Copyright 1 991 Kahn
TO TRADE WITH
GANNTIMER
A
REVERSAL SYSTEM BASED SOLELY ON TIMEGANN ANGLES,
a
monthlynewlelter
usingthe technical
meihodsof
W.
D.
Gannsince
1983, recently introduced GANNTIMER, a mechanical trading system utilizing TIME rather thanprice.
We are all lamiliar with trend lollowing and mechanical lrading systems that include traditional cycles andwave analyis as intregral components but this is an innovative use ol TIME as a stand-alone reversal system.
GANNTIMER evolved from
a
monthly feature in GANN ANGLES called "180 Degree Dates" thatwas based on
a
simple Gann principle, that a change of trend occurs at the "Midpoint in Time" froma major high or
low.
Gann postulated that changes in trend occur on the one year Anniversary froma
major high
or
low.
lt's
become almosta
given that 507"
retracementsin
PRICEare
importantstopping places but Gann believed that TIME also has support and resistance at the 50% level. He called
it the
Midpointin Time,
or
"180 degrees"or
Dayslrom
a
signilicant highor
low-
That's 26weeks,6
months froma
maior high or low and research, application and experience have proved--that Gann's principle is
correct.
Trend changes really do occur at this pivotal time period. Eight yearsol
tracking and trading "180 Degree Dates" in GANN ANGLES has proven it's worth.GANNTIMER
began
with 180
calendar
day
projectionsand grew into
a
computetized
dale projection program that generates twenty daily dates and ten Weekly dates from each major high andlow in 25
commodities. lt's a
reversal trading system based solely onTIME. lt
applies the broader Gann geometricTime
Principle which states that trend changeslrom
extreme highs and lows occurat
Divisions of 360 degrees.360 divided by
2
=
180360 divided by
3 =
120,240,360
360 divided by
4
=
90,
180, 270360 divided by
5
=
72,
144, (288)The
GANNTIMER Trading System utilizes DAILY Time divisions of 360, with tabulated countsfrom highs and lows
in
both Calendar AND Tradinodavs.
For example, 180 trading days (TD'S) is 2SZ calenda( days (orCD's). Eightyearsof
experiencce with the "180 Calendar Day" feature showsthat at swing highs and lows, both 1 80 CD's AND 180 TD'S can "cluster" at one moment in
Time.
Ofcourse, it can be ANY combination of divisionsof 360, such as 90 TD, 180 CD and 144
TD.
Themoredates that coincide or "cluster" on a singe date, the stronger the ensuing reversal will be.
ln
a
,
using both calendar and trading day counts, therewill be a
totalol 20
Dailv Time counts generatedlrom
each swing High
and
Lowdate.
But that's
not
all.
WEEKLY360
division dateprojections
will be
overlayed onthe
dailyprojections.
Because weekly clusters occur infrequently,THE GANNTIMER TRADING PLAN
The beauty of this system is its
simplicity.
The only requirement is a daily commercial chart or adaily chart from
a
quote
machine.
The
charts are neededto
followthe
many markets thatwill
betracked, and to lransfer the projected cluster dates lor the month listed in GANN ANGLES into luture time with
a
highlighter.There is one judgement call that is required, regarding the overall market Trend PBECEDING the cluster
date.
The trader must decide whether the Trend, the current "swing" or "leg" -- is up or down.This is not difficult, even for a novice, as the shortest daily date projection is 90 calendar days; that's three
months.
Once that decision has been made, entryis
100%mechancial.
GANN ANGLES will often give Trend lndicationlor
each market but il the trend is not crystal clear to the Trader, the tradeshould NOT
be
laken,period.
There will be far more trades available than a single trader can takeanyway,
so
the best advice about the Trend iudgement call is -- WHEN lN DOUBT, STAY OUT.ENTRY RULES
1.
When the Trend is clearly DOWN, 2 trading days prior to the cluster date place an entry BUY stop 40 points above each trading day's High. The 40 point rule includes Stock lndices, Pork Bellies, Cattle, l-logs, Cotton; Bonds 8 ticks;Gold.40;
Silver, Soybeans,Grains,4
cents;Currencies.25
points.
lfno rcversal occurs, continue
to
trail the market down, lowering theentry
Buy Stops eachday.
The Time "window of opportunity" is open lor 6 tradingdays.
Two days before, the day of the cluster, and3
days alter the date.The same rules apply when the trend is clearly
UP.
Place entry SELL stops BELOW each day's low starting 2 trading days BEFORE lhe cluster date, the day of the cluster and 3 days after the date.2
DAY EXITRULt
2.
When the
reversal occurs andthe
entrystop
hasbeen
executed, an open protective stop is entered 40 points below the low of entrv dav on a Buy trade, or 40 points above the hioh of entrv day on a selltrade.
The immediate availability ol a related, non arbitrary stop combined with its limited riskstop aspect, makes GANNTIMEB unique compared
to
other tradingsystems.
When the trade has been profitable for 3 days, stops areraised,
trailing the market with stops 40 points below (above) thelow (high)
lrom
previous two davs. That's all there is to it; for short term trades, the "2 day stop" ruleis simplicity itself
.
Thelrade is
held until it's stopped out. EXIT VARIATIONSOr, if a trade has been held for 5 days without being stopped out and another cluster date is due,
profits can be taken on the next key date on strength, without waiting
to
be slopped out.Or, traders can use momentum oscillators, moving averages, attained price obiectives, breaks of
Gann angles or whalever a favorite trading method for exit may be. GANNTIMER is complementary
EXAMPLES
OF
MOMENTUM MOVESOften, these trades are so powerful, that traders may tind that they have bought or sold on the first reversal day
ol
a
MAJOR TREND CHANGE.Stock lndex futures have been outstanding examples of
this.
ln
1990, every maior high and low was a multiple GANNTIMERcluster.
On Jan 14, 1991 , Stock lndices had a quadruplecluster:
90 CD,90
TD,
143CD,
and
180CD.
That
movewas
a
rocket launchof
7000 S&Ppoints in
less than 2months.
(The 2-day Exit rule held the trade until Feb 15, 1 991 with 6400 pts.) The next high after Jan14 low
was on
Mar6,
1991 which was another quadruplecluster:
90 CD, 91 TD, 72 TD&
180 TD. That swing was 1400 S&Ppoints.
Again on Dec 2 1991, a 90CD, 180CD & 144TD brought in a 3000point S&P move.
These are dramatic examples in one market, but there are outstanding trades available in the antire commodity spectrum occurring every
month.
They will all be listed in this new and exciting leature in GANN ANGLES.TRADING TIPS
Trades
can be taken
using
the
GANNTIMERcluster entry system
on any
single
90
or
180CALENDAR day count. (90CD
or 180CD)
These two time periods are so strong that they don't need the reinforcment of other time periods to bring in a successfultrade.
But when more than TWO datcscluster, it olten brings a sustained reversal
move.
Clusters can be any combination; all trading days,all
calendar daysor
mixed.
When FOUR or more dates converge, the reversal will be sustaincd intime, with powerful momentum in the direction of the new trend.
When Weekly counts cluster, they are so significant, it can change the YEARLY
trend.
On the rareoccasions
when
these stellar
opportunitiesappear,
the
number
ol
units
normallytraded
can
beincreased and/or
diflerent
trading strategies canbe
employed such as positioning in distant futurescontracts or buying out of the money call or put commodity options. COPING WITH RISK
When you begin "Trading with Time", lrade conservatively, ALWAYS WITH PROTECTIVE STOPS.
Take as many of the trades as possible, within account limits, and tollow the
rules.
Use it as a shortterm profit
center.
Don't hesitate to trade ina
commodity group thatyou
haven't traded before, iust use the 40 point two-day exitrule.
Remember that no system is lossproot.
Winning trades take care of themselves, it's how LOSING trades are handled that separates consistent winners from consistent losers.DOING IT YOURSELF
It's a great convenience to have a computer program that projects the Divisions of 360
loMard
in time but it is not anecessity.
Anyone can use commercial charts to simply count out the time periodsfrom highs and lows,
markingthe
countson the chart but
keepingthem
in continuity.
Hereis
alf
Highor
Lowis in
month of:MONTH 90 CALENDAR 90 TRADING 180
CALENDAR
180 TRADINGDAYS DAYS DAYS DAYS
January February March April May June July Aug ust September October November December 3MO (64 TD) April May June July Aug ust Sept October November December January February March 4MO May June July Aug ust Sept October November December January February March April 6MO (131 TD) July August Sept October November December January February March April May June 8 MON
sep
Oct Nov December January February March April May June July Aug ustThe Schematic is designed lor DAILY Charts, with both Calendar and Trading days counted. Adding
counts
of
144 calenda( and 144 trading days will increase power of theclusters.
ln addition, Weeklyand Monthly 90, 180
and
144 counts should be added "clustering" with dailycounts.
Count Calendar and Trading Days from all MAJOR Highs and MAJORLows.
Carry the Time counts across your chart, marking future dates with colored highlighters. These become your trading "windowsol
opportunity."GANNTIMER has two characteristics that make it the ideal trading
vehicle.
First, the entry stopsrequire the MARKET ITSELF to act by reversing the prevailing Trend, rather than the Trader making
assumptions
about
price ortime, that
mayor
may not becolrect.
Itthe
reversaldoes
NOT occurwithin ihe 6 day "Time Window", no Vade takes place and therefore, no loss is
incurred.
The secondleature, equally important,
is the
verylow
risk stop thatis
immediately available whenthe
reversalUse
Gann's charting
methods to
gainfrom
today'
s
high-tech
markets
Logic and reason would tell y'ou other-wise. yet 25 years later. the July 4ll high helped identifv the 1913
high.
Ofcourse. other Cann techniques must be used to confirm such calculations but it
begins with information from a
con-tinuation of the same contract month.
November sovbeans have their own unique signature that differs widely from the July contract. The all time low
of
November beans was made inFebuary. 1940 at
l9l
l14. In 197-1. 34 years later. this contract rnade new his-toric high at 956. an "exact" five-timemultiple of l9
I
I11.In 1983. November beans made a new
historic high at 968 but even then. nine years later. that five-time multiple still
held its ground as re.sistance. Although
November. 1983 soybeans made three attempts. there was not one close at or
above 956 and the third high was $e top
of the market. Also coming into play at that top is Principle number two:
When two contracts (or more) of the same month but different yf.an are trad-ing simultaneously. all the angles.
Mid-points. support and resistance apply equally to both contracts.
In August. 1983. while the powerful
bull
market wasin
progress, theNovember, 1984 contract began trad-ing. It opened $2.50 below the Novem-ber. 1983 contract. Plotting it on the weekly Novemberchart showed that the
distant contract was far below all the angles supporting the front month and
Char:ing it
Gann's
Way
Phvllis Kahn
requently. new' students
of
theGann methods become mired in
complexities even when several of the most simple and powerful Gann concepts are so easy to understand and apply. For example. no market master before or after Gann has recognized the
importance of treating each commodity contract month as a separate and
com-plete entity. Gann's remarkable prin-ciple (an observation made over 50 years ago) that a mathematical
relation-ship and a continuity in price extending
over years of time exists in the same
contract month is a tribr.rte to Gann's genius that proves itself over and over
again even
in
today's
high-tech markets. The rule. requiring weekly andmonthly charts of an individualcontract
month to be plotted in continuity from year
to
year appliesto
all
futuresmarkets. Since soybeans were one of Gann's favorite markets, we'll use it to
illustrate how relevant the principle is
(combined with otherGann methods) to
market analysis that leads to low risk.
profitable trading. There are several reasons why Cann insisted that this was the only way to chart commodities. Principle number one being the
follow-ing:
To retain mathematical purity for price projections. Gann taught that significant
highs were mathematically related to
historic lows and/or historic highs.
If one uses weekly and monthly
com-mercial charts utilizing "nearby futures" updating. lows and highs
of
priceswings from different contracts. they will produce erroneous results for range calculations and price projections.
t2
Mathematically, it's like mixin_e apples and bananas. "Nearby" charts can also
show double or triple tops or bottoms
that when compared to "same month"
charts. they do not. in fact exist.
'
A powerl'ul example of howimpor-tant this occurrence is, is at the all time
high in soybeans. The current historic high in soybeans was made in June. 1973 in the July contract. In 1972. the
July contract took out its own historic high from 1948 entering new uncharted
price territory. A Gann analyst would take the old high. 433, multiply
it
bytwo. and then by three (three is
impor-tant in Gann methods). When prices
sailed through 866.
it
was clear theywere headed for higher levels. Multi-plying 433 x 3 = 1296: this calculation
missed the I 290 high by only nine cents.
JUL SOYBEANS i illl ,"1
rilii
jlliltll,t/
'
'il,t,*/h/qpnn,;' l 200 I 100 I 000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 I 974 l 975ct.rtP.rtxi t2.o. xAtLllCl 3. txc J.o. Il. l9co !.la:Jt
t972 I 973
I 970 l97l
bearish in a bull marker. ln August rhrough earl.v September.
1983. while the front month Novemher. l9tt3 made a rop ar
968. the distant November. l9t{-1. on rhe same charr. macle a
triple top at 721
.
Few traders. other than a Gann trader with aNovember continuation chart up to date. coulcl have had the
foreknowledge to anticipate and rrade the top (orher Gann methods were used fclr confirmation). Incredibre as it may seem, history repeated itself five years later in
lgllli.
WhenNovember, 1988 beans hir 1046 in June. l98tJ. the November. 1989 contract made high at 793. 52.-5-3 below,the l9tj3 con-tract!
While the November. l9tl9 contracr was duplicatins weak-ness seen at the 1983 high. another illustration of the value of keeping continuation charts was occurring simurtaneousry.
Most Gann traders keep at least three separate soybean
con-tract charts: November. Ma1' (Gann's favorite contract) and
July (it contains the historic high f or all conrracts ). During the
vertical bull move in June. 1988, as November. 1988 beans
were making new historic highs daily, a rrader following
May, 1989 soybeans on a May monthly "Gannstyle" chart. would have been alerted to strong divergence occurring at the time. The monthly showed tops in 1983 at 996,and 1980 at 1006 in the May conrracr. On the high day in June, 1988,
amidst wild talk of "beans in the teens," the May. 1989 con-tract struggled up to 1003, a triple top with the 1980 and 1983
highs and made the top. This obvious nonconfirmation (in a supposedly unstoppable bull marker) gave rhe Gann trader the
foreknowledge,the confidence and the low risk opportunity to
do what few could do, follow Gann's rule. "sell against old
THE
POSITION TRADER'S
NEWSLETTER
I I
I
ere you onthe
right
sideof
"Black
Mon-YY
day?" Were you ready for the March '87 topin Bonds? Gann Angles subscrlberc wetel And they
continue
to
receive Phyllis Kahn's valuable insight (often months in advance) about the price and time when market swings should occur! Gann Angles fea-tures integrated yearly, monthly, and weekly analysis,cycle summations, and squaring of price & time for
major stock indices and futures markets. Other
ex-clusive features:
. ll
x 17 updatable weekly/monthly Gann charts with predrawn angles.
The '180 Degree Turn" column projecting nrajor market reversalsHelpful introductory material included
with
newsubscriptions.
Phyllis Kahn app€ars weekly on
Financial News Network
featur-ing Gann market forecasts. She
has published Gann Anglessince
1982 to provide Gann analysis for
the
position trader. Sheis
alsocurrently managing a popular op-tions fund.
If you missed the big trades in 1988, subscrlbc
to
Gann Angles to be ready for the big trades ln f989! Our December issue features the Gann out. look for the stockmarket in 1989.Don't
mlcgtf,ls
opportuntty
to
subscrlbe todaylRETURN THIS COUPON OR PHONE
YES!
Please enter my subscription as indlcated.!
6-Months (6 issues)$180. a
BEST UALUE!D Sample issue only. l-Year (12 lssues) t295.
Name: Address:
City/State/Zip:
(hst ptformance des not guatantec future succcss.) GA E9
l 000 950 900 750 ?00 650
During the decline that followed the June. 1988 high,
diver-gence again developed between the November, 1988, May.
1989 and November. 1989 contracts. This time. is was a bul-lish divergence as the two distant months strengthened on the
decline relative to November, 1988. And so it goes.a
con-tinuous monitoring of these separate contract month charts
will always bring information into the light rhat's available nowhere else. These "Gann style" charts are the foundation,
the base upon which the whole of Gann's analytic methods are
applied. No one before or after Gann has perceived quite so
clearly how the world of the market really works. Phyllis Kahn is the editor of Gann Angles,
NOV SOYBEANS I lh llliqr
tl'I1l
ll
lll'^u{nrrd!r,rrr^i,[/''*l'
fl
Phylllc KahnPHYLLIS KAHN,
EDITOR
August
Le87THE POSITION TRADER'S
NEWSLETTER
sF0ruGer
o[
TEEsmcf,
rrxrF
The
reluctance
shown
by
the
Stock
Arket
to go
down
during July
has:rtainly
been
apparent
yet the internals
have
not
confirmed
nor is
the overall
evaluation
of a
top
in this
time
framebeen
invalidated. In fact
prices
could
move somewhat
higher without
changing the
outlook.
Let
Is
look
at
someof
the
Gannreasons why
this is
so.
In a
stock forecasting course,
Gannsaid ttln
extreme
markets
,
(no one
candeny
that
we tre
i-n one)
prices
mayrun
upfor 5
years
without a
major
correction,
but
watch
for a
change
in the
59th
month.rf
Ju1y87 was
the
59th nonth
from
the
L982
low,
so
coming
up
on August
9
is
the
5 year,
60
month
Anniversary date of
the last
major
low.
This
month
is
also
the
154th
month
up from
the
Oct
1974
low,
.=he
price
and
cycle
low
of this
almost
13 -ear
old
bull market. Incidentally,
Gani
had the
sameadmonition
for
YEARSas
hedid
for
months.
ttAt the
end
of
major
cycles,
like in
1869
and 1929,
look
for
achange
in
the
59th
YEAR.rr
That,
friends
is
1988,
the
59ttr
YEARin
Gann's
major
60YEAR CYCLE.
Sixty years ago in
L927
prices
did
not take any big
corrections
'
just
aIdaing pattern and then up
.and ahtayagain.
Thirty
years
ago
in
1957
prices
topped
in
July
and bottomed
in
Novenberwhich
is the
exact
pattern the
monthly
Cash
S&P500
is
showing
for
time
turning
points on the
Master
Price &
TimeCalculator.
Dail-y
and
weekly
cycles
in
the
S&P500
that
have worked
since
L982are for the first tine late
and
prices
are
trading
up
into
the
next higher
(3rd)
price square on the
weekly,
both
positives
for
the
bullish side.
Thi.s
canmake
futures traders
and nearby option
players very
unhappy
but
nothing
hasreally
changed
except
all
the
Averagesbut
the
Dow,
have
gone
sideways
to
up
at
high
levels with
non-confirnations
abounding.
While
mentioning
the
Dow,
you
should
know
an important
resistance
numberthat
is in play right
now--
2520.
This
is
one of the
most
potent
Gannrrnaturalrt
numbers
because
it
ts
360x7.
(Natural
numbers
apply
to
everything as
opposedto
calculations
based
on
previous
highs,
lows,
ranges, tine.
)
The
Dow overcamethe
square
of
49
(the
strongest natural
number)
so of
course,
this
one
will
beovertaken
too but
noL
without
backing,
filling
and strong resistance.
0n the
higher side for
the
Dowis
a
really
big
barrier at
27OO. There
are
at
least half
a
dozen
Ganntype
calculations
based
onlows, highs,
squares
etc. that
convergeat
27OO
suggesting
that
MAJOR }|AJ0R RESISTANCEwaits there.
Amongothers,
the
L929
hl-,
386
x
7
==
2702.AI{NIVERSARY DATES FOR
2 2 3 4
Hi
LoHi
Lo Aug Aug Aug Aug 1956 I 963 1959 198631
years
24
years**
28
years
I
year
'Contt
OnPage
2puBLrsHED By GANNWoRLD, rNc.,
3315
Martin Rd
Carmel Ca
93923 REPRODUCTION IN WHOLE OR PART NOT PEFMITTED WITHOUT PUBLISHER'S PFIIOR WRITTEN CONSENTAugust
1987Lo
AngLo
A,rgLo
Aug8
18969
L9829
1983Con
tt
From Page
I
ANNIVERSARY DATES FORthe
GannMaster
Price
&
Time
Calculators,
its
price and time
symetry
is
asbeautiful
in its
ownway
as
a
rose.
The square
is
38
(price) x
76
(time).
It
begins
in
Jun
1972
at
the
low
at
26.
The first
L/4 point
camein at
the
e*lTr
low as did
the
Midpoint
in
Time,
which
then led to a
fantastic
run
up
to
the
high at
76.10
exactly
76 months
from the
low.
The price
high
on
the chart
wasmade
on
Oct 10
1978
but
it
hrasin
the
Dec1979 sengr'6g-t
-:Es
distant
month
of
twoGE-ing at the
timil--Tne
nearby
monthhigh
was 6951 (L/8
inro
a
new.square).
The
higher
price
was used
because
it
wasa
square
of the
Time
period
in
monthr.-.from
the
low.
If you study the
Chart
you'll
seethat both
angles
and
Time turns
weresuperb.
Notice
that
the Midpoint
in
Timein the 2nd
square
of
76
was
only
onemonth
late
and
a
few
points
from
the
top
of
a ral1y
that led to further
declines.
This
Midpoint
rally
high
was
followed
byanother perfect
high
at
the 2/3
division
in
Time
also exactly
at
a Price
Division
on
the Square.
The
Square ended
at
price
35.35 on Feb
25
1985
at exact
End
of
rhe
Square
76
months
from
the
Oct
78 high!
Since ther85 low,
prices
have
beenrising at
a
sharp
angle
of
ascent
for
2I/2 years,
holding
completely
above the
two
2xL
angles
drawn
up
from
the
Feb
an/--May
85 lows,
seen
infrequently on
amonthly
chart.
And
very bullish.
Notice
that
the
highs
in
Jan 87
and
M"J.87
eachhit into the triple
ttchannelrf
of
Ix2
angles
rising from the major
lows
in
1972
,
L974 and 1977.
As
classic
Gannwould
suggest,
the
channel
of
angles
hasacted
as resistance, holding
prices
for
acorrection. 0f
special
interest also
is
that the M.y 87
price
hieh
aL
7075
is
double
the
Feb
85
price
low
of
3525.
A11
pullbacks
and
corrections
should
be
supporLed
by
the
two
sharply
rising
2xI
angles from
the
low.
Currently
Dec87Swiss
has
made
low at
the
6508
level,
above
t,he
monthly
angles
and
also
holding
above
the
monthly
low
rnadein
Marchat
91
years
5
Years****
4
years
66
years*
Lo
Aug
24
L92I
This is a
month
that
has
seen
somevery significant
time
turns
in
the
stock
market. The historic low in
Lhe
DowJones
Industrials
lras
in
1896
(28.5)
91years
ago.
The
L92l
low
was
an
important
one also
while the
most
recent
is
the
5year
Anniversay
of our current
Bull
Market
,
a
potentially
key
date
this
year
because
it can be a culmination.
Asdiscussed
earlier a high
made now canlead us into a
major low
in
November.This timing would be in
complete
agreement
with the timing already
in
place for
TBonds.
(36
weeks
from
high
is
week
Nov.13).
STRAGTEGIES
&
PRICE LEVELSThe
Cash S/P500
has
a price division
at
320
that
could
be
hit.
This
of
course
rouTt bring
the
Sep
S/P
up
into the
322to
324
area
if
prices
were
to
surge
into
the
August Anniversary
date. IF
that
occurs, Bo
short
Dec
S/P
or
use
Decout
of
Lhe
moneyoptions.
The
next
important
time turn is the end of
SeptemberAFTER
expirations.
If you
have
lost
money
in
options
because
of
time
runni-ngout, dontt be afraid to
reinstate
samepositions in
Dec contractsrFutures
or
0ptions,
BUT
deeply
out
of
the
moneyis
where the
leverage
is.
Then
all
vou
needis
patience,
dontt
be
short
of
that.
-,+ t$
* tt *
r$ls
lr tt
Jt lT*
t+lt
l+CIART OF THE I'O}rnI
DEC SWISS FRAI{C I.ONIIILT
This is the
enti.re
Suiss Franc froo
the
Currency
trading
in
1972.
history
of
the
beginnlng of
August
L9876477. If prices
take
out
m.
going
above
the
triple
angles,
tt this
market
will
exceedingly
headed
for
years ago
at
Con t
t Fron
Page
2strong
position
a test of
the
76LO.the
high
at
ttchannel
of
be in
ancertainly
old
high
9Buying
Dec
Swiss,
6500
to
6600,should
see
moveinto
70ts
within next
12weeks.
l.{inimum
objective
7100
to
7300with potential to try for
the old
high
later
oDr
perhaps
reaching 7600
bYMidpoint
in
Time
in April
88.
rs
* lr lr * * * * * lt lt lt * * *
FWI'S
OI{ HTNAITCIAI,SNo
market
has
behaved
better
on
the
Gann
analysis than
TBonds
over
a
long
period of time.
While
the
stock
market
goes
its wilsy
ways,
Bonds
have
doneeverything
expected
of them.
Letrs
recap:
In
March
87,
Weekly
Sep TBondsmade
a
144 week
high
from
the
Jun 84
low
and fell
down hard
into
the
May
low at
-8603.
rices a
(Objective
few
32nds
8600)
above
The ral1y
I/2
way
back
took
andnow
another
decline
has
begun.The
weekly objective
is at
the
8150to
8000
level.
At
the
first 1/88
reektnto
the
new
square,
prices
hadalready
begun
their decline,
breaking
angles as they go.
For those
whounderstand
it,
a
weekly
rrgtrangle
drawnup from
the
Apr
86
high
was
broken on the
downside
when
prices fell
below
9LI6
basis
Sep
contract.
What
this
teattE-fi
plain
English
is that a
very
significant
weekly support
angle
has been
taken
out
in a
meaningful manner.
Price
lows
in
May87
hit the
angle, but did not
close
below
it.
I,lehave
already
had
a
wholeweekly range and
close
below
it.
It
sets
an objective for the
next
lower
angle
below
currenL
pri-ce
objective at
8000.TRADING STRATEGY
The out of
the
moneyput
options
onTBonds
are
too
overpriced
to
buy now; not
like they
were back
in
March
87.
Sotrading in futures is
desirable
underthose
circumstances
but
don tt
trade
in
the front.
Move
out to the
MarchSScontract; sbtt
on
rallies
and
hold
until
objectives are met.
0n
myweekly
SepBond
chart, I plot
the
Sep88 AND Sep89contracts with
the
current
87 and
to
mysurprise,
on
the
week
ending
7/24/87,
the
Sep89
contract
was almost
back
to
the
price level it
reached
on
the
1or.r t'lay22nd
at 82L6! If
anyone
doubts rhar
we t
re in
a
bear
narket
in
Bonds
just
look
at the
back
months;
they
are
falling
at
an
accelerated
rate.
Also look
at
other
financials.
The
weakest
of the
spectrun
of financial
futures
are the
Muni-Bonds.0n
down
days,
they
really fall
but
youdare not
go
out
any
further
than
Dec87,the
volume
isn
It
there
the
way
it is
with
TBonds, the highest
volume
of all
futures.
Remember
that the
next
important ti-me
division on
the
weeklysquare
is not until
the
L/4
point,
36weeks,
due
the
week
of
Nov
13
87.
Don It
buy
Dec TBondput
optionilo6-expensive.
Look
at
deeply
out
of
the
rnoneyDec
Euro$put
options,
9050
and 9000;
contract
lowis
9013,
they
are
still
bargains.
ANNIVERSARY AUGUST IN
Hi
Aug
12
1954Lo
Aug
20
I97OHi
Aug
23
1932Hi
Aug
26
1977Hi
Aug
27
1987 DAIES FORTSmS-33
years
17
years
55
Y€ars****
10
Years#*
1
year
As you see, these
Anniversaries
really
reach back
in
ti-me. Ihe
L932high
was
in the
Dow
Bond
Average
and
that
makes
it
a
Fibanocchi 55
time
cycle.
TheL977
high
was
the
opening
weekof
TBondfutures and they
nade
a 5
year high
at
that time so it is
an
inportant tining
date.
If
prices
have
been
falling
hard
all nonth,
and
or/
price
objectives
are
Conft
Page 64
August
1987 0'$
)0
r{n
al
0\
Ut rJnlf!
x,'{(0
tL0!x
[) 3 lllalJ r l^ lx ( U'tEI 000r! 'IQ0
u(
0x
(
\
SFN
NZ '<[J z E0x( $x 00[0
tilLt'l> liv r! lJ. 0+0F0[
rQ ,(3
gI
0-0U-\---'\
Ti't---A* t::l-
- - - -) -. -- - - -) - - - -I I ..1'. I l | :' I I I 't ,/'' i '. : r t 27' i ' I I r:. It1,
I I -lt I rr !l 35 3l 275
August
I987 l:. !.r l; 't; -].\ -l-:-.! ' !..: !: t: t: t: -l-:-!:6
August
1987ANNIVERSARY DATES FOR
hit, this
would
be
a time
to cover. If
prices are rallying into
the
end
of
the
nonth,
another
selling opportunity is
presented.
Other than
the
dates
above,there
are
no
kqv dates
in
August.
r**tF***l+13*******
FOCUS ON SOYBEAI.IS
Since the high in
June,
the
Price
pattern on the
weekly
November Soybeanchart is
not
typical of
Soybeans comingout of
a
major
bottom.
The
lst
12
weeksleading
into
the
double
top
were
typical.
A vertical
ascent
, a pullback into
ahigher
high
that hit
an
angle from
a
high
a year earlier, right
on
course.
Andthen prices broke the
45 degree angle
from the
weekly
low
in Feb87.
That
is
not
typical. It
places
the
entire
double
bottom
on
the
weekly
in
jeopardy.
Eventhe high at
625
rnissed
the
I/3
rangedivision
from
the
83
high
to
87
1ow
by
4cents, not a
good
sign.
Here
are
the
range
divisions for
the
Nov87contract
from
the
low:
| / 8=48O
.7
I / 4=5OI.4
1/3s515 . 33/8--522
W=542.6
5/8=563 .2213
570.6
3/ 4=583.8
7/8=604.4
These divisions
should
tell you
howstrong or
weak
this
market
will
be
whenit starts up to test
the high.
Notice
that
there
were
several closes
below L/3
as prices
dropped
to 508.
This
also
is
not
favorable.
If
you
bot the
low
(as
the
time
was
right), trail
the
trade
with
a
stop
below weekly
lows,
moving
it
up
asprice
moves
up. As it
gets
closer
to
timing below, pull stops
under
DAILYlows.
Hi
AugLo
AugLo
AugLo
Aug 197 4 197 2 L976 2 4 611 t978
13
years
15
years
11 years*
9
years**
10 years**
L4
years
L7
years
L2 years**
22
years
Lo
Aug
16
L977Hi
Aug
17
Lg;,nHi
Aug
21
1970Hi
Aug
22
1975Lo
Aug
23
1965In the
seventies,
August
was
a
keymonth
in
Beans
but it has not
beenprominent at all
in the
eighties.
However,
this
August may be
the
exception.
There are
two
keyAnniversaries
that
frclusterfr with this
yearts contract low
180 degree
date
onAgg L7 so let's
look
at
the
two
dates
above
from
1977
(Gannts 10
year cycle)
and hi from
L973
on 4ug 16
&
J7.
This
may
be
the
major
turn
of
the
month
in all
the
grains.
If
prices are
rising
into
that
Monday,
take
profits
and go
short.
If prices
are
falling into
the date,
Bolong and buy options.
The
most
likely
scenario
is that
prices
will
ral1y
to
oneof
the
range
divisions
above
and
make animportant
top
on
that date.
The Aug
22date is
144
months
ago and a
very
important
Lirne
cycle
in
Beans.
I
have
astudy on
the history
of
beans
from
I92Oshowing
I-{AJORturning points
L43
to
L47months
apart.
(one
of
these months,
Itll
put
it in
GA.)If
Midmonth
is
a high,
expect
the
Beansto enter a final
downwardthrust
that
will
take out current contract
lowsmaking
new
final
lows
in
Dec87to
Feb88tj-me
slot.
Short Jan
or
Mar88
&
buydeeply
out of the
moneyJan88
options
that week.
There Is
plenty
to
be
madewhichever
r.raythis
market
goes.
Stay
onyour toes.
August
L987GOLD UPDATE
While
the
Bears
are
still
predicting
$100
Gold, futures quietly
madeprice
lows in
the
8th
week
downfrom
the
high
on
June
22 then
traded
sideways
to
upduring July.
That
June
low
was
also
L'}I
weeks
from the
Feb
1985
low, the
pti."
low of this decade.
Other
important
weekly
lows
from
the
t85 low
were
at
4Lweeks,
57
wee-s,
!Q
weeks
and
103
week{
all
harmonics
of
the
same LzOweek
cycle.
So
the
agenda
from here
shows
the
weekly
and
nonthly
charts
looking very
positive
and ready
to
ro11.
ANNIVERSARY DATES
ffi
FORbeen
soaring, profit taking
maybe
in
order
then.
If
prices are
falling
sharply
on
the
lst
trading
day
in
August, grab
upthose
out
of
the
moneyOctober
options at
firesale prices.
Dec
Comex
Gold
hasweekly
objectives
at
527 and
555
with
keyweeklv
dates
Sep
11
aitNou
{
It * *
.tt tE .,s J* Jttt * * lf * *
rfANNIVERSARY DATES FOR
I
Hi
Aug
I
1975Hi
A,rg
2
L97 4Hi
Aug
4
L972Hi
Aug
4
1981Lo
Aug
6
L979L2
years*#
13
years
15
years
6
years
8
years
Hi
AugLo
A,rgLo
AugHi
A,rg
11
L978Lo
Aug
L4
1970Lo
A,rg
16
1968Lo
Aug
L7
L982Lo
Aug
18
l97I
Hi
Aug
18
L97 5Hi
Aug
18
1966Hi
Aug
24
1973Hi
Aug
24
L976Hi
Aug
25
1972Hi
Aug
26
1977Lo Arg 29
1975Lo
Aug
30
L9672 1974
13 y€ars*xx
2 1979
8
years
5 L977
10
years
Lo
Aug
L7
1973
L4
years
Lo
Aug
25 1978
9
years
Lo
Aug
25
L976
11
years***r+
Hi
Aug
27 I97I
16
years
FIREWORKSIN
AUGUSTThe
Aug
I
Anniversary
above
is
not
-^
rnly
144
months
ago
but
this
year,
that
date
(weekend)
is
a
planetary
occcurence
that
corresponded
to
the
Jun 16
low
last
year that
produced
a
$100
upmove!
In
other years, for
example
in
L982,
5years ago (a
good
Gann
timer)
gold
futures
madea
pullback
low
on
the
exact
date
when
this
planetary
effect
began
andmade
a
running,
gapping
upmoveof
$180,also
in
August.
Anything
can
happen
this
year as
two
other
planets
are
involved
in
the
same
configuration
which
I
haven tt
seen before. It could
mean
lots
of
excitement with
limit
up
movesuntil
the
24Lh
of
August
when
the
planetary
effect
expires aE
once
for
ALL THREE PLANETS !Are
ttthe
starstt
telling
us
there
will
beproblems
in
the
Mid
East?
I think
so.
Notice the
Anniversaries
at
the
endof
Ehemnth
that
also
correspond
to
the
change.
fire
alltilne lor ln
futures
uasmade
on
the
1976
date
so
if
prices
haveAugust
is
THEmonth
in
Pork
Bellies
as you can see. In
previous years
the
Great
Discrepancy between
Aug
&
Febcontracts offered a great
spreading
opportunity
into the
August
expiration
i.e. selling
Arlgand buying
Feb
at
around1700. If
you
put
on
the
spread,
use
astandard
200
point
stop
from
your
entry
point and let
the
chips
fall
where
Lheymay. If
youtre
stopped
out,
watch
Febsfor test of
6400
level in first
3
trading
days
of
August.
If
they are
a
breakout,
go with it
on
long
side
until
inportant
dates
Midmonth. Notice
howthe
dates are
bunched;
first two days,
nidmonth
andlast
days
of
month.9
years
L7
years
L9
years
5
years
16
years
L2
years
2I
years
14
years
11 Years***
15
years
10
years
L2
years
20
years
* * * * tt tt lt
l3lt
tstt tt * *
tt8
August
1987DATE
180
DEGREES180
DEGRBE TURNS FOR AUGUST 1987 COMI'ODITYFR0[[-t'lin
Hi
CATTLEHi
LU},IBERMaj Lo
WHEATContr
Lo**
CORNContr
Lo**
SOYBEANSContr
Lo**
BEAN l'tEALMin
Hi
Feeder
Cattle
Maj
Lo
GoldMaj
Lo
Silver
Maj
Lo
Platinum
Maj Lo
Palladiun
Maj Lo Cotton
Contr Lo
Aug
Bellies
Contr
Lo***
CRB flITIRESAND CASH INDEX
Contr
Lo**
Unleaded
GasHi
COFFEEContr Lo
HogsContr
Lo**
Lt
Crude
0i1
Contr
Lo**
Heating
0i1
Hi
SUGAR F'I]LL MOONNEW MOON, MondaY
0f
the
manyfutures
groups
that
haveno listings this
month,
financials
andstock Indices
had
very
strong
trends in
February that
were continuations
of
earlier
turn
points
Listings for first
days
of
Septemberare
included
to
makesure
you have
themin
case
GAis late.
The Stock
}larket
hasan astro date for
_$S!,I that
has
beenpresent
at major
turns
in
the
past
andthat signature could also affect
the
energy futures
in
a big
wayr
so
be
ready
for it.
Ir**ttrT*******tglr*
Aug AugAug
L7Aug
L7Aug
L7Aug
L7Aug
18Aug
18Aug
18Aug
18Aug
19Aug
19Aug
19 Aug Aug Aug Aug sep sep sep August August4rr
5rr
25 25 26 29 2 2 2 n ll il ll ll It It il ll n il It il ll ll ll ll ltThis
month
is
a
strange
1ist.
Thereare few
groups
and
theytre
all
bunchedwithin 3
daYs
in the third
week
of
August. This
tells
us
that
week
is
key
&highlighted during the month.
Augustalso has several multiple
planetary
angles that can affect all
the
commodities
(separate
and
apart
from
whatwas discussed solelY for the
Goldmarket).
The
l9ttr is
one
of
the
dates,
with the
others
falling
on
that
weekendprior to the
new
moon.
Notice
every
commodity
in the
CRB
Index
has
a
turn
during that 3rd
week
and
Grains
are
coming
from
contract
lows
that
were
major
on weekly and monthlY
charts.
Your
response
to the
GAI{N
AI{GLES FUTURESn I{D
has
been
so
terrif ic
that
the Pool will
probably
close
by
the
endof
August.
If
you do have an
interest
in
it,
please
let
us
knowquickly
so
youcan receive the 0ffering
Memorandum. Minimuminvestment
$15r000.
BTTLLETIN BOARD
The
Gann
Seminar
Seasonended
on
a
high
note
with a great
NewYork
group
in
July.
My
thanks
to
everyone
who
attended
all
three
Seminars
in
Chicago,
LA
and
the
Big
Apple.
ILts
always
a
stimulating
&gratifying
experience
for
meto
get
out
there
and meet
all of
you
personally.
*
.t+ t+li tt lt * * lt lt * *
l+* *
9 24
GANN ANGLES i3 pobtilhed monthty and ia mada ev.rlablg lo lubacribors lor inloflnelioa purpoao3 only. lnlormstion ia obtaingd hom aources deom6d to be rolieble but
; ;;i;;";L;
;; r";ccuracy or comptere-niis.'njiceri ,ring ilr. intormalion contaimd hotein ata sobly rerpon3ible lor lhoir oltn actiona No r€pres6nlalion can ieteireJro treretrr. fne editor, associaies, cireciors, or e.p'toyees and clients may purchase and/or sell commoditi€s relerred lo h'rainvoLUME
Xnt
rssuE 11PHYLL
IS
KAH
N
,
ED
ITO
R
JULY 1997THE
POSITION TRADER'S
NEWSLETTER
$TOCKTAR'GT HIGH1TGHTS
June was a powerful month ln the stock market, making
new highs for 11 trading days lrom June 6 to June 20, an
excitlng new record for the books. Many pros and the public
allke are convlnced that this
ls
now normal stock marketbehavior and will (and should) contlnue lndelinitely lnto the luture. But those ol us who were trading in 1973 remember
what it was like to have a Dow 5O% retracement in less than
two years. Not pretty.
When a Stock Market as strong as this prevalls, many ol
our trled and true lndlcators fall us as well as several Gann technlques that have been lnfallible until
recently.
But desplte all thefallures,
momentum oscillators stlll work.l.Jslng 14 and 2E trading day slow stochastics, when they
reach up into the 9O's and down lnto single diglts, they stlll
remaln unbeatable. And so it was that during the week ending
June 20th that we had several days readlngs at the 96 & 94 levets on the two osclllators, so lt was no surprlse that we had
a
Monday close down 194 polnts on theDow.
Yes, werecovered lrom it, but be warned that lt's the llrst of many
such record down days ahead ol us ln 1997.
It's been diflicult to almost impossible to identify thetimlng for THE top but l'm still trying. lf we have not made top by the end of June, there are some powerhouse dates ln July. Let's
look at the Anniversarles:
DOW JONES IN JULY
Ht
JULY
21986 -- 11 YEARS***Hl JULY
6 1988--
9Yf[p5****
LOJULY
71993
4 YEARS**** LOJULY
S1932
67 YEARS**Hl
JULY 16 1957-
40ff,[ps*****
LO JULY 16 1996-
1 YEAR**"HI
JULY 171985
12 YEARS***HI
JULY 17 1990-
7 YEARS***** LO JULY 251984
13 YEARS****Hl
JULY 311992
5fl[s15*****
Notice flrst that out
ol
10 dates, 6 were highs & we have been in a malor bull market lor 23 years so that's noteworthy.Also notice that last year's low of the year was on Jul 16 as
well as this year's 40 year Annlversary, plus 2 hlghs ln 1985
and 1990 on July 17. Very compelllng dates for week'endlng July 18. We may have already aeen the high by the time you recelve this but ll we should make new
hlghs,
Lagt month I gave you a Dow price prolectlon for a potential high al772O whlch was exceeded in June by more than 20O points. Wetrled.
lt was a2Ox multiple of the 386 hlgh lrom 1929. lf, blglf,
we make new hlghs ln July, let's shoot lor El(Xl whlch ls Flbonaccl 21 tlmes 386 (actually El06) plus the Square ol 90,whlch Gann hlmself would crow about. Buy Dec putslll
Here are MAJOR breakpoint prices: Dow close below 7397:
Cash S&P close below SE!; Sep97 S&P50O close below E6f:
OEX close below
&It
Nasdaq close below 13&* Dow Utlllty close below ZE2; Dow Transports close below2tr57.
Anycloses below these key levels are SELL SIGNALS. Utilities
and Transports are closest. TRADING STRATEGY: I urge you
not to buy nearby puts but to go all the way to Dec97 so you give yourself max TIME
for
yourmoney.
Yes, they areoverpriced but with the momentum in thls market you will be
repald handsomely for the extra premium. Remember that Gann's most important'prlnciple is that price is a lunction of
TIME, so buy yoursell l'lME; price will come to you ln the next
:"Hln:****
**** **** ** ** ** *FOCUS ON RNANCIALS!
Whlle the Stock Market has been breaklng records on the upslde, Bonds have reluctantly sustalned
a
mild rally thatbegan ln April at the same tlme as the Stock Market low.
While in a rising trend, the price actlon has been llke dragging
a tree up a steep mountaln. Bonds made their last hlgh in Feb
'97 and have not been able to regain that
high.
All of this isablt ol dela vu lrom the 1987 market where Bonds topped in
early March as the Stock Market went wild on the upside until August. But thls tlme around, at least so far, Bonds have not
been as weak as they were in 'E7.
But that can change quickly too as thls ls also the 4th year
slnce the Bonds made malor hlgh ln Oct '93 and the 4th year
from the high lollowlng a 12 year
bull
market cycle'should'puBl-tSHED By cANNwoRLD. tNc., 4$i Trinity Are- Suilc A Scddc' Cr 9J9li5 nery FAX 40t{!llL9f 12
REPRODUCTION tN WHOLE OR PART NOT PERMITTED WITHOUT PUBLISHER'S PRIOR wRITTEN CONSENT. phonc 4{FJ)}2(m
e-mail:
gannangles@redshift'com
2
JULY 1997be a heavy down year to complete the down phase. so far it has not lollowed the expected scenarlo but could change as
we move into the last 2 quartere ol thls year.
Right now we should focus
on
posltlonlnglor
the blgbreakdown.
on
June25,
hourly bonds closed below their breakpoint, giving an hourly sell signal. Butthe
key level iea eell slgnal on the daily chart. A close ln sep Tbonds below
11O.1O
will
be a malor sell signal. At that tlme you can goshort lutures and/or buy Dec Bond puts
lor
a positlon hold lnto Oct/Nov.ANNIVERSARY DATES FOR
TBONDS & DOW BONTXi IN JULY
LO
JULY
2
1984--
13 YEARS**** LOJULY
7
1995-.
2 YEARS*** LO JULY 111994
3 YEARS*T* LO JULY 131978
19 YEARS*T*Hl
JULY 141934
63 YEARST***Hl
JULY 181933
64ff[p5****
There are not many malor turns ln July suggesting that the
June hlghs may hold but use the dates to coincide with our
sli:xT.ll.':.:""::r"131T1...
SOYBEAN UPDATE
The contlnulng weakness
ln the
new dlstant Soybean contracts as they come on the board ls both disturbing andBearlsh. They have brought on both July 98 and July 99 contracts, (to whlch Gann traders pay attentlon) wlth their
current closlng prlces 668 and 655 respectlvely. The Nor€E
contract
is
637.20
cents belowthe
'97contract.
Withwldespread announcements
on
nightly TV newa about the expected etfectsof
a new El Nino forming worldwide, lt's strange that these Bearish relatlonshipsstill
prevall in theSoybean complex. Or is it?
On my weekly July contlnuatlon chart,
I
have plotted the July98 contract ln red below the current July whlch is holdingabove
8fl)
and expires on the21st.
This week the Jul'98contract broke below 66E the Nov 12 '96 key
low.
The Jul99 contract at 655 ls lust that much lower. After July 21, Jul '98wlll be the lead conlract on thls chart, looklng for the next malor support level on the downslde whlch goes back to
Feb/May'
95 at
560/570.
Gann's geniuswlth
thesecontinuatlon charts
ol
the same contract month, year atteryear, can be trusted to show the truth of the market.
ANNIVERSARY DATES FOR
SOYBEANS IN JULY
HI
JULHI
JULHI
JULHI
JULHI
JUL LO JUL LO JUL2
1990--
7 YEARS****6
1gE9--
Elf4p5***
7
1972-
25 YEARS****9
1976--
21 YEARS**i12
1985-
12 YEARS*****12
1996--
2 YEARS*I*13
1973 ..24 YEARS*****Hl
JUL 13
1981-
16 YEARS**'Hl
JUL 15
1986-
11 YEARS****HI
JUL 19
1993--
4 YEARS**" LO JUL21
1978--
19 YEARS** LO JUL23
1964--
33 YEARS*** LO JUL26
1969-
28 YEARS**** LO JUL26
1988-- I
YEARS****It'g
a
very long llst but you can uselt
to
back up theGANNTIMER reversals. Use any rally during the month to get short for a run down to the weekly support levels glven above.
July and August are both good months for declines that make maior lows so don't be afraid to short into strength. Right now Dec Wheat looks good for
a
rally backto
movlng averagereslstance at 383. Use GANNTIMERS to enter. Wheat daily oscillators at 8 & 9, so don't mlss
lt.
Plus July is seasonal lowafter long decllne. Call the Hotllne ll you need help.
**********************************
PRECNOUS ilETAI.JS UPDATE
It's doubtful that the preclous metals will bottom until the
stock market tops so there's nothing yet that we can do in
these markets except wait lor them to come to life. Silver has
been tradlng sldeways, popplng
up
over daily
movingaverages & then dropping back agaln but looking like it may
be ready any day. Platlnum had the quick runup, then down
but trying on the upslde again. Gold is lust maklng new lows
by a dollar or two but Homeetake Minlng has held the April
low, dlverglng bullishly from the metal
itself. we
need to conilnueto
be on the
sidellnesuntll
we
have somoconfirmatlons, so lust be Patlent-ANNIVERSARY DATES FOR GOLD
IN JULY LO
JULY
2
1985-
12 YEARS***** LOJULY
5
1974-
23 YEARS"**HI JULY
6
1973-
24 YEARS**** LO JULY11
1975--
22 YEARS****Hl
JULY 21 1988- I
YEARS****Hl
JULY 24 1992-
5 YEARS****It's a short list lor thls month but you can use it to reinforce
GANNTIMER reversals. we did make a low last year in Gold ln June, so perhaps the new lows last month can generate
some prlce action. Othenrlse, stand aside.
**********************l*********
New