abc
Global Research
We temporarily put aside our own ratings and valuations and employ an unbiased tool that
tries to look at ‘dislocation’ for 55 major Turkish stocks. The principle of the barometer is
simple: we compare share price performance of stocks over the past 12 months, six
months and one month and contrast that with consensus EPS revisions over the same
periods. The higher the dislocation in percentage terms, the more stocks have been
oversold, theoretically. We write ‘theoretically’ as there may well be good reasons for
some stocks to have been heavily sold, not least the traditional lag of sell-side estimates vs
the market in a downswing.
On this approach and again from a theoretical standpoint, the April update revealed that the
market’s focus has not intensified on specific names and Akbank and Dogan Holding stand out
as the major overbought stocks. Oversold stocks were diversified again, yet Turkish Airlines
and Aygaz once again topped the list with the new addition of Petrol Ofisi.
3 April 2009
Erol Hullu* AnalystHSBC Yatırım Menkul Değerler A.Ş. +90 212 376 4616
View HSBC Global Research at: http://www.research.hsbc.com *Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/qualified pursuant to NYSE and/or NASD regulations
Issuer of report: HSBC Yatırım Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
Disclaimer &
Disclosures
This report must be read
with the disclosures and
the analyst certifications in
the Disclosure appendix,
and with the Disclaimer,
which forms part of it
‘Dislocation barometer’ for
Turkish stocks
April update to look at beaten-up stocks and those that
have held up relatively well
The barometer measures the spread between share price
performance and consensus revisions on 2009 net income
estimates for 12-month, six-month and one-month periods,
theoretically pointing to oversold stocks
Turkish Airlines, Aygaz and Petrol Ofisi are most oversold
Akbank and Dogan Holding are most overbought
CEMEA
Equity – Turkey
Flashnote
Most dislocated Mid-to-Large Cap* Turkish stocks (descending order)
_____________12M ______________ _______________6M ______________ _____________ 1M ______________ ____________________________________________ Oversold _____________________________________________
Turkish Airlines Aygaz Petrol Ofisi
Aygaz Turkish Airlines Selcuk Ecza
Enka Insaat Petrol Ofisi Anadolu Efes
Eregli Petkim Turk Telekom
Asya Bank Albaraka Turk Aygaz
___________________________________________ Overbought ____________________________________________ Dogan Holding Dogan Holding Eczacibasi Ilac
Akbank Selcuk Ecza Dogan Holding
Petkim Turkcell Tekfen Holding
Tav Akbank Tofas
Aksigorta Eregli Albaraka Turk
‘D islo cat io n b a ro m e te r’ f o r T u rki sh st o cks E q u it y – T u rkey 3 A p ril 20 09 2
ab
c
12-month dislocation barometer for Mid-to-Large Cap* Turkish stocks
DOHOL
AKBNK
PET KM
TAVHL
AKGRT
ISCTR
ARCLK
BIMAS
SAHOL
T OASO
VAKBN
AEFES
CCOLA
T CELL
YKBNK
SELEC
GARAN
ECILC
TUPRS
PTOFS
HALKB
KCHOL
SISE
FROTO
TEBNK
ASYAB
EREGL
ENKAI
AYGAZ
T HYAO
-70.0% -60.0% -50.0% -40.0% -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% -80.0% -60.0% -40.0% -20.0% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0%2009 net incom e revision
S h ar e pri ce pe rf orm a nc e
‘D islo cat io n b a ro m e te r’ f o r T u rki sh st o cks E q u it y – T u rkey 3 A p ril 20 09 3
ab
c
Six-month dislocation barometer for Mid-to-Large Cap* Turkish stocks
DOHOL
SELEC
TCELL
AKBNK
EREGL
ISCT R
T KFEN
BIMAS
GARAN
VAKBN
T UPRS
ARCLK
T OASO
CCOLA
T EBNK
AEFES
FROT O
AKGRT
SAHOL
T AVHL
HALKB
ASYAB
YKBNK
ENKAI
SISE
KCHOL
ALBRK
PETKM
PTOFS
THYAO
AYGAZ
-70.0% -60.0% -50.0% -40.0% -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% -80.0% -60.0% -40.0% -20.0% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0%2009 net incom e revision
S h a re pri ce pe rf orm a nc e
‘D islo cat io n b a ro m e te r’ f o r T u rki sh st o cks E q u it y – T u rkey 3 A p ril 20 09 4
ab
c
One-month dislocation barometer for Mid-to-Large Cap* Turkish sStocks
ECILC
T KFEN
T OASO
ALBRK
SAHOL
T UPRS
VAKBN
AKBNK
ARCLK
KCHOL
GARAN
EREGL
T HYAO
CCOLA
ISCT R
TEBNK
ASYAB
ENKAI
PET KM
TCELL
YKBNK T AVHL
BIMAS SISE
HALKB
AKGRT
FROT O
AYGAZ
T TKOM
AEFES
SELEC
PT OFS
-10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% -70.0% -60.0% -50.0% -40.0% -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0%2009 net income revision
S h ar e pri ce pe rf orm a n c e
5 ‘Dislocation barometer’ for Turkish stocks
Equity – Turkey 3 April 2009
ab
c
12 months - dislocation data set for the sample universe (including small caps) - TRYm
HSBC _____2009 Net income revision______ ____ Share price performance _____
Name RIC rating Then Now change Then Now change Dislocation Rank
AK ENERJI AKENR.IS N (V) 8.2 40.0 388.8% 8.6 6.1 -29.1% 418% 1
SINPAS REIC SNGYO.IS OW (V) 40.4 104.8 159.4% 4.5 1.8 -59.3% 219% 2
TURK HAVA YOLLARI THYAO.IS N/R 300.4 509.6 69.6% 6.3 6.6 4.8% 65% 3
ANADOLU SIGORTA ANSGR.IS OW (V) 65.5 87.0 32.8% 1.0 0.9 -9.9% 43% 4
AYGAZ AYGAZ.IS OW (V) 207.5 197.7 -4.7% 3.8 2.0 -46.3% 42% 5
ANADOLU HAYAT ANHYT.IS OW (V) 51.2 49.6 -3.1% 2.2 1.3 -40.4% 37% 6
ENKA INSAAT ENKAI.IS OW (V) 988.7 786.0 -20.5% 12.3 5.9 -52.0% 32% 7
TURCAS TRCAS.IS UW (V) 143.7 97.6 -32.1% 6.6 2.6 -61.0% 29% 8
EREGLI DEMIR CELIK EREGL.IS UW (V) 975.0 619.1 -36.5% 6.9 3.1 -54.6% 18% 9
ASYA BANK ASYAB.IS UW (V) 384.9 202.9 -47.3% 3.1 1.1 -64.5% 17% 10
TEB TEBNK.IS N (V) 267.3 173.7 -35.0% 1.4 0.7 -52.2% 17% 11
FORD OTOMOTIV FROTO.IS N (V) 613.0 367.1 -40.1% 10.4 4.5 -56.3% 16% 12
SISECAM SISE.IS N (V) 307.8 233.8 -24.0% 1.7 1.0 -39.4% 15% 13
KOC HOLDING KCHOL.IS N (V) 1,372.3 1,200.5 -12.5% 3.2 2.3 -27.6% 15% 14
SEKERBANK SKBNK.IS N/R 228.1 117.7 -48.4% 2.5 0.9 -63.0% 15% 15
HALK BANK HALKB.IS OW (V) 1,636.8 1,032.2 -36.9% 7.4 3.6 -50.8% 14% 16
PETROL OFISI PTOFS.IS UW (V) 355.9 327.0 -8.1% 4.9 3.8 -21.7% 14% 17
ANADOLU CAM ANACM.IS OW (V) 88.3 50.0 -43.3% 2.4 1.1 -54.4% 11% 18
IS REIT ISGYO.IS N (V) 44.9 46.5 3.6% 1.0 1.0 -5.9% 9% 19
TUPRAS TUPRS.IS OW (V) 1,124.5 734.1 -34.7% 29.5 16.7 -43.4% 9% 20
ECZACIBASI ILAC ECILC.IS N/R 47.0 43.1 -8.3% 1.2 1.0 -16.5% 8% 21
CIMSA CIMSA.IS N (V) 124.8 70.6 -43.4% 6.7 3.3 -49.8% 6% 22
GARANTI BANK GARAN.IS N (V) 2,773.3 2,014.5 -27.4% 3.5 2.4 -33.3% 6% 23
SELCUK ECZA SELEC.IS N/R 173.6 158.5 -8.7% 2.0 1.7 -14.3% 6% 24
YAPI VE KREDI BANKASI YKBNK.IS UW (V) 1,368.7 1,111.7 -18.8% 2.3 1.7 -24.0% 5% 25
TURKCELL TCELL.IS N (V) 2,082.4 1,286.9 -38.2% 20.9 12.3 -41.2% 3% 26
COCA COLA ICECEK CCOLA.IS N (V) 245.2 185.5 -24.4% 10.6 7.9 -25.9% 2% 27
ANADOLU EFES AEFES.IS N (V) 483.0 418.5 -13.3% 11.9 10.3 -13.4% 0% 28
AKCANSA AKCNS.IS OW (V) 251.1 118.5 -52.8% 5.4 2.5 -52.9% 0% 29
VAKIFBANK VAKBN.IS OW (V) 1,322.4 675.6 -48.9% 2.4 1.3 -48.1% -1% 30
TOFAS TOASO.IS OW (V) 414.5 134.5 -67.5% 4.3 1.5 -66.0% -1% 31
TRAKYA CAM TRKCM.IS N (V) 191.3 111.2 -41.9% 1.5 0.9 -39.3% -3% 32
KARDEMIR KRDMD.IS N/R 144.5 66.4 -54.0% 1.0 0.5 -50.5% -4% 33
SABANCI HOLDING SAHOL.IS OW (V) 1,423.9 916.3 -35.7% 4.2 2.9 -31.3% -4% 34
BIM BIMAS.IS OW (V) 161.9 155.9 -3.7% 35.0 35.3 0.7% -4% 35
ARCELIK ARCLK.IS N (V) 415.7 123.4 -70.3% 5.3 1.8 -65.5% -5% 36
ADANA ADANA.IS N (V) 128.6 61.1 -52.5% 6.1 3.5 -43.5% -9% 37
IS BANK ISCTR.IS N (V) 2,894.3 1,813.4 -37.3% 4.9 3.7 -24.3% -13% 38
AKSIGORTA AKGRT.IS OW (V) 151.9 61.3 -59.6% 4.9 2.6 -46.5% -13% 39
VESTEL BEYAZ VESBE.IS N/R 86.6 32.5 -62.5% 2.2 1.1 -48.8% -14% 40
TAV HAVALIMANLARI TAVHL.IS N (V) 181.1 68.6 -62.1% 5.6 2.9 -47.9% -14% 41
PETKIM PETKM.IS UW (V) 128.3 61.9 -51.8% 6.5 4.1 -37.2% -15% 42
HURRIYET HURGZ.IS UW (V) 148.2 22.2 -85.0% 1.9 0.6 -67.9% -17% 43
AKBANK AKBNK.IS UW (V) 3,022.0 2,042.1 -32.4% 5.6 4.9 -12.9% -20% 44
DOGAN HOLDING DOHOL.IS N (V) 485.8 110.6 -77.2% 0.8 0.6 -32.9% -44% 45
ALARKO HOLDING ALARK.IS N/R 95.1 16.9 -82.2% 2.7 1.8 -34.3% -48% 46
DOGUS OTO DOAS.IS N (V) 105.3 -34.1 -132.4% 5.2 2.0 -61.6% -71% 47
DOGAN YAYIN HOLDING DYHOL.IS UW (V) 137.5 -70.8 -151.5% 2.3 0.5 -76.3% -75% 48 * UW (V): Underweight (V), OW (V): Overweight (V), N (V): Neutral (V), UW: Underweight, OW: Overweight, N: Neutral, N/R: Not Rated
6
‘Dislocation barometer’ for Turkish stocks Equity – Turkey
3 April 2009
ab
c
6 months - Dislocation data set for the sample universe (including small caps) - TRYm
HSBC _____2009 Net income revision______ ____ Share price performance _____
Name RIC rating Then Now change Then Now change Dislocation Rank
SINPAS REIC SNGYO.IS OW (V) 51.3 104.8 104.3% 4.5 1.8 -59.3% 164% 1
AYGAZ AYGAZ.IS OW (V) 103.4 197.7 91.2% 3.2 2.0 -36.5% 128% 2
TURK HAVA YOLLARI THYAO.IS N/R 265.0 509.6 92.3% 6.5 6.6 0.8% 92% 3
ANADOLU SIGORTA ANSGR.IS OW (V) 66.4 87.0 31.1% 1.3 0.9 -28.3% 59% 4
ANADOLU HAYAT ANHYT.IS OW (V) 51.5 49.6 -3.6% 3.1 1.3 -57.4% 54% 5
PETROL OFISI PTOFS.IS UW (V) 301.6 327.0 8.4% 6.2 3.8 -38.4% 47% 6
PETKIM PETKM.IS UW (V) 54.0 61.9 14.5% 5.5 4.1 -25.1% 40% 7
SEKERBANK SKBNK.IS N/R 150.1 117.7 -21.6% 2.3 0.9 -58.6% 37% 8
ALBARAKA TURK ALBRK.IS N/R 114.5 125.7 9.8% 3.5 2.6 -24.9% 35% 9
IS REIT ISGYO.IS N (V) 39.2 46.5 18.6% 1.1 1.0 -15.0% 34% 10
KOC HOLDING KCHOL.IS N (V) 1,367.8 1,200.5 -12.2% 4.1 2.3 -43.5% 31% 11
TURCAS TRCAS.IS UW (V) 125.8 97.6 -22.4% 5.5 2.6 -53.1% 31% 12
SISECAM SISE.IS N (V) 258.1 233.8 -9.4% 1.6 1.0 -37.9% 28% 13
ENKA INSAAT ENKAI.IS OW (V) 969.5 786.0 -18.9% 10.6 5.9 -44.3% 25% 14
YAPI VE KREDI BANKASI YKBNK.IS UW (V) 1,281.3 1,111.7 -13.2% 2.7 1.7 -35.7% 22% 15
VESTEL BEYAZ VESBE.IS N/R 67.2 32.5 -51.7% 3.8 1.1 -71.1% 19% 16
ASYA BANK ASYAB.IS UW (V) 331.1 202.9 -38.7% 2.6 1.1 -57.3% 19% 17
TRAKYA CAM TRKCM.IS N (V) 154.0 111.2 -27.8% 1.6 0.9 -43.8% 16% 18
HALK BANK HALKB.IS OW (V) 1,450.0 1,032.2 -28.8% 6.6 3.6 -44.8% 16% 19
TAV HAVALIMANLARI TAVHL.IS N (V) 101.8 68.6 -32.6% 5.6 2.9 -47.9% 15% 20
KARDEMIR KRDMD.IS N/R 114.3 66.4 -41.9% 1.1 0.5 -54.5% 13% 21
SABANCI HOLDING SAHOL.IS OW (V) 1,316.5 916.3 -30.4% 5.0 2.9 -42.8% 12% 22
AKSIGORTA AKGRT.IS OW (V) 101.0 61.3 -39.3% 5.1 2.6 -49.0% 10% 23
FORD OTOMOTIV FROTO.IS N (V) 623.6 367.1 -41.1% 9.2 4.5 -50.7% 10% 24
ANADOLU EFES AEFES.IS N (V) 465.4 418.5 -10.1% 12.8 10.3 -19.5% 9% 25
TEB TEBNK.IS N (V) 329.8 173.7 -47.3% 1.5 0.7 -56.7% 9% 26
COCA COLA ICECEK CCOLA.IS N (V) 227.2 185.5 -18.4% 10.8 7.9 -27.3% 9% 27
TOFAS TOASO.IS OW (V) 305.4 134.5 -55.9% 4.0 1.5 -63.5% 8% 28
ARCELIK ARCLK.IS N (V) 262.5 123.4 -53.0% 4.6 1.8 -60.4% 7% 29
CIMSA CIMSA.IS N (V) 109.1 70.6 -35.3% 5.8 3.3 -41.9% 7% 30
TUPRAS TUPRS.IS OW (V) 1,121.2 734.1 -34.5% 28.0 16.7 -40.4% 6% 31
VAKIFBANK VAKBN.IS OW (V) 1,097.7 675.6 -38.5% 2.3 1.3 -44.2% 6% 32
GARANTI BANK GARAN.IS N (V) 2,835.8 2,014.5 -29.0% 3.6 2.4 -33.7% 5% 33
BIM BIMAS.IS OW (V) 192.0 155.9 -18.8% 46.0 35.3 -23.4% 5% 34
AKCANSA AKCNS.IS OW (V) 213.4 118.5 -44.5% 4.7 2.5 -45.9% 1% 35
TEKFEN HOLDING TKFEN.IS OW (V) 319.6 111.9 -65.0% 8.2 2.9 -64.9% 0% 36
ANADOLU CAM ANACM.IS OW (V) 95.3 50.0 -47.5% 2.1 1.1 -47.4% 0% 37
IS BANK ISCTR.IS N (V) 2,770.0 1,813.4 -34.5% 5.7 3.7 -34.4% 0% 38
EREGLI DEMIR CELIK EREGL.IS UW (V) 1,698.6 619.1 -63.6% 8.0 3.1 -61.0% -3% 39
AKBANK AKBNK.IS UW (V) 2,886.7 2,042.1 -29.3% 6.2 4.9 -20.7% -9% 40
TURKCELL TCELL.IS N (V) 2,003.3 1,286.9 -35.8% 16.6 12.3 -25.7% -10% 41
SELCUK ECZA SELEC.IS N/R 173.0 158.5 -8.4% 1.7 1.7 1.8% -10% 42
HURRIYET HURGZ.IS UW (V) 118.3 22.2 -81.3% 1.7 0.6 -64.3% -17% 43
ADANA ADANA.IS N (V) 100.4 61.1 -39.2% 4.4 3.5 -21.5% -18% 44
DOGAN HOLDING DOHOL.IS N (V) 377.3 110.6 -70.7% 1.1 0.6 -48.1% -23% 45
GLOBAL YATIRIM GLYHO.IS N/R 61.9 0.0 -100.0% 0.9 0.3 -70.3% -30% 46
ALARKO HOLDING ALARK.IS N/R 73.6 16.9 -77.1% 2.6 1.8 -31.8% -45% 47
DOGUS OTO DOAS.IS N (V) 76.0 -34.1 -144.9% 3.9 2.0 -49.7% -95% 48
DOGAN YAYIN HOLDING DYHOL.IS UW (V) 90.1 -70.8 -178.6% 2.0 0.5 -72.9% -106% 49 * UW (V): Underweight (V), OW (V): Overweight (V), N (V): Neutral (V), UW: Underweight, OW: Overweight, N: Neutral, N/R: Not Rated
7 ‘Dislocation barometer’ for Turkish stocks
Equity – Turkey 3 April 2009
ab
c
1 month - Dislocation data set for the sample universe (including small caps) - TRYm
HSBC _____2009 Net income revision______ _____ Share price performance _____
Name RIC rating Then Now change Then Now change Dislocation Rank
DOGUS OTO DOAS.IS N (V) -0.9 -34.1 3651.6% 1.7 2.0 17.2% 3634% 1
KARDEMIR KRDMD.IS N/R 29.9 66.4 122.4% 0.5 0.5 2.0% 120% 2
DOGAN YAYIN HOLDING DYHOL.IS UW (V) -48.9 -70.8 45.0% 0.5 0.5 20.0% 25% 3
ANADOLU SIGORTA ANSGR.IS OW (V) 80.6 87.0 7.9% 0.9 0.9 0.0% 8% 4
PETROL OFISI PTOFS.IS UW (V) 312.2 327.0 4.8% 3.7 3.8 3.2% 2% 5
AK ENERJI AKENR.IS N (V) 41.0 40.0 -2.4% 6.3 6.1 -3.2% 1% 6
SELCUK ECZA SELEC.IS N/R 163.0 158.5 -2.8% 1.7 1.7 -0.6% -2% 7
ANADOLU EFES AEFES.IS N (V) 450.1 418.5 -7.0% 10.8 10.3 -4.6% -2% 8
IS REIT ISGYO.IS N (V) 46.6 46.5 -0.4% 0.9 1.0 3.2% -4% 9
TURK TELEKOM TTKOM.IS N (V) 2,262.2 2,124.4 -6.1% 3.9 3.9 -1.0% -5% 10
AYGAZ AYGAZ.IS OW (V) 204.9 197.7 -3.5% 2.0 2.0 2.0% -6% 11
FORD OTOMOTIV FROTO.IS N (V) 359.8 367.1 2.0% 4.2 4.5 8.6% -7% 12
AKSIGORTA AKGRT.IS OW (V) 60.6 61.3 1.1% 2.4 2.6 9.7% -9% 13
GUBRETAS GUBRF.IS N (V) 133.4 121.0 -9.3% 5.2 5.2 0.0% -9% 14
HALK BANK HALKB.IS OW (V) 1,117.8 1,032.2 -7.7% 3.6 3.6 1.7% -9% 15
SEKERBANK SKBNK.IS N/R 121.4 117.7 -3.1% 0.9 0.9 6.8% -10% 16
SISECAM SISE.IS N (V) 245.4 233.8 -4.7% 1.0 1.0 5.3% -10% 17
BIM BIMAS.IS OW (V) 165.5 155.9 -5.8% 33.5 35.3 5.2% -11% 18
TAV HAVALIMANLARI TAVHL.IS N (V) 73.0 68.6 -6.0% 2.8 2.9 5.1% -11% 19
YAPI VE KREDI BANKASI YKBNK.IS UW (V) 1,205.6 1,111.7 -7.8% 1.7 1.7 3.6% -11% 20
TURKCELL TCELL.IS N (V) 1,471.4 1,286.9 -12.5% 12.3 12.3 -0.2% -12% 21
PETKIM PETKM.IS UW (V) 70.3 61.9 -12.0% 4.0 4.1 2.0% -14% 22
TURCAS TRCAS.IS UW (V) 107.5 97.6 -9.2% 2.5 2.6 4.9% -14% 23
ENKA INSAAT ENKAI.IS OW (V) 977.8 786.0 -19.6% 6.2 5.9 -4.8% -15% 24
ASYA BANK ASYAB.IS UW (V) 210.9 202.9 -3.8% 1.0 1.1 11.0% -15% 25
TEB TEBNK.IS N (V) 180.3 173.7 -3.6% 0.6 0.7 14.0% -18% 26
IS BANK ISCTR.IS N (V) 1,886.4 1,813.4 -3.9% 3.3 3.7 14.0% -18% 27
COCA COLA ICECEK CCOLA.IS N (V) 198.6 185.5 -6.6% 7.1 7.9 11.3% -18% 28
TURK HAVA YOLLARI THYAO.IS N/R 515.9 509.6 -1.2% 5.6 6.6 17.0% -18% 29
EREGLI DEMIR CELIK EREGL.IS UW (V) 860.2 619.1 -28.0% 3.4 3.1 -9.3% -19% 30 GARANTI BANK GARAN.IS N (V) 2,132.4 2,014.5 -5.5% 2.1 2.4 14.0% -20% 31
ANADOLU HAYAT ANHYT.IS OW (V) 57.3 49.6 -13.4% 1.2 1.3 7.3% -21% 32
ANADOLU CAM ANACM.IS OW (V) 54.0 50.0 -7.4% 1.0 1.1 13.4% -21% 33
AKCANSA AKCNS.IS OW (V) 115.7 118.5 2.4% 2.0 2.5 23.5% -21% 34
KOC HOLDING KCHOL.IS N (V) 1,352.9 1,200.5 -11.3% 2.1 2.3 10.4% -22% 35
TRAKYA CAM TRKCM.IS N (V) 123.4 111.2 -9.8% 0.8 0.9 12.3% -22% 36
ARCELIK ARCLK.IS N (V) 150.0 123.4 -17.7% 1.7 1.8 5.2% -23% 37 ADANA ADANA.IS N (V) 69.9 61.1 -12.6% 3.1 3.5 10.9% -24% 38 AKBANK AKBNK.IS UW (V) 2,040.2 2,042.1 0.1% 3.9 4.9 24.5% -24% 39 VAKIFBANK VAKBN.IS OW (V) 732.5 675.6 -7.8% 1.1 1.3 16.7% -24% 40 BAGFAS BAGFS.IS OW (V) 129.7 111.0 -14.4% 62.5 69.0 10.4% -25% 41 TUPRAS TUPRS.IS OW (V) 898.8 734.1 -18.3% 15.5 16.7 7.7% -26% 42
SABANCI HOLDING SAHOL.IS OW (V) 1,052.8 916.3 -13.0% 2.5 2.9 16.3% -29% 43
CIMSA CIMSA.IS N (V) 90.9 70.6 -22.3% 2.9 3.3 13.6% -36% 44
SINPAS REIC SNGYO.IS OW (V) 110.8 104.8 -5.4% 1.4 1.8 32.6% -38% 45
ALBARAKA TURK ALBRK.IS N/R 131.5 125.7 -4.4% 1.9 2.6 34.7% -39% 46
TOFAS TOASO.IS OW (V) 169.6 134.5 -20.7% 1.2 1.5 18.7% -39% 47
VESTEL BEYAZ VESBE.IS N/R 53.0 32.5 -38.7% 1.1 1.1 1.8% -41% 48
TAT KONSERVE TATKS.IS N (V) 13.9 6.1 -55.8% 1.0 1.2 16.2% -72% 49
TEKFEN HOLDING TKFEN.IS OW (V) 312.1 111.9 -64.1% 2.6 2.9 9.9% -74% 50
DOGAN HOLDING DOHOL.IS N (V) 376.5 110.6 -70.6% 0.5 0.6 7.8% -78% 51
ECZACIBASI ILAC ECILC.IS N/R 99.4 43.1 -56.6% 0.8 1.0 24.7% -81% 52
ALARKO HOLDING ALARK.IS N/R 80.0 16.9 -78.9% 1.7 1.8 7.1% -86% 53
HURRIYET HURGZ.IS UW (V) 66.7 22.2 -66.8% 0.5 0.6 30.4% -97% 54
GLOBAL YATIRIM GLYHO.IS N/R -5.0 0.0 -100.0% 0.2 0.3 17.4% -117% 55
* UW (V): Underweight (V), OW (V): Overweight (V), N (V): Neutral (V), UW: Underweight, OW: Overweight, N: Neutral, N/R: Not Rated Source: Thomson Financial Datastream, HSBC estimates
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9 ‘Dislocation barometer’ for Turkish stocks
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Disclosure appendix
Analyst certification
The following analyst(s), who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject
security(ies) or issuer(s) and any other views or forecasts expressed herein accurately reflect their personal view(s) and that no
part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or views contained
in this research report: Erol Hullu
Important disclosures
Stock ratings and basis for financial analysis
HSBC believes that investors utilise various disciplines and investment horizons when making investment decisions, which
depend largely on individual circumstances such as the investor's existing holdings, risk tolerance and other considerations.
Given these differences, HSBC has two principal aims in its equity research: 1) to identify long-term investment opportunities
based on particular themes or ideas that may affect the future earnings or cash flows of companies on a 12 month time horizon;
and 2) from time to time to identify short-term investment opportunities that are derived from fundamental, quantitative,
technical or event-driven techniques on a 0-3 month time horizon and which may differ from our long-term investment rating.
HSBC has assigned ratings for its long-term investment opportunities as described below.
This report addresses only the long-term investment opportunities of the companies referred to in the report. As and when
HSBC publishes a short-term trading idea the stocks to which these relate are identified on the website at
www.hsbcnet.com/research. Details of these short-term investment opportunities can be found under the Reports section of this
website.
HSBC believes an investor's decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances such as the investor's
existing holdings and other considerations. Different securities firms use a variety of ratings terms as well as different rating
systems to describe their recommendations. Investors should carefully read the definitions of the ratings used in each research
report. In addition, because research reports contain more complete information concerning the analysts' views, investors
should carefully read the entire research report and should not infer its contents from the rating. In any case, ratings should not
be used or relied on in isolation as investment advice.
Rating definitions for long-term investment opportunities
Stock ratings
HSBC assigns ratings to its stocks in this sector on the following basis:
For each stock we set a required rate of return calculated from the risk free rate for that stock's domestic, or as appropriate,
regional market and the relevant equity risk premium established by our strategy team. The price target for a stock represents
the value the analyst expects the stock to reach over our performance horizon. The performance horizon is 12 months. For a
stock to be classified as Overweight, the implied return must exceed the required return by at least 5 percentage points over the
next 12 months (or 10 percentage points for a stock classified as Volatile*). For a stock to be classified as Underweight, the
stock must be expected to underperform its required return by at least 5 percentage points over the next 12 months (or 10
percentage points for a stock classified as Volatile*). Stocks between these bands are classified as Neutral.
Our ratings are re-calibrated against these bands at the time of any 'material change' (initiation of coverage, change of volatility
status or change in price target). Notwithstanding this, and although ratings are subject to ongoing management review,
expected returns will be permitted to move outside the bands as a result of normal share price fluctuations without necessarily
triggering a rating change.
*A stock will be classified as volatile if its historical volatility has exceeded 40%, if the stock has been listed for less than 12
months (unless it is in an industry or sector where volatility is low) or if the analyst expects significant volatility. However,
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stocks which we do not consider volatile may in fact also behave in such a way. Historical volatility is defined as the past
month's average of the daily 365-day moving average volatilities. In order to avoid misleadingly frequent changes in rating,
however, volatility has to move 2.5 percentage points past the 40% benchmark in either direction for a stock's status to change.
Prior to this, from 7 June 2005 HSBC applied a ratings structure which ranked the stocks according to their notional target
price vs current market price and then categorised (approximately) the top 40% as Overweight, the next 40% as Neutral and
the last 20% as Underweight. The performance horizon is 2 years. The notional target price was defined as the mid-point of the
analysts' valuation for a stock.
From 15 November 2004 to 7 June 2005, HSBC carried no ratings and concentrated on long-term thematic reports which
identified themes and trends in industries, but did not make a conclusion as to the investment action that potential investors
should take.
Prior to 15 November 2004, HSBC's ratings system was based upon a two-stage recommendation structure: a combination of
the analysts' view on the stock relative to its sector and the sector call relative to the market, together giving a view on the
stock relative to the market. The sector call was the responsibility of the strategy team, set in co-operation with the analysts.
For other companies, HSBC showed a recommendation relative to the market. The performance horizon was 6-12 months. The
target price was the level the stock should have traded at if the market accepted the analysts' view of the stock.
Rating distribution for long-term investment opportunities
As of 02 April 2009, the distribution of all ratings published is as follows:
Overweight (Buy)
39%
(29% of these provided with Investment Banking Services)
Neutral (Hold)
37%
(29% of these provided with Investment Banking Services)
Underweight (Sell)
24%
(28% of these provided with Investment Banking Services)
Analysts are paid in part by reference to the profitability of HSBC which includes investment banking revenues.
For disclosures in respect of any company, please see the most recently published report on that company available at
www.hsbcnet.com/research.
* HSBC Legal Entities are listed in the Disclaimer below.
Additional disclosures
1
This report is dated as at 03 April 2009.
2
All market data included in this report are dated as at close 02 April 2009, unless otherwise indicated in the report.
3
HSBC has procedures in place to identify and manage any potential conflicts of interest that arise in connection with its
Research business. HSBC's analysts and its other staff who are involved in the preparation and dissemination of Research
operate and have a management reporting line independent of HSBC's Investment Banking business. Chinese Wall
procedures are in place between the Investment Banking and Research businesses to ensure that any confidential and/or
price sensitive information is handled in an appropriate manner.
11 ‘Dislocation barometer’ for Turkish stocks
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Disclaimer
* Legal entities as at 22 October 2008
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