Poverty Dynamics

Top PDF Poverty Dynamics:

AN INVESTIGATION OF POVERTY DYNAMICS AMONG ETHNIC MINORITIES IN VIETNAM

AN INVESTIGATION OF POVERTY DYNAMICS AMONG ETHNIC MINORITIES IN VIETNAM

In this paper, we follow the spells approach of modeling poverty dynamics as in Bane and Ellwood (1986) and Stevens (1994, 1999). Due to its simplicity, the model is widely applied in studies of poverty dynamics. Yaqub (2002) distinguish between two types of poverty: chronic poverty and transient poverty. Chronic poverty is the status of households that remain poor during a certain period while transient poverty refers to the fluctuation of household status exiting or re-entering poverty in that period. A household can be in status of chronic poverty, poverty exit, poverty re-entry or non-poverty. A transition matrix is used to model such household poverty dynamics. Then, a standard multinomial logit framework can be employed to examine poverty dynamics determinants.
Show more

9 Read more

Poverty Dynamics: The Structurally and Stochastically Poor in Vietnam

Poverty Dynamics: The Structurally and Stochastically Poor in Vietnam

Measurement of poverty dynamics has been long of interest for both development economists and policy makers. The poor is not a homogeneous group. The poor can include the chronically poor who are very poor for a long period and the transiently poor who experience both poverty and non-poverty years during that period (Hulme and Shepherd, 2003). Different poverty alleviation programs should be targeted at different poverty groups (Baulch and Hoddinott, 2000). For example, long-term investment in human capital such as education and healthcare (including cash transfers conditional on child education) should be targeted at the chronically poor. Meanwhile short-term programs such as cash transfers and vocational training should be provided for the transiently poor to help them escape poverty quickly and reduce vulnerability.
Show more

13 Read more

Vulnerability and Poverty Dynamics in Uganda, 1992 1999

Vulnerability and Poverty Dynamics in Uganda, 1992 1999

Vulnerability and Poverty Dynamics in Uganda, 1992-1999 Kasirye, Ibrahim Economic Policy Research Centre, Makerere University.. Online at https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/8557/ MPRA Paper[r]

30 Read more

Active Labour Market Programmes and Poverty Dynamics in Ireland

Active Labour Market Programmes and Poverty Dynamics in Ireland

The LIS has been used extensively to assess poverty dynamics (Callan, 1996; Nolan, 2002; Layte, 2001; Layte et al., 2001; Whelan et al., 2003; Callan et al., 2004, inter alia) over the 1990s, and has been superseded more recently by the EU-SILC. In this research we use household poverty as our primary outcome variable, and define it in a manner as close as possible to that used by the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI). Because we are interested in the effect on standard of living, rather than the more direct effect on labour market outcomes, the focus is appropriately on equivalised household income, rather than individual labour income. We take household net income as reported by the LIS, and equivalise it using the ESRI ‘A’ equivalence scale which treats the first adult in the household as one unit, subsequent adults as 0.66 units and children as 0.33 units. We take 60 per cent of median equivalised income as the default poverty line throughout this paper, where the median is calculated within years across households, weighted according to the LIS household weight. The use of wave-specific medians removes the need for deflating with a price index.
Show more

76 Read more

Finding out of the Determinants of Poverty Dynamics in Indonesia: Evidence from Panel Data

Finding out of the Determinants of Poverty Dynamics in Indonesia: Evidence from Panel Data

Since the poverty incidence can change over time, it is important to conduct the dynamic analysis in order to distinguish between chronic, transient poverty and never poor, to discover the important factors differentiating among groups and also to evaluate the effectiveness of government policies on changing poverty status in Indonesia. This study using recent data contributes mainly on three main parts. First, a valuable contribution to the literature of poverty studies in Indonesia. There has been very little analysis in poverty dynamics in Indonesia, i.e. investigating the welfare movements of a set of households over time; most studies analyse changes in the poverty incidence, depth and severity of poverty at a point in time. Thus, some households that are observed to be below the poverty line at a point in time of cross-sectional data may only be transient poor due to some events. Second, providing information for a deeper understanding of the recent situation of poverty in Indonesia. Analysis of households ’ welfare movement (poverty condition) over time provides useful insights into what determines households ’ movement into and out of poverty and why some households remain poor. Third, a pioneer study of poverty dynamics in Indonesia that is dealing with how socio-economic shocks and risks, government assistance and changes in socio-economic variables can change poverty status in Indonesia. Dercon and Shapiro (2007) surveyed that the impact of risks and shocks on poverty mobility has received relatively limited attentions in the literature of poverty dynamics. Hence, analysis of poverty dynamics provides intuitions into the effects of socio-economic and anti-poverty policies and can help policy makers identify policies that effectively help households escape poverty.
Show more

46 Read more

Welfare in Vietnam During the 1990s: Poverty, Inequality and Poverty Dynamics

Welfare in Vietnam During the 1990s: Poverty, Inequality and Poverty Dynamics

During the 1990s, Vietnam’s economy was transformed through a series of economic, social and political reforms, resulting in an average growth rate over the decade in excess of 6% per annum. This strong growth performance was accompanied by a dramatic fall in the incidence of consumption per capita poverty. This paper examines the changes in poverty and poverty dynamics over the 1990s using a nationally representative panel of households surveyed in 1992-93 and 1997-98. We analyse how robust the reduction in poverty is to the methods used to measure poverty. We find that regardless of where the poverty line is drawn, consumption poverty fell between 1992-93 and 1997-98, but that the extent of this fall is sensitive to the choice of poverty line. We also examine changes in the distribution of living standards over time, finding that the fall in poverty was accompanied by a rise in inequality, with some sub- groups of the population failing to share equally in the strong growth of the country. Finally, we examine rural poverty dynamics, presenting transition matrices of movements in and out of poverty over time and estimating a model of consumption change. We find that regional differences are important, as are access to key institutions and infrastructure, and education. We also find that shifts in employment and production patterns, especially of rice, which we argue to be induced by the economic reform process, are strongly related to changes in living standards over time.
Show more

36 Read more

Poverty Dynamics in Rural Vietnam: Winners and Losers During Reform

Poverty Dynamics in Rural Vietnam: Winners and Losers During Reform

This paper analyses poverty dynamics in Vietnam during the ‘Doi Moi’ renovation period and tries to identify the winners and losers from the economic and trade reform process implemented in Vietnam in the late 1980s. Our results are based on data available for a panel of 3494 rural households interviewed in 1992-93 and 1997-98. We find that movements in and out of poverty between the two periods vary substantially across population subgroups, suggesting that not everyone benefited equally from the process of reform. We model poverty dynamics using a multinomial logit model that explains movements in and out of poverty between the two periods of time in terms of household characteristics, characteristics directly related to the economic reforms and changes in the returns to those characteristics. The results suggest that changes in household poverty status in Vietnam are correlated with geographic location, access to key institutions and infrastructure, the education level of the head and spouse, as well as changes induced by the economic reform. These results are robust to shifts in the poverty line and changes in model specification. The paper forms part of a wider study funded by the UK Department for International Development that examines the impact of trade reform and trade shocks on household poverty dynamics.
Show more

48 Read more

Household Poverty Dynamics in Malawi

Household Poverty Dynamics in Malawi

It is also possible to use a spells approach even when the time dimension is shorter. Bhidea and Mehta (2003) based on a two wave panel data for India covering the period 1970/71 to 1980/81. Carter and May (1999) with a two wave panel for Kwa-zulu Natal, South Africa also modelled movements into and out of poverty while Okrasa (1999) estimates logit equations for both the likelihood that a household is vulnerable and that it is chronically poor in Poland. However, Jalan and Ravallion (2000) model the factors associated with each spell using a censored quantile regression model. Other studies have modelled income dynamics of households over time these include Dercon (2003) and Fields et al (2001). In practice some of these different approaches complement each other and in this paper I apply the biprobit model to study the determinants of poverty dynamics in Malawi.
Show more

17 Read more

Assets and domestic units: methodological challenges for longitudinal studies of poverty dynamics

Assets and domestic units: methodological challenges for longitudinal studies of poverty dynamics

machines, livestock, a better home and so on. Changing assets can be a more sensitive measure to reductions in poverty than, for example, changes to diet. Liverpool-Tasie and Winter-Nelson found from panel data in Ethiopia that asset-based measures of wealth were much better at predicting future expenditure and asset portfolios than expen- diture-based measures of wealth (Liverpool-Tasiea and Winter-Nelson 2011). Carter and Lybbert (2012), exploring panel data from Burkina Faso in the mid-1980s, found two di ff erent responses to weather shocks with respect to assets that neatly capture the signi fi cance and role of assets in poverty dynamics. They observed that households who were poor with respect to their productive assets (herd sizes of less than 15.5 Tropical Livestock Units – TLU) conserved their assets, and experienced declines in every-day consumption due to weather shocks. These they call ‘ asset smoothers ’ . Conversely those who were productive asset rich (more than 24.1 TLU) were able to o ff set consump- tion declines with herd sales, and readily did so (these were consumption smoothers). Productive assets therefore are a crucial means of becoming wealthy and people save in order to invest in them.
Show more

22 Read more

Short-term poverty dynamics of rural households:  Evidence from Central Sulawesi, Indonesia

Short-term poverty dynamics of rural households: Evidence from Central Sulawesi, Indonesia

As Baulch & Hoddinott (2000) point out, it is crucial that studies on poverty dynamics account for possibil- ities of measurement error. This is particularly impor- tant as the results for poverty categories can be biased, especially in a short-term analysis. It might seem that households move into and out of poverty even if their poverty status actually remains the same. This is espe- cially true for those households with expenditures close to the poverty line. Thus, it is clear that the measurement error in the income (expenditure) variable might a ff ect the extent of mobility. How either side of the equation actually a ff ects mobility is less clear: on the one hand, the measurement error will depend on the accuracy with which a household reports its income / expenditures over time. On the other hand, its accuracy also depends on how the measurement error varies among households with di ff erent income / consumption levels at any point in time (Scott, 2000). Nevertheless, due to measurement error in the income / expenditure welfare measure, it is likely that the degree of poverty mobility is overstated (Dercon & Shapiro, 2007).
Show more

15 Read more

Moving in and out of Poverty: the Impact of Welfare Regimes on Poverty Dynamics in the EU  EPAG Working Paper 30, 2002

Moving in and out of Poverty: the Impact of Welfare Regimes on Poverty Dynamics in the EU EPAG Working Paper 30, 2002

One of the primary reasons for the lack of attention given to poverty dynamics is the shortage of suitable data in the form of panel surveys of income information. These data have been available in the US, Germany, Great Britain and the Netherlands for some time, but have become available only recently for a larger number of countries in the form of the European Community Household Panel Survey (ECHP). In this paper we take advantage of the availability of five waves of these data to ask three important questions about poverty persistence and dynamics in E.U countries: first, is poverty a more common experience when viewed longitudinally rather than cross-sectionally and how is this affected by the income poverty line used? Second, can we identify a tendency toward poverty persistence and does this vary in its extent across countries? Third and lastly, what types of events are more likely to lead to entry into and exit from poverty and does the importance of these events differ between countries? The paper opens with a discussion of the importance of dynamic poverty research before attempting to lay out theoretically what factors should influence poverty moves and in particular, the role of different welfare regimes. In the third section we review the poverty dynamics literature and discuss the methodological choices made there before outlining our own approach. This is followed by an overview of the ECHP data in the fourth section, before we turn in sections five and six to the empirical analysis of our three questions. In section seven we attempt to summarize the findings of the paper and extract some general conclusions.
Show more

27 Read more

Poverty and Poverty Dynamics in Rural Ethiopia

Poverty and Poverty Dynamics in Rural Ethiopia

Even though these regression trees differ between rounds, as a result of seasonality and other factors, a broad pattern emerges showing that household demographics and physical capital endowments matter. Poorer households have more members 18 , with a higher mean age, a higher dependency ratio, and an older household head. Furthermore, these households have less land to their disposal, own less assets and key livestock, such as bulls, and earn less from crop and livestock sales. These broad trends are in accordance with the findings of Bigsten et al (2003) who ran OLS and household fixed effects regressions on per capita expenditure for rural households in the same period (Bigsten et al 2003: 93, 94). As these correlates of poverty are only with respect to households that were poor in a certain period, one cannot make any conclusions regarding the characteristics of households that move out or remain in poverty over time. The next section explores these determinants of a household’s poverty dynamics.
Show more

33 Read more

Remittance inflows and poverty dynamics in South Africa: An empirical investigation

Remittance inflows and poverty dynamics in South Africa: An empirical investigation

Gross domestic product per capita has an insignificant impact on poverty reduction. The possible explanation in South Africa is the high income inequality with a 63% gini index recorded in 2014 (World Bank, 2018). This makes real gross domestic product a less reliable measure of welfare as the real income could be in the hands of a few. Inflation leads to high poverty levels when Pov1 (household consumption expenditure) is used as a proxy in the long run and the short run. This finding is supported in the literature as an increase in prices erodes the purchasing power of income earned by the poor and makes them worse off. The error correction model [ECM (-1)] is 76%. Whenever there is a disequilibrium in the economy, it takes one year and three months to return to equilibrium.
Show more

30 Read more

Poverty Dynamics in Peru 2001 2003: A Probit Model Analysis

Poverty Dynamics in Peru 2001 2003: A Probit Model Analysis

Por ejemplo, para el análisis de entrada a la pobreza, existe mayor probabilidad de entrar a la pobreza si el hogar tiene un número alto de miembros, una caída en sus perceptores, pierde[r]

39 Read more

Monitoring Poverty Trends and Exploring Poverty Dynamics in Ireland

Monitoring Poverty Trends and Exploring Poverty Dynamics in Ireland ESRI Policy Series No 41 June 2001

Table 4.14: Risk of Household Falling Below 40 Per Cent Relative Income Poverty Line by Presence of Children and Age of Household Reference Person, Living in Ireland Surveys 1994, 1997 a[r]

122 Read more

Using Asset Poverty Measures to Understand Poverty Dynamics, Poverty Traps and Farmer Behavior in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Focus on Rural Ethiopia

Using Asset Poverty Measures to Understand Poverty Dynamics, Poverty Traps and Farmer Behavior in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Focus on Rural Ethiopia

various poverty reduction efforts. For example, with regard to formal credit, microfinance is often touted as a practical means of helping rural poor overcome capital constraints, and invest in new technology. This dissertation (in chapter 3) asks whether microfinance has a differential impact on use of improved technology and on consumption and asset growth depending on the family’s asset poverty status. The analysis finds no relationship between participation in microfinance programs and the use of modern technologies for the poorest households. Among the relatively less poor households, microfinance has a positive direct effect on both consumption and asset growth as well as on the use of modern technology. While households using fertilizer tend to enjoy more rapid consumption growth and asset accumulation, microfinance has no effect on the likelihood of fertilizer use among the poorest households. This has direct policy implication as since modern technology use could be a pathway out of persistent poverty, findings reveal that current formal credit programs are not serving the poorest households in this endeavor. The findings of chapter 3 confirm the variation in constraints faced by different classes of poor households and suggest the value of asset based poverty classifications in identifying target groups.
Show more

219 Read more

Active Labour Market Programmes and Poverty Dynamics in Ireland: 1994 2001

Active Labour Market Programmes and Poverty Dynamics in Ireland: 1994 2001

Active Labour Market Policies, which provide training and subsidised employment to the unemployed, are an important part of Ireland’s welfare state. While a good deal of existing research is concerned with the effect of these policies on employment chances and on wage rates, none addresses the connection between poverty and ALMPs: do these policies have an effect on poverty? That is, first, to what extent do these policies serve the low-income population, as a consequence of and in addition to their focus on those in precarious labour market situations? Second, to what extent do these policies function to lift people out of poverty in the medium term? To address these issues we use longitu- dinal data from the Living in Ireland survey (1994–2001) and examine how respondents’ situation in one year predicts participation in employment and training schemes in the next year, and then how participation in these schemes affects poverty status in the fol- lowing year. Participants on both sorts of schemes are much poorer than the population average, and those on employment schemes (but not training schemes) are even poorer than one would expect given their observed characteristics. Employment schemes and training schemes serve different purposes and different populations. A conventional lo- gistic regression analysis seems to suggest that employment schemes (but not training schemes) positively increase the risk of poverty in the following year. This finding is not considered reliable, but rather it reflects the selection processes whereby those on employment schemes are in particularly vulnerable situations, in respects that are not picked up in the data set. A more rigorous analysis, using propensity score matching, reveals that employment schemes are neutral on poverty risk. Training schemes have a weak but insignificant protective effect.
Show more

53 Read more

Social Crisis, Terrorism and Food Poverty Dynamics: Evidence from Northern Nigeria

Social Crisis, Terrorism and Food Poverty Dynamics: Evidence from Northern Nigeria

Food security has become an issue of global concern in the recent time. Nigeria, with her huge endowed natural and human resources is not spared. However, food poverty in Northern Nigeria has come under threats since the emergence of series of attacks by a terrorist sect called ‘Boko Haram’ (BH). Since the emergence of the BH activities in Nigeria, sectors with direct impact on the wellbeing of the people has been negatively affected. The aim of this paper is therefore to examine the various ways in which the activities of BH have threatened food security and worsens food poverty in Northern zones (North West, North Central and North East) of Nigeria where the sects are dominating and imposing demeaning menace using 2010 Nigerian Living Standard Survey (NLSS) data. The data is analyzed using descriptive statistics and ordered probit. The study used mean food per capita expenditure to generate the poverty line and ordered the households into three categories; food poor, moderately food poor and food non poor. The estimate revealed that the mean food per capita expenditure (annually) was ₦25524.36 ($128.23) 1 . The study further established that 84.85%
Show more

8 Read more

Household welfare and poverty dynamics in Burkina Faso : empirical evidence from household surveys

Household welfare and poverty dynamics in Burkina Faso : empirical evidence from household surveys

dynamics and evolution of welfare are assessed in Section IV: the results suggest rising urban poverty accompanied with rapidly increasing income inequality, persistence of larg[r]

38 Read more

Growth, inequality and poverty dynamics in Mexico

Growth, inequality and poverty dynamics in Mexico

those faced by the nation as a whole. In other words, the purchasing power of the poor in Mexico decreased more rapidly over time than that of average Mexicans. Therefore, if we adjust real incomes in Mexico to the inflation rate underlying the poverty line, we end up with income growth rates that are actually negative. We were able to corroborate all this information in the 2012 CONEVAL’s Report of the Evolution of Social Develop- ment Policy in Mexico (CONEVAL 2013, pp 22–23), where it is clearly explained and shown that the main reason for the differential evolution of price levels between the offi- cial poverty lines and the CPI has been the continuous rise in the prices of food since 2008. Figure 2 shows this phenomenon in Mexico, from January 2007 to May 2015, by plotting the evolution of the value of the food baskets for the poor in the rural and urban areas, as well as that of the CPI, all at constant prices of August 2008. It is possible to see in the figure that, after September 2008, the rate at which food prices increase for the poor has been much faster than the inflation rate for the country as a whole and the wid- ening gaps between these indicators have been evidently worsening since January 2012.
Show more

25 Read more

Show all 10000 documents...