @i t4@**ih M@t @?_ *Lih hLL| 4i@? t^@hi_ ihhLh ? @*4Lt| @** ti||?}t
Ai _@|@ }i?ih@|?} ThLUittit @hi
+| JrrJ?E+|3n i T Eq%|n#
%| ' 4%|3n#n0|
%f ' 4# n1
+f JrrJ?Ei T E%fqn#
#
k
fc j2 #
l
0|
k
fc j2 0
l
1
%
fc j02
42
&
6u|) TihL_t @hi }i?ih@|i_ MiuLhi |i t@4T*i t _h@?
+it*|t uLh |i _@|@ }i?ih@|?} ThLUitt | T@h@4i|ih @*it ' fDc q ' fDc
4' fDc ' fcj2
# ' fD @?_ j02 ' fD @hi Thiti?|i_ ? A@M*it e @?_ e2 uLh A ' e
@?_ A ' H hitTiU|i*) @?_ t@4T*i t3it ' ffc ' Dffc @?_ ' fff Ai M@t
@?_ hLL| 4i@? t^@hi_ ihhLh E+5, @hi hiTLh|i_ uLh @hLt it|4@|Lht Lu @?_ qc uLh fff hiT*U@|L?t
Ai |@M*it hiTLh| hit*|t uLh @ *ii*t it|4@|Lh |@| _Lit ?L| |@!i @UUL?| Lu ? LMtihi_ i|ihL}i?i|) @?_ tL*it |i 4L4i?| UL?_|L?t
[
' A
[
|'25|E+|+|3i T Eqfn%|q ' fc Ee
| 5| ' Ec +|3c %| Aiti it|4@|it @hi _i?L|i_,eD @?_ q,eD t t U*i@h uhL4
|i |@M*itc |iti *ii* it|4@|it @hi UL?t_ih@M*) M@ti_ T@h_t
+it*|t uLh |i |? }hLT 4i@? tU@*?} it|4@|Lh @hi @*tL hiTLh|i_ At it| 4@|Lh tL*it |i 4L4i?| UL?_|L?t
[
' A
[
|'25|
#
+|+|3>|+>+c3
$
' fc Ee2
|5| ' E+|3c %|c+ ' A 3
SA
|'2+|c+c3 ' A 3
SA
|'2+|3c @?_> ' A 3
SA
|'2i T E%|q
Aiti it|4@|it @hi _i?L|i_}@?_q}? |i |@M*it t i TiU|i_c |i |? }hLT
it|4@|it @hi M@ti_ _L?@h_t
Ai Thit@4T*i 4i@? it|4@|Lht |@| tL*i ED @hi _i?L|i_ Rr6 @?_ qRr6
+it*|t @hi hiTLh|i_ uLh Hc 2D @?_ Df Thit@4T*i TihL_t hitTiU|i*) Ai M@t @?_ +5, Lu |iti it|4@|it @hi hi*@|i*) t4@**c @?_ ML| _iUhi@ti @t |i ?4Mih Lu
Thit@4T*i TihL_t ?Uhi@tit W?Uhi@t?} |i t@4T*i t3i @?_%Lh A _Lit 4ThLi
|i +5,c M| L?*) 4@h}?@**) tL
A@M*i eG L?|i @h*L hit*|t uLh w?i@h 6ii_M@U! L_i*c A'e
' fD(q ' fD(4' fD( ' f(j2
# ' fD(j20 ' fD
' ff ' Dff ' fff
K@r o6re K@r o6re K@r o6re
,eD f2S2 f2.f f2.e f2.S f2.S f2.H
q,eD fDe. fSSb fDfS fDH fDfD fDS
} feDf feS feeD feeH feeS fee.
q} f2S2 f2.D f2S f2S f2S2 f2S
Rr6H ffDe ffbD ffSS ff.S ffSD ff.f
qRr6H ffDH feD ffS ffH. ffDb ff.2
Rr62D ff2e ff.S fff ffeS ff ffb
qRr62D ff2e fS ff2b ffDH ff2. ffee
Rr6Df fffb ff.2 ffD ffS ffS ff2H
qRr6Df fffb ff. ffD ffDf ff ffD
^_Ro f2S f ffb2 fD ffSf ffbe
q^_Ro f2. fD f22 fHe ffHS fe
^_re f2S f2bD ffH fH ffDf ffH2
q^_re fHf f222 ffHf fS ffDf ffbf
L|it |L A@M*iG 4Mih Lu hiT*U@|L?t t fffc ,e t *ii*t |L| i_ igiU|tc
} t |? }hLT 4i@? tU@*?}c Rr6A t Thit@4T*i 4i@? | A Thi t@4T*i
TihL_tc ^_RoEre t ^@t_gihi?Ui_ B @tt4?} %| t Thi_i|ih4?i_ Et|hU|*)
i L}i?Lt Ai ?t|h4i?| ti| uLh |i ^_ B it|4@|Lh ?U*_it |4i _44it
Ai ?@* ti| Lu hit*|t @hi uLh |i ^@t_gihi?Ui_ B it|4@|Lh tt4?} |@| |i %| @hi Thi_i|ih4?i_c @?_ tL L?*) t?} 4L4i?| UL?_|L?t Ee hit*|t ?
|i it|4@|it^_Ro@?_q^_Ro tt4?} |@| |i hi}hittLh t t|hU|*) i L}i?Ltc @?_ |ihiuLhi |*t?} |i *@h}ih ti| Lu 4L4i?| UL?_|L?t E hit*|t ? |i it|4@|it
^_re@?_q^_re Bi? |i @) |i _@|@ t }i?ih@|i_ |i t|hU| i L}i?i|) @tt4T|L?
46Xvlqj erwk zlwklq dqg suh0vdpsoh lqirupdwlrq wr frqvwuxfw wkh lqglylgxdo phdq ri wkh ghshqghqw
yduldeoh lpsuryhv wkh shuirupdqfh ri wkh hvwlpdwru iru voljkwo|/ exw wkh eldv dqg UPVH ri wkh hvwlpdwru iru lqfuhdvh/ hvshfldoo| iru orz ydoxhv ri W dqg W S1
A@M*i e2G L?|i @h*L hit*|t uLh w?i@h 6ii_M@U! L_i*c A'H
' fD(q ' fD(4' fD( ' f(j2
# ' fD(j20 ' fD
' ff ' Dff ' fff
K@r o6re K@r o6re K@r o6re
,e f2S f2SH f2.e f2.D f2.H f2.b
q,e fDfe fS. fDfD fDSD fDDe fDS
} fHS fbD fHe fHS fHe fHD
q} f2D fef f2S f2b f2H f2b
Rr6H ff.e ffHb ffHe ffH. ffH. ffHH
qRr6H ffH fb ffH. ffbS ffHS ffbf
Rr62D ff2 ffDS ffe ffeS ffe ffeS
qRr62D ffD ffH2 ffb ffD ffb ffeD
Rr6Df ffD ffe. ff2 ff2 ff2D ff2b
qRr6Df ffH ff. ff22 ffH ff2 fff
^_Ro ff f. ffb. ffS ffDS ffSS
q^_Ro f2.H f2bf f. fe. ffb ff2
^_re fe. fDb ffD f ffSf ffSS
q^_re f2DS f2S f2 fH ff.2 ff.H
L|it |L A@M*iG 4Mih Lu hiT*U@|L?t t fffc ,e t *ii*t |L| i_ igiU|tc
} t |? }hLT 4i@? tU@*?}c Rr6A t Thit@4T*i 4i@? | A Thi t@4T*i
TihL_tc ^_RoEre t ^@t_gihi?Ui_ B @tt4?} %| t Thi_i|ih4?i_ Et|hU|*)
i L}i?Lt Ai ?t|h4i?| ti| uLh |i ^_ B it|4@|Lh ?U*_it |4i _44it
t @*_ 6Lh ML| @*it LuA |i ^@t_gihi?Ui_ B it|4@|Lh t _L?@h_ M@ti_ uLh t4@** @*it Lu Ai M@t @?_ +5, _iUhi@ti i? |i t@4T*i t3i ?Uhi@titc
M| |i hit*|t @hi ih) t4*@h uLh A ' e @?_ A ' H Nt?} |i i |h@ 4L4i?|
UL?_|L?t _i |L |i t|hU| i L}i?i|) Lu |i hi}hittLh 4ThLit |i TihuLh4@?Ui Lu |i it|4@|Lh Luq M| ?L| Lu |@| Lu ,tTiU@**) i? A ' Hc ^_reTihuLh4t Lhti
|@? ^_Roc ML| ? |ih4t Lu M@t @?_ +5,
L4T@h?} |i B ^@t_gihi?Ui_ it|4@|it E^_Roc ^_re |L |i Thit@4T*i
4i@? it|4@|itc | MiUL4it U*i@h |@| uLh |t T@h|U*@h _@|@ }i?ih@|?} ThLUitt |i Thit@4T*i 4i@? it|4@|Lh L|TihuLh4t |i B ^@t_gihi?Ui_ it|4@|Lh ? @* 4Lt| @** U@titc ii? uLh @ ?4Mih Lu Thit@4T*i LMtih@|L?t @t t4@** @t H W? T@h |U*@hc |i ^@t_gihi?Ui_ B it|4@|Lh uLh |i *?i@h uii_M@U! 4L_i* tii4t |L tgih uhL4 @ TLLh t4@** t@4T*i TihuLh4@?Ui
Ai TihuLh4@?Ui Lu |i it|4@|Lht ? |i *?i@h uii_M@U! 4L_i* uLh %| ThLUittit
|@| @hi 4Lhi Tihtt|i?| Lih |4i @hi UL?t_ihi_ ?i | Ai T@h@4i|iht @hi ti| |L
k' f.c q ' c ' fc tL %| t ?L| ULhhi*@|i_ | # ? |t U@tic @?_ j#2 ' fD Ai
t@4T*i t3i t ' DffcA ' H AL _gihi?| ThLUittit uLh |i hi}hittLh @hi UL?t_ihi_c @ Tihtt|i?| ThLUitt | 4 ' fb @?_ j2
0 ' ffDc @?_ @? ii? 4Lhi Tihtt|i?| tihit
| 4' fbD @?_ j2
0 ' ffD @t @?_ +5, uLh |i it|4@|Lht uLh |iti |L _@|@
}i?ih@|?} ThLUittit @hi }i? ? A@M*i ec @}@? uLh fff hiT*U@|L?t `i? 4 ' fb @?_ j2
0 ' ffDc |i hit*|t @hi ih) t4*@h |L |Lti Thiti?|i_ ?
A@M*it e @?_ e2c | |i Thit@4T*i 4i@? it|4@|Lh L|TihuLh4?} |i ^@t _gihi?Ui_ B it|4@|Lh OLiihc |i M@t @?_ +5, uLh |i Thit@4T*i 4i@? it|4@|Lh Luq ?Uhi@ti i? |i%| tihit MiUL4i ih) Tihtt|i?|c i?4' fbD @?_
j2
0 ' ffD At t _i |L |i u@U| |@| |i ?uLh4@|L? UL?|@?i_ ? *?+R MiUL4it
4Lhi @?_ 4Lhi *!i |@| UL?|@?i_ ?%|i? |i%|ThLUitt MiUL4it 4Lhi Tihtt|i?|
AihiuLhic |i tiT@h@|i it|4@|L? Luq @?_ |i T@h@4i|ih L?+RMiUL4it ThLM*i4@|U
_i |L |i 4*|UL**?i@h|) t |i @h@?Ui Lu |i i_ igiU|t # t hi*@|i*) *@h}ic
|i it|4@|L? Lu |i T@h@4i|ih L? +R ** }i| @ *@h}ih i}|c | |i it|4@|i uLh
q M@ti_ |L@h_t 3ihL
Aihi t @ ih) tMt|@?|@* _L?@h_ M@t i? |i T@h@4i|iht @hi it|4@|i_ M) ^@t_gihi?Ui_ Bc @?_ |i ThLM*i4 Lu ?t|h4i?|?} |i _gihi?Ui_%|tihit M)
*@}}i_ @*it MiUL4it U*i@hc @t |i +5, Luq^_Ro t *@h}ic 4U *@h}ih |@? |Lti uLh |i Thit@4T*i 4i@? it|4@|Lh
A@M*i eG L?|i @h*L hit*|t uLh w?i@h 6ii_M@U! L_i*c Tihtt|i?| tihit
k ' f.(q ' ( ' f(j2
# ' fDc ' Dffc A ' H
4' fbf(j2
0 ' ffD 4' fbD(j02 ' ffD
K@r o6re K@r o6re
,eD fH fH2 fH fHe
q,eD fe feH f2eb fS
} f2eD f2e. f2. f2.2
q} fS. f.e fS fHf
Rr6H ffbe ffb. ffH ffHe
qRr6H ffbb feS fSS fH2
Rr62D ff.e ff.. ffSS ffSb
qRr62D ffDS ffe f2HS ff2
Rr6Df ffDS ffSf ffDD ffDb
qRr6Df ff2H ffHf fbD f2D
^_Ro f2H fe2 f2. feS
q^_Ro fe2. fDfD feD f.e
^_re fS f.2 fSf f.D
q^_re fee fS fe fSS
L|it |L A@M*iG 4Mih Lu hiT*U@|L?t t fffc ,e t *ii*t |L| i_ igiU|tc
} t |? }hLT 4i@? tU@*?}c Rr6ErA t Thit@4T*i 4i@? EtU@*?} | A
Thi t@4T*i TihL_tc^_RoEre t ^@t_gihi?Ui_ B @tt4?} %| t Thi_i|ih4?i_
Et|hU|*) i L}i?Lt Ai ?t|h4i?| ti| uLh |i ^_ B it|4@|Lht ?U*_it |4i _44it
D ? TT*U@|L? |L |i +:# @?_ @|i?|t +i*@|L?tT
Ai _@|@ ti_ |L i @4?i |i ThLTih|it Lu |i @*|ih?@|i _)?@4U tTiUU@|L?t @hi |i T@|i?|+:# T@?i* _@|@ Lu O@**c Bh*Uit @?_ O@t4@? EbHSe Ai _@|@
UL?|@? ?uLh4@|L? L? +:# i Ti?_|hit Lu *@h}i N5 h4t Mi|ii? b.2 @?_ b.b @?_ @ UL?| Lu T@|i?|t @TT*i_ uLh @?_ tMti^i?|*) }h@?|i_ Mi|ii? bSD @?_ b.b Ai h4t ? |i _@|@ ti| @hi ef. h4t uLh U |ihi t @ Thit@4T*i t|Lh) Lu |i _iTi?_i?| @h@M*iD
5L4i _itUhT|i t|@|t|Ut @?_ |i ht| Lh_ih @|LULhhi*@|L?t Lu |i *?+:# @?_ T@|i?| tihit uLh |i |L }hLTt @hi }i? ? A@M*i D L| tihit @hi }*) @|Lhi }hitti
iuLhi Thiti?|?} |i it|4@|L? hit*|t uLh |i w6 tTiUU@|L?c i }i @? iUL?L4U ?|ihThi|@|L? Lu |i *?i@h uii_M@U! 4L_i* ? |ih4t Lu |i +:#T@|i?|t @TT*U@|L? Ai hi*@|L?tT Mi?} it|4@|i_ Mi|ii? T@|i?|t @?_ +:# U@? Mi ? |ihThi|i_ @t @ !?L*i_}i ThL_U|L? u?U|L? _itUhM?} |i ThL_U|L? Lu T@|i?|t uhL4 Uhhi?| @?_ T@t| +:# ?it|4i?| t4T*i @) |L h|i |t hi*@|L?tT t
'|'}E-|c -|3c c qc D ED
ihi '| t tL4i *@|i?| 4i@thi Lu |iU?L*L}U@* L|T| Lu h4 ? TihL_ |c -|
4i@thit |i ULhhitTL?_?} +:# ?it|4i?|c q hiThiti?|t |i iU|Lh Lu ?!?L?
|iU?L*L}) T@h@4i|iht @?_DU@T|hit |i h4 tTiUU ThLTi?t|) |L T@|i?| Mtihi_
T@|i?|tc |c @hi @ ?Lt) ?_U@|Lh Lu @ h4<t |iU?L*L}U@* L|T|c
| ''|n0|c ED2
| .E0|m-|c -|3c c D ' f
47Wklv gdwd vhw lv ghvfulehg lq Erxqg hw do +4<;5, dqg ghulydwlyh gdwd vhwv kdyh ehhq xvhg lq pdq|
dssolfdwlrqv lqfoxglqj Kdxvpdq/ Kdoo dqg Julolfkhv +4<;7,1
48Gxh wr d odujh khwhurjhqhlw| lq hvwlpdwhg frhflhqwv/ zh kdyh h{foxghg 6: upv iurp wkh %Pr0
wruv2Dlufudiw% lqgxvwu|1
A@M*i DG Ai +:# @?_ @|i?|t #@|@
r h4t ef.
*?+:# @|i?|t
i@? 2 D2D
5|_ #i HD .bfb
i|ii? 5|_ #i .bD ..b
`|? 5|_ #i f2H efb
i_@? 2S. S
?44 Heb f
@ 44 SSH2 bfS
hLTLh|L? Lu 3ihLt fDe
6ht| Lh_ih @|LULhhi*@|L? fb2D fHHe
ti ff2b ff.
Qrwhv wr Wdeoh= Wkh uvw rughu dxwrfruuhodwlrq hvwlpdwhg e| V|vwhp JPP wdnhv dffrxqw ri {hg hhfwv xvlqj wkh vwdfnhg olqhdu dqg glhuhqfhg JPP hvwlpdwru iru wkh phdq vwdwlrqdu| olqhdu g|qdplf huuru frpsrqhqwv prgho/ vhh Eoxqghoo dqg Erqg +4<<;,/ lqvwuxphqwv xvhg duh odjjhg ohyhov gdwhg w0m/11/w08 iru wkh glhuhqfhg htxdwlrq dqg odjjhg glhuhqfhv gdwhg w0m.4 iru wkh ohyhov htxdwlrq/ zkhuh m@5 iru wkh U)G vhulhv/ dqg m@6 iru wkh sdwhqw vhulhv1
5TTLti |@| t|LhU +:# ?it|4i?|t @hi UL4M?i_ |hL} @ LMM#L}*@t |iU?L*L}) |L ThL_Ui !?L*i_}i t|LU! W? |t U@ti ED MiUL4it
'| '-|q-|3q2 -|32q D ED
At 4L|@|it |i UL?_|L?@* 4i@? tTiUU@|L? ? @ 4*|T*U@|i _t|hM|i_ *@} 4L_i*
.E+|m%|c %|3c c %|3Rc D ' i TE%|qn%|3q2nn%|3RqRnD EDe
ihi+| ULhhitTL?_t |L | @?_ %| |L *?-| At t |i t|@?_@h_ 4L_i* ti_ ? |i
+:#T@|i?|t *|ih@|hiS
49Iru dq hydoxdwlrq ri wklv prgho vhh Eoxqghoo/ Julwk dqg Ydq Uhhqhq +4<<8,/ dqg Eoxqghoo/
Julwk dqg Zlqgphlmhu +4<<<,1
Wu |ihi t *4|i_ t|Lh) L? +:# ? |i _@|@ Lh |i +:# tihit @hi }*) Tihtt |i?| tL |@| |i tihit Lu *@}}i_ @*it Lu -|3 @hi UL**?i@hc |i @*|ih?@|i _)?@4U
tTiUU@|L? Lu |i *?i@h uii_M@U! 4L_i* U@? Mi @||h@U|i AL ThL_i @? iUL?L4U 4L|@|L? uLh |i w6 tTiUU@|L? Ec UL?t_ih h|?} |i hi*@|L?tT ED Mi|ii? T@|i?|t @?_ +:# @t
| '&
-q|n EB-q|3nD n0|c EDD
? U& t @ TLt|i UL?t|@?| @?_ ihi +:# ?it|4i?| _iThiU@|it i TL?i?|@**) @| h@|i B 5i||?} q @**Lt uLh @ _iUhi@t?} hi|h? |L |? TihL_ ?it|4i?| Ai _t|hM|i_ *@} |ih4 ? Mh@U!i|t hiThiti?|t |i ThLUitt M) U T@|i?|t @hi ThL_Ui_ uhL4 +:# ?T|t. W}?Lh?} @?) uii_M@U! uhL4 T@|i?|t |L +:# |i *L?}
h? t|i@_) t|@|i uLh h4 4@) Mi h||i?
' &B-qDc EDS
tL |@|q 4@) Mi ?|ihThi|i_ @t |i *L?} h? i*@t|U|) W?ih|?} EDD i @i
|'&-q|Dn EB|3n|c ED.
? U .E|m-|c |3c D ' f #iTi?_?} L? |i tih@* ULhhi*@|L? t|hU|hi Lu 0|c
|i ThLUitt uLh | 4@) _tT*@) tL4i @|LULhhi*@|L? ,^@|L? ED. t i^@*i?| |L
|i w6 4L_i* }i? ? E ? U |i @|Lhi}hitti ULiUi?| it|4@|it |i
_iThiU@|L? u@U|Lh EB @?_ |i *L?} h? i*@t|U|) t }i? M)q
+it*|t uLh |i w?i@h 6ii_M@U! L_i* @hi Thiti?|i_ ? A@M*i D2 Ai *ii*t it| 4@|L? ThLUi_hi |@| _Lit ?L| |@!i @UUL?| Lu i_ igiU|t hit*|t ? ULiUi?|t L? |i *@}}i_ _iTi?_i?| @h@M*i @?_ *?-:( Lu fHb @?_ fbf hitTiU|i*) W? UL?|h@t|c
|i |? }hLTt 4i@? tU@*?} it|4@|it @hi 4U *Lihc fe @?_ fe hitTiU|i*)
4:Iru h{dpsoh/ xvlqj d vshflf sdudphwhulvdwlrq ri wkh FHV surgxfwlrq ixqfwlrq zkhuh +814, eh0
frphv
Tlw@ n+Ulw. +4 , Ulw4. ===, # l=
Vhwwlqj wkh uhwxuqv wr vfdoh sdudphwhu # htxdo wr dqg xvlqj +815, uhvxowv lq +818,1
A@M*i D2G +it*|t uLh |i w?i@h 6ii_M@U! L_i*
E E2 E Ee ED
wii*t `|? 5 "#E "#E
@|3 fHb 31363 fe 31388 fHe 31364 fb2 3137: f2D 313;8
*?-:( fHbH 3139< fe2 313:8 fDfS 3147; ff 313;8 f. 31386
5@h}@?+s, H.fD +31336,
Qrwhv wr Wdeoh= Wkh prgho lqfoxghv |hdu gxpplhv1 Vwdqgdug huuruv duh vkrzq lq vpdoo irqw dqg doorz iru d jhqhudo fryduldqfh pdwul{ ryhu upv dqg wlph1 Ohyhov* lv wkh hvwlpdwru vroylqj vdpsoh prphqwv +714, / qrw wdnlqj dffrxqw ri lqglylgxdo hhfwv1 cZlwklq* lv zlwklq jurxs phdq vfdolqj/ vroylqj +715,1 SVP lv suh0vdpsoh phdq/ dqg TG lv txdvl0glhuhqfhg JPP1 Wkh suh0vdpsoh phdq ri Sdw xvhv wkh |hduv 4<980:411 Lqvwuxphqwv lq froxpq +7,/ TG+D,/ duh +4/+|32c c +/%|3c c %,/ lq froxpq +8,/ TG+E, wkh| duh +wlph gxpplhv/{+|3/{%|,11
Vdujdq lv wkh vwdqgdug2 whvw iru ryhulghqwli|lqj uhvwulfwlrqv
W? |t _)?@4U 4L_i* | i_ igiU|t i i TiU| |i *ii*t it|4@|it |L Mi M@ti_ T@h_tc @?_ |i |? }hLTt it|4@|it |L Mi _L?@h_ M@ti_c @t @t UL?h4i_ M) |i hit*|t Lu |i L?|i @h*L t4*@|L?t L?} ?i | |L |i hit*|t Lu |i it|4@|Lh |@| |*ti |i @@*@M*i Thit@4T*i ?uLh4@|L? L? T@|i?|tc i ?_ |@| uLh |i Thit@4T*i 4i@? it|4@|Lh |i it|4@|i_ ULiUi?|t *i ?Mi|ii? |i *ii*t @?_ |? it|4@|itc | |i ULiUi?| L? |i *@}}i_ _iTi?_i?| @h@M*i i^@* |L fHe @?_ |@| L? *?-:( i^@* |L fD ** |iti hit*|tc ? |ih4t Lu |i _hiU|L? Lu |i M@titc @hi ih) t4*@h |L |i L?|i @h*L hit*|t | Tihtt|i?|%| tihitc |
4' fbc @t _tT*@)i_ ? A@M*i e
Ai hit*|t Lu |i 5 it|4@|Lh @i @ ti?tM*i iUL?L4U ?|ihThi|@|L? Ai) 4T*) |@| |i _iThiU@|L? h@|i Lu T@|i?|t t @TThL 4@|i*) DI @?_ ?_U@|i |@| |i tLh| h? i*@t|U|) Lu T@|i?|t | hitTiU| |L +:# t @TThL 4@|i*) Eq ' ffHc ihi@t |i *L?} h? i*@t|U|)c }?Lh?} uii_M@U!c t @TThL 4@|i*) fD At 4T*it @ 4U t*Lih 4L?} @_t|4i?| ThLUitt |@? |@| 4T*i_ M) |i hit*|t
Lu @ 4*|T*U@|i _t|hM|i_ *@} 4L_i* |@| @i ThiLt*) Mii? hiTLh|i_ ? |i *|ih@|hi
Ai hit*|t Lu |i ^@t_gihi?Ui_ B it|4@|Lh @t _tT*@)i_ ? UL*4? EDc
@tt4?} |@| *?-:(t Thi_i|ih4?i_c tii4 T33*?} Ai ULiUi?| L? |i *@}}i_
_iTi?_i?| @h@M*i t ?i}@|icihi@t |i ULiUi?| L? *?-:(c @*|L} TLt|ic
t ?L| t}?U@?|*) _gihi?| uhL4 3ihL Ai ttTUL? |@| |iti hit*|t @hti _i |L
@ i@! ?t|h4i?|t ThLM*i4 @t ML| |i T@|i?|t @?_ |i *?-:( tihit @hi }*)
Tihtt|i?|c t UL?h4i_ M) |i hit*|t ? UL*4? EDc ihi |i {+|3 @?_ {%|
|i4ti*it @hi ti_ @t |i L?*) ?t|h4i?|t Ai it|4@|it Lu |i ULiUi?| L? *@}}i_ T@|i?|t @hi @*4Lt| _i?|U@*c @?_ |i ULiUi?| L? *?-:(t @}@? ih) t4@**c @*|L} *@h}ih |@? ? UL*4? Ee At t U*i@h*) @? ?_U@|L? |@| |i ?t|h4i?|t @hi Eih) i@!*) ULhhi*@|i_ | |i i?_L}i?Lt @h@M*it ? |i ^@t_gihi?Ui_ 4L_i*H
S 544@h) @?_ L?U*tL?t
`i @i tL? |@| uLh t|@?_@h_ UL?| T@?i* _@|@ 4L_i*t | ULhhi*@|i_ i_ igiU|t @?_ t|hU|*) i L}i?Lt hi}hittLhtc |i LttL? 4@ 44 *!i*LL_ it|4@|Lh uLh |i t*LTi T@h@4i|iht ? @ 4L_i* | ?__@* UL?t|@?|t t UL?tt|i?|c |i t@4i @t |i UL?_|L?@* 4@ 44 *!i*LL_ it|4@|Lhc @?_ i^@*i?| |L @ |? }hLTt 4i@? tU@*?} it|4@|Lh At it|4@|Lh t ?UL?tt|i?| i? hi}hittLht @hi Thi_i|ih4?i_
At T@Tih @t ThLTLti_ @ Thit@4T*i 4i@? it|4@|Lh uLh UL?| T@?i* _@|@ 4L_ i*t At it|4@|Lh i |i?_t |i ti| Lu T@?i* _@|@ it|4@|Lht |L ULih |i U@ti ihi |ihi t @__|L?@* t|LhU ?uLh4@|L? L? |i _iTi?_i?| @h@M*i At t @ UL44L? LUUhhi?Ui ? 4@?) _@|@ ti|t @?_ t i i4T*i_ ? |i T@|i?| UL?| @?_ +:# _@|@ uLh |i N5 ihi hiULh_i_ T@|i?| UL?|t i |i?_ M@U! Lih @ *L?} TihL_ MiuLhi +:#
4;Dowkrxjk wkh Vdujdq whvw lqglfdwhv wkdw wkh prgho lv plvvshflhg/ rwkhu prgho vshflfdwlrqv/
iru h{dpsoh lqfoxglqj ixuwkhu odjv ri sdwhqwv/ ru xvlqj glhuhqw prphqw frqglwlrqv wkdw doorz iru srvvleoh hqgrjhqhlw| ri oqU)G dqg2ru phdvxuhphqw huuru lq sdwhqwv gr qrw dowhu wkh uhvxowv1 Iru vxejurxsv ri upv/ wkh Vdujdq whvw grhv qrw uhmhfw lqvwuxphqw ydolglw|/ zkhuhdv frhflhqw hvwlpdwhv gr qrw fkdqjh1
i Ti?_|hi t @@*@M*i Ai Thit@4T*i it|4@|Lh _ii*LTi_ ? |i T@Tih t tL? |L Mi @? @||h@U|i @*|ih?@|i |L t|@?_@h_ it|4@|Lht i? |ihi @hi ULhhi*@|i_ ? __@* igiU|t @?_ Thi_i|ih4?i_ hi}hittLht W| t tL? |L Mi UL?tt|i?| uLh *@h}i Thit@4T*i t3i W? L?|i@h*L t4*@|L?t | t tL? |L TihuLh4 i** ? UL4T@htL? |L @ ^@t_gihi?Ui_ B it|4@|Lh itTiU@**) i? |i ?_ih*)?} ThLUittit @hi }*) Tihtt|i?|
Ai T@Tih @t _ii*LTi_ |i *?i@h uii_M@U! uh@4iLh! uLh |i U@ti Lu _)?@4U UL?| _@|@ 4L_i*t UL44L?*) ti_ _)?@4U tTiUU@|L? uLh UL?| _@|@ t |i 4*|T*U@|i _t|hM|i_ *@} 4L_i*c ihi *@}t Lu |i hi}hittLht i?|ih |i i TL?i?|@* 4i@? u?U|L? W? UL?|h@t|c uLh |i *?i@h uii_M@U! 4L_i*c |i *@}}i_ _iTi?_i?| UL?| @h@M*i i?|iht |i UL?_|L?@* 4i@? tTiUU@|L? *?i@h*) Ai Thit@4T*i it|4@|Lh t |i? i |i?_i_ |L ULih |i *?i@h uii_M@U! 4L_i* W? @ L?|i @h*L t|_) | t @*tL tL? |@|c uLh hi@tL?@M*i Thit@4T*i t3itc |i it|4@|Lh L|TihuLh4t t|@?_@h_ it|4@|Lht ? |ih4t Lu M@t @?_ hLL| 4i@? t^@hi_ ihhLh
Ai 4L_i* @?_ it|4@|Lht @i Mii? @TT*i_ |L @ i** !?L? _@|@ ti| Lu N5 T@|i?|t @?_ +:# i Ti?_|hi Ai ThLTLti_ Thit@4T*i 4i@? it|4@|Lh TihuLh4t i** ? UL4T@htL? |L @*|ih?@|it |@| ti |i ^@t_gihi?U?} @TThL@U At t i T*@?i_ M) @? i @4?@|L? Lu |i ThLTih|it Lu |i 4L_i* @?_ _@|@ ? |i *}| Lu |i hit*|t uhL4 |i L?|i@h*L t4*@|L? Ai it|4@|it Lu |i *?i@h uii_M@U! 4L_i* it|4@|i_ M) |i Thit@4T*i 4i@? it|4@|Lh ?_U@|i |@| |i @_t|4i?| ThLUitt t 4U t*Lih 4L?} |@? @t ThiLt*) Mii? uL?_
+iuihi?Uit
do ?c 5 @?_ 5U4_| EbbD ,Ui?| ,t|4@|L? Lu L_i*t uLh #)?@4U @?i* #@|@<c aLh?@* Lu ,UL?L4i|hUtc SHc D2H
d2o *tc c @?_ *3@_ EbH. 6ht|h_ih W?|i}ih V@*i_ |Lhi}hitti EW+E hLUitt<caLh?@* Lu A4i 5ihit ?@*)ttc Hc 2S2.D
do *3@_c c @?_ *t Ebbf W?|i}ihV@*i_ T| h_ih |Lhi}hitti
5|hU|hi EW+ET hLUitt<c aLh?@* Lu TT*i_ hLM@M*|)c 2.c e2e
deo hi**@?Lc c @?_ 5 L?_ Ebb 5L4i Ait|t Lu 5TiUU@|L? uLh @?i* #@|@G
L?|i @h*L ,_i?Ui @?_ @? TT*U@|L? |L ,4T*L)4i?| ,^@|L?t<c +ii Lu
,UL?L4U 5|_itc DHc 2..bH
dDo *?_i**c +c @?_ 5 L?_ EbbH W?|@* L?_|L?t @?_ L4i?| +it|hU|L?t ? #)?@4U @?i* #@|@ L_i*t<c aLh?@* Lu ,UL?L4i|hUtcH.c Dee
dSo *?_i**c +c + Bh|c @?_ a @? +ii?i? EbbD #)?@4U L?| #@|@ L_i*t Lu AiU?L*L}U@* W??L@|L?<cAi ,UL?L4U aLh?@*c fDc ee
d.o *?_i**c +c + Bh|c @?_ 6 `?_4iih Ebbb W?__@* ,giU|t @?_ #) ?@4Ut ? L?| #@|@ L_i*t<c W?t|||i uLh 6tU@* 5|_it `Lh!?} @Tih L `bb%c ||TG%%utLh}!%hiti@hU%Lh!?}T@Tiht%Tbb
dHo L?_c a 44?tc ~ Bh*Uitc O O@** @?_ a@gi EbH2 `L _Lit
+:# @?_ L T@|i?|tq ? +:#c @|i?|t @?_ hL_U||)c ~ Bh*Uit Ei_
U@}LG N?iht|) Lu U@}L hitt
dbo LU!i?L*|c N Ebbb i_ W+E LttL? +i}hittL? L_i*tG ?@*)3?} Oi|ihL}i?i|) @?_ 5ih@* #iTi?_i?Uit ? wL?}|_?@* L?| #@|@<c aLh?@* Lu ,UL?L4i|hUtc Hbc .H
dfo h@??@tc k Ebbe ,t|4@|L? @?_ Ait|?} ? W?|i}ih V@*i_ +E L_i*t<c N4iJ@ ,UL?L4U 5|_it @Tih L Dc #iT@h|4i?| Lu ,UL?L4Utc N?iht|) Lu N4iJ@c 6iMh@h)
do @4ihL?c c @?_ Ahi_ EbHS ,UL?L4i|hU L_i*t @ti_ L? L?| #@|@G L4T@htL?t @?_ TT*U@|L?t Lu 5L4i ,t|4@|Lht @?_ Ait|t<caLh?@* Lu TT*i_ ,UL?L4i|hUtc c 2bD
d2o @4Mih*@?c B EbHe @?i* #@|@< ?G Bh*Uitc ~c @?_ W?|h*}@|Lh Ei_tc
O@?_MLL! Lu ,UL?L4i|hUtc Lh| OL**@?_c 4t|ih_@4
do @4Mih*@?c B Ebb2 L44i?|G 5i^i?|@* L4i?| +it|hU|L?t ? @?i* #@|@<caLh?@* Lu t?itt : ,UL?L4U 5|@|t|Utc fc 2f2S
deo @4Mih*@?c B Ebb 6ii_M@U! ? @?i* #@|@ L_i*t<c 44iLc ,UL?L4i|hU
5LUi|) 544ih ii|?}c Lt|L?c a?i
dDo ?Uih@c Ebb. @|i?|tc +:#c @?_ AiU?L*L}U@* 5T**Liht @| |i 6h4
wii*G 5L4i ,_i?Ui uhL4 ,UL?L4i|hU L?| L_i*t uLh @?i* #@|@c aLh?@*
Lu TT*i_ ,UL?L4i|hUtc 2c 2SD2Hf
dSo hiTL?c @?_ , #}i| Ebb. ,t|4@|?} |i W??L@|L? 6?U|L? uhL4
@|i?| 4MihtG B L? L?| @?i* #@|@c aLh?@* Lu TT*i_ ,UL?L4i|
hUtc 2c 2e2S
d.o BLhihL c c L?uLh|c @?_ AhL}?L? EbHe ti_L @ 44 w!i*LL_ i|L_tG TT*U@|L?t |L LttL? L_i*t<c,UL?L4i|hU@c D2c .f.2f
dHo O@**c c ~ Bh*Uitc @?_ a O@t4@? EbHS @|i?|t @?_ + @?_ #G Wt Aihi @ w@}q<cW?|ih?@|L?@* ,UL?L4U +iic 2.c 2SD2H
dbo O@?ti?c w EbH2 w@h}i 5@4T*i hLTih|it Lu Bi?ih@*3i_ i|L_ Lu L4i?|t ,t|4@|Lht<c ,UL?L4i|hU@c Dfc f2bfDe
d2fo O@t4@?c ac O@**c @?_ ~ Bh*Uit EbHe ,UL?L4i|hU L_i*t uLh L?| #@|@ @?_ @? TT*U@|L? |L |i @|i?|t+:# +i*@|L?tT< ,UL?L4i|hU@c D2c bfbbH
d2o OL*|3,@!?c #c ` ii)c @?_ O +Lti? EbHH ,t|4@|?} ViU|Lh |Lhi}hit tL?t | @?i* #@|@<c ,UL?L4i|hU@c DSc .bD
d22o a?B@?c #c @?_ w v@? Ebb Ai W?|i}ihV@*i_ |Lhi}hitti EW+ET
L_i*<aLh?@* Lu A4i 5ihit ?@*)ttc 2c 2be2
d2o w@?U@t|ihc A Ebb.c h|L}L?@* @h@4i|iht @?_ @?i* #@|@c 44iLc hL? N?iht|)
d2eo Uki?3ic , EbHH 5L4i + L_i*t uLh #iTi?_i?| 5i^i?Uit Lu LttL? L?|t<c _@?Uit ? TT*i_ hLM@M*|)c 2fc H22HD
d2Do U**@}c c @?_ i*_ihc a EbHbc Bi?ih@*3i_ w?i@h L_i*tc @T4@?
@?_ O@**c L?L}h@Tt L? 5|@|t|Ut @?_ TT*i_ hLM@M*|) .
d2So L?|@*Lc aB Ebb. B ,t|4@|L? Lu L?|@?i*#@|@ L_i*t | 6 i_ ,giU|t @?_ hi_i|ih4?i_ W?t|h4i?|t<c aLh?@* Lu t?itt @?_ ,UL ?L4U 5|@|t|Utc Dc H2Hb
d2.o U!i**c 5a EbH @tit ? #)?@4U L_i*t | 6 i_ ,giU|t<c,UL?L4i|hU@c bc DbH2
d2Ho @||c kc +LMtL? @?_ a AL?ti?_ EbH. Ai 53i #t|hM|L? Lu W??L @|?} 6h4t ? |i NkG beDH<c aLh?@* Lu W?_t|h@* ,UL?L4Utc Dc 2b.S
d2bo +L???}c Bc @?_ + a?} Ebb2 ,t|4@|L? Lu @ 6ht| h_ih |Lhi}hitti hLUitt | LttL? @h}?@*t uLh L?| #@|@<c ?G 6@h4ihc wc 6h@?Utc + B*Uht|c @?_ B A|3 Ei_tc _@?Uit ? BwW @?_ 5|@|t|U@* L_i**?}<c
wiU|hi L|it ? 5|@|t|Utc .Hc HHbec 5Th?}ihVih*@}c ih*?
dfo 5|@}ihc # @?_ aO 5|LU! Ebb.c W?t|h4i?|@* V@h@M*it +i}hittL? | `i@! W?t|h4i?|tc ,UL?L4i|hU@c SDc DD.DHS
do `?_4iihc 6 E2fffc L4i?| L?_|L?t uLh 6 i_ ,giU|t L?| #@|@ L_i*t | ,?_L}i?Lt +i}hittLht<c ,UL?L4Ut wi||ihtSHc 22e
d2o `?!i*4@??c + Ebb.c ,UL?L4i|hU ?@*)tt Lu L?| #@|@c 2?_ ,_|L?c
5Th?}ihc Oi_i*Mih}
do `LL*_h_}ic a Ebb *|T*U@|i @?i* #@|@ L_i*t |L| |i 5|hU| , L}i?i|) tt4T|L?<c WA `Lh!?} @Tih L D.e
deo `LL*_h_}ic a Ebb. *|T*U@|i @?i* #@|@ L_i*t |L| |i 5|hU| , L}i?i|) tt4T|L?<c,UL?L4i|hU AiLh)c c SS.S.H