Real-time forecasts for PCE inflation
PCE and CPI inflation differentials: converting inflation forecasts
... 14 forecasts of the overall inflation differential and all 14 forecasts of the core inflation differential are presented in the Model Speci- ...the forecasts estimated by models in this ...
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Real Time Data Revisions and the PCE Measure of Inflation
... relevant time-frame through the use of ...to inflation, the Federal Reserve might look at historical periods that contain inflation similar to the current level of ...
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Real Time Data Revisions and the PCE Measure of Inflation
... relevant time-frame through the use of ...to inflation, the Federal Reserve might look at historical periods that contain inflation similar to the current level of ...
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Real time forecasts of inflation: the role of financial variables
... continuous time and not subject to revisions, unlike most of the hard ...produce real-time forecasts of in‡ation that are updated with the latest market ...and forecasts extracted from ...
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The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time
... on Real Time Data Analysis, the Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research, as well as at the annual meetings of the American Economics Association, the European Economics Association and the Canadian ...
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An evaluation of inflation forecasts from surveys using real-time data
... the inflation rate as it is successively revised across all the vintages since its initial ...the inflation rate between 1973:Q1 and 1974:Q1. The inflation rate for this period was initially released ...
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Evaluating real-time forecasts in real-time
... compare forecasts of the current value of macroeconomic variables such as GDP, when due to regular revisions we know the true value only much later in time and when benchmark revisions may fundamentally ...
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Trimmed mean PCE inflation
... monthly inflation that is “durable” as opposed to “fleeting”, that represents “signal” rather than “noise”, corresponds to what most economists call core ...Core inflation, understood in this way, ...
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Real-Time Forecasts of the Real Price of Oil
... the real-time forecasting results with results for the same forecasting models based on ex-post revised ...on real-time ...that real-time forecasts may be more accurate if ...
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Forecasting Inflation in Real Time
... GSCI inflation -0.513 0.008 0.032 -0.476 -0.006 -0.011 -0.523 0.013 0.042 CPI inflation -0.461 0.12 -0.111 -0.158 -0.294 -0.080 -0.267 -0.153 -0.085 PCE inflation -0.336 -0.048 -0.099 -0.233 ...
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Forecasting inflation in real-time
... The 4 quarter forecast horizon results do not apply at the 8 quarter forecast horizon. Now none of 12 output gap models performs better than the benchmark models. At the same time the results indicate that the ...
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Estimating real and nominal term structures using Treasury yields, inflation, inflation forecasts, and inflation swap rates
... ous time stochastic processes, the processes’ parameters often are difficult to estimate because volatilities may not be directly ...a time series. Using discrete time GARCH processes al- leviates this ...
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Evaluating inflation forecasts
... over time might lead one to think that, even though the bias tests don’t show bias over the entire sample period, one could run the bias regression over different subsamples of the data, modify the ...
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Trend-cycle decomposition of output and euro area inflation forecasts: a real-time approach based on model combination
... in real-time is associated with a large ...gives time-varying weights depending on the uncertainty associated with the output gap is considerably less affected by GDP data ...
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Revisions to PCE inflation measures: implications for monetary policy
... overall PCE inflation, which happened to have a marginal zero-mean ...as forecasts of the latest available data (or possibly the last vintage before a benchmark revision ...worse forecasts ...
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Real-time inflation forecasting in a changing world
... revisits inflation forecasting using reduced form Phillips curve forecasts, ...i.e., inflation forecasts using activity and expectations ...of inflation, a host of real activity ...
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Component-smoothed Inflation: Estimating the Persistent Component of Inflation in Real Time
... year-ended inflation for the component-smoothed inflation measure, the CPI ex volatiles series and the trimmed ...underlying inflation over our sample, there are some notable ...component-smoothed ...
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Ethiopia: Updated Inflation Forecasts
... annual inflation for all the four cases. Because of the high past inflation and stable world prices, domestic prices adjust towards long run equilibrium in all four scenarios during ...makes ...
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Irrational Bias in Inflation Forecasts
... the real interest rate, −r t , and biases from the SPF and the Green Book to highlight their negative ...the real interest rate (−r t ), implying that its level is closely connected with shifts in the ...
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Ethiopia: Updated Inflation Forecasts
... annual inflation for all the four cases. Because of the high past inflation and stable world prices, domestic prices adjust towards long run equilibrium in all four scenarios during ...makes ...
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