seasonal forecasts
Utility of dynamical seasonal forecasts in predicting crop yield
... season. Seasonal forecasts, based on coupled ocean–atmosphere climate models, are now available up to 6 mo in advance from a number of operational meteorological cen- tres around the ...world. ...
12
Seasonal forecasts of droughts in African basins using the Standardized Precipitation Index
... with typical values of 3, 6 and 12 months. The flexibility of the accumulation in different time periods allows a range of meteorological, agricultural and hydrological applications. However, the time responses to ...
15
The potential value of seasonal forecasts in a changing climate in southern Africa
... the seasonal forecasts may not fully represent the condi- tions of a local farmer ...the forecasts also impacts on the absolute accuracy of the fore- ...abilistic forecasts might be more ...
14
Global meteorological drought – Part 2: Seasonal forecasts
... of seasonal forecasts in such a system is mainly depen- dent on the actual predictability of drought conditions, which are in turn dependent on the predictability of precipitation (Gianotti et ...Dynamical ...
10
Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe?
... of seasonal streamflow forecasts for applications such as nav- igation (Meißner et ...on seasonal timescales beyond snowmelt- driven spring floods, as well as the fact that seasonal ...
16
Significant spatial patterns from the GCM seasonal forecasts of global precipitation
... verifying forecasts at one grid cell, attention also needs to be paid to forecasts at sur- rounding grid ...between forecasts and observations can be surrounded by grid cells with similarly high ...
16
Verification of ECMWF System 4 for seasonal hydrological forecasting in a northern climate
... volume, seasonal forecasts can help to establish a yearly ...hydrological forecasts often rely on past observations of streamflow or meteorological ...meteorological forecasts produced by ...
16
Seasonal streamflow forecasts for Europe – Part 2: Sources of skill
... in seasonal hydrological forecasts for ...the seasonal forecast system 4 (S4) of the European Centre for Medium- Range Weather Forecasts ...precipitation forecasts contain considerable ...
21
Downscaling of seasonal soil moisture forecasts using satellite data
... moisture forecasts from the seasonal ensemble prediction forecasting system of the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) is presented in this ...moisture forecasts from ...
7
Should seasonal rainfall forecasts be used for flood preparedness?
... to seasonal total rainfall forecasts, for much of Sub-Saharan ...2010). Seasonal forecasts of soil moisture could give a useful indication of flood risk in dry regions of Africa ...these ...
8
Hydrological drought forecasting and skill assessment for the Limpopo River basin, southern Africa
... meteorological forecasts from the most recent sea- sonal forecasting system at ECMWF (S4) are used to force the hydrological ...ensemble seasonal forecasts are initialised on the 1st of each month ...
17
Predicting optimum crop designs using crop models and seasonal climate forecasts
... Multiple forecasts are run for a given start time, called an ensemble, in order to provide an indication of the uncertainty of the future evolution of the climate system ...thirty-three forecasts that ...
13
Developing a global operational seasonal hydro-meteorological forecasting system: GloFAS-Seasonal v1.0
... initiatives. Seasonal forecasts are designed to pro- vide early indications of such events weeks or even months in advance, but seasonal forecasts for hydrological variables at large or global ...
20
Enabling Conditions for Improved Use of Seasonal Climate Forecast in Arid and Semi Arid Baringo County—Kenya
... that seasonal climate forecasts if accessed at the right time and used well, are a potential tool that can assist pastoralists in coping and adapting to variable climate conditions [1] [2] ...beyond ...
14
Bias correcting precipitation forecasts to improve the skill of seasonal streamflow forecasts
... use seasonal meteorological forecasts as input to a hydrological ...conditions, seasonal predictions of atmospheric variables and the predictability information contained in large-scale climate ...
18
A national scale seasonal hydrological forecast system: development and evaluation over Britain
... using seasonal rainfall forecasts provided by the Met Office’s GloSea5 model is explored in more detail ...rainfall forecasts are combined with hydrological modelling tools to provide estimates of ...
11
Seasonal streamflow forecasts in the Ahlergaarde catchment, Denmark: the effect of preprocessing and post processing on skill and statistical consistency
... streamflow forecasts on the skill and statistical consistency of monthly stream- flow and yearly minimum daily flow ...meteorological seasonal forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range ...
17
Assessing the value of seasonal climate forecasts for decision‐making
... climate forecasts (Hansen, ...to seasonal forecasts as well as the overall value that might be derived from their use (Vogel & O'Brien, ...translating forecasts into beneficial ...
19
Evaluation of Eta Model seasonal precipitation forecasts over South America
... Abstract. Seasonal forecasts run by the Eta Model over South America were evaluated with respect to precipitation predictability at different time scales, seasonal, monthly and weekly for one-year ...
19
Exploring the use of seasonal climate forecasts in Europe through expert elicitation
... Each of these chains corresponds to different uses of seasonal and sub-seasonal forecasts in three distinct areas of activity and decision-making processes within EDF (i.e. system operation managers, ...
9