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Forecasting and Backtesting of VaR in International Dry Bulk Shipping Market under Skewed Distributions

Forecasting and Backtesting of VaR in International Dry Bulk Shipping Market under Skewed Distributions

Third, three alternative distributions (SGED, HYP and SST) generally show better accuracy than commonly used distributions. With HYP distribution, the backtesting results show that for 14 times the P values are rejected at the 1% sig- nificance and 6 times at the 5% significance level among the 96 cases, accounting for about 20%. HYP, GHST, NIG distributions are all in the GH family, but GHYP outperforms the other two distinctively. With SGED distribution, the backtesting results show that for 9 times the P values are rejected at the 1% sig- nificance level, and 11 times at the 5% significance level, accounting for 17%. With SST distribution, the backtesting results show that for 11 times the P values are rejected at the 1% significance level, and 6 times at the 5% significance level, accounting for 17%, which displays the best accuracy on four samples. Risk pre- diction models based on these three distributions perform relatively well in the dry bulk shipping market, which provides empirical evidence for risk managers that they can consider SGED, HYP or SST distribution to model and forecast risks.

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A game theory competition analysis of quadropolistic liner container shipping market

A game theory competition analysis of quadropolistic liner container shipping market

Nowadays, the rationale behind strategic cooperation in the liner container shipping business is efficient capacity utilisation of the fleets owned by individual shipping liners by aiming to prevent the negative impacts of the ship size enlargement trend. The research effort on the capacity deployment is associated with the recent developments of the liner shipping. One of the main obstacles in the liner container shipping industry is the regulatory enforcement of the International Maritime organization (IMO). The energy efficiency, emission, and sustainability regulations of IMO required significant operational effort and investment of the shipping liners in order to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, to save energy and to contribute to the marine sustainability. Another obstacle that the industry faces is the overcapacity of ship capacity supply to the market due to the enlargement of the ship size which also causes operational problems for the ports such as draft, handling and port traffic. In addition, instability of bunker prices drives the innovation requirements for energy efficiency of existing marine and structural systems and available bunkering sources. Due to the capacity oversupply, freight rates in low levels and threatens the financial stability of the liner shipping companies. All these obstacles have a huge influence on the liner shipping competition outcomes for global trade and competitiveness level of the players in the liner shipping market.

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Shipping Market Financing: Special Features and the Impact of Basel III

Shipping Market Financing: Special Features and the Impact of Basel III

Regardless of the type of goods transported, the shipping market is distinguished into four sub-markets (Stopford 1997) [1], namely the shipbuilding market, the freight market (commercial exploitation of ships), the sale and purchase market (S&P, second-hand ships) and the demolition market, where, depending on the strategic planning of the maritime company and the shipping market conditions prevailing from time to time, a ship (main asset) reaches the end of its life-cycle. These sub- markets are directly interrelated and any developments in one of them may have an impact on one or more of the others, e.g. an increase in freight rates is bound to affect both the S&P market and the shipbuilding market (Kavussanos and Alizadeh 2002) [2], given that supply actors have positive expectations of a further increase in demand and, by extension, of improved financial results in the industry. In implementing their investment plans (whether relating to shipbuilding or the purchase of second-hand ships), supply actors seek borrowing primarily from the banks, which in turn gain knowledge of the prevailing market conditions and assess any positive expectations extremely carefully, given the size of borrowing in the shipping sector, which is a capital-intensive market.

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Investor Sentiment for Real Assets: The Case of Dry Bulk Shipping Market*

Investor Sentiment for Real Assets: The Case of Dry Bulk Shipping Market*

short-sales constraints, irrational investors are more likely to participate in the market and add liquidity when they are optimistic. Short-sales constraints are even more important in the shipping markets, as it is difficult and costly for participants to establish short positions on vessels. Baker and Wurgler (2006, 2007) capture market liquidity by the ratio of trading volume to the number of shares listed on the New York Stock Exchange; whereas Baker et al. (2012) use the ratio of total dollar volume over a year to the total capitalization at the end of the previous year. However, liquidity is an elusive notion (Amihud, 2002; Pastor and Stambaugh, 2003) which has been represented by various empirical measures in the literature 4 . Our choice of liquidity measure is driven by data availability at a monthly frequency; therefore, we represent shipping market liquidity in terms of the turnover ratio. The turnover ratio (TURN) measures the activity in the sale and purchase market for second- hand vessels in terms of total number of vessels available in the market:

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Assessment of Vietnam’s capacity and commitment to ratify and implement the International Convention on Oil Pollution Preparedness, Response and Co-Operation (OPRC), 1990

Assessment of Vietnam’s capacity and commitment to ratify and implement the International Convention on Oil Pollution Preparedness, Response and Co-Operation (OPRC), 1990

Taking into consideration the conditions of the market, which have been similarly highlighted from the UNCTAD, Danish Ship Finance and BIMCO shipping market analysis, yet their forecasted market outcomes differ, while BIMCO expects the market to neither worsen or improve in 2017, the Danish Ship Finance forecasts growth on intra-regional trade benefiting liners over tonnage providers. Lastly the UNCTAD report highlights further consolidations with the focus on reducing transit times and increasing reliability but at the expense of services and port calls. In addition to transit time, the top 20 container shipping lines all offer additional services such as inland transport, 80% of which provide documentation & attending to customs formalities. 60% offer warehousing and supply chain planning and 70% assisting with vendor management. 50% provide logistics activity at the customer and supplier premises and a high 25% providing financial services (Baird, 2011)

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Research on cold chain in food industry in China

Research on cold chain in food industry in China

The shipping industry is a very capital-intensive industry where capital payments dominate a ship-owner’s cash flow and important financial decisions 53 . The history of ship financing mirrors that of the history and evolution of ship ownership structures. As the world economy grew in the 1950s and 1960s there was a long phase of charter-backed financing: with the rapid growth of the industrial economies in Europe and Japan, industrial shippers seeking new and cheaper raw material sources overseas would offer long time charters as an incentive, which the owner would use as cash-flow collateral for a loan to buy the ship. This was followed by new forms of asset-backed finance during the very volatile markets of the 1980s: here the shipping market cycle bottomed out in the mid-1980s, the distressed sales created opportunities for “asset play”, that is buying ships cheaply and selling them at a higher price. Financing in the 1990s shifted to public offerings and corporate lending as shipping companies shifted to corporate ownership structures (Stopford, 2000).

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Analysis of economic impact of MARPOL Annex IX on different types of ship / s by Konoplev Mikhail Alexandrovich.

Analysis of economic impact of MARPOL Annex IX on different types of ship / s by Konoplev Mikhail Alexandrovich.

shipping market is very difficult to get in and get out. The price of buying a new ship is very high. If one wants to buy a new ship, he will mostly find it is a big problem to get so much money. Some people choose to loan the money from banks, and they will have a heavy burden to give back the money. Some people rent the ship from the bank for a long-term contract, e.g. 20 years. Meanwhile, a new ship needs some time to build, usually 1 or 2 years. This means that when we see the market is very good, it is difficult to get new ships immediately. However, it is difficult to forecast the market in 2 years later when we get the ship actually. When the time the market is not so good, the ships can not disappear at once. Ships also need time to be demolished, for the ship breakers have limited capacity. Furthermore, the shipping market is always changing. Many people want to find out the regulation of the cycle between the up and down of the market. But, up to now, no one has found it. When we go back to the history, we will find every cycle is different.

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The Financial and Economic Crisis, Its Impacts on the Shipping Industry, Lessons to Learn: The Container Ships Market Analysis

The Financial and Economic Crisis, Its Impacts on the Shipping Industry, Lessons to Learn: The Container Ships Market Analysis

[1]. The world is more dependent on it than ever. As such, the industry is influenced by factors such as economy, trade, production, consumption, politics, financing and technology that drive the demand and supply of manu- factured goods, raw materials and shipping services. A drastic decline of freight rates and time charter or in the fore mentioned factors, is almost immediately visible throughout the shipping market. For the first time since 1982, the world’s GDP decreased by 2.2% while the international trade rate dropped by 14.4% [2]. Therefore, the curtailment of economic activities and consumption has resulted in a drop of trade volumes and low demand for maritime transport. Just as the shipping industry enjoyed a spectacular booming during the mid-2000s when the global economy performed well; its fortunes were also inextricably related to the recent slump in the global economy. It is therefore not surprising that the shipping market has suffered along with the global financial and economic crisis.

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IMO 2020 sulfur cap: green investment in shipping industry

IMO 2020 sulfur cap: green investment in shipping industry

determined. Shipowners have to prudently select and compare between the technological investment options available for installation on ships, their additional cost for retrofitting and operational expenses in comparison to return on investment (ROI) and payback period (PBP). Regard to capital investment, debt remains the cheapest form of financing in the shipping market (Syriouplos, 2010). Green loans or sustainability link loans are introduced by leading shipping investment banks, e.g. BNP Paribas Asia, for supporting shipping companies in project finance to meet regulatory sulfur emission standards coming in effect 2020. The main incentive of green loan for shipping companies is the improvement in environmental, social and governance (ESG) rating or companies key performance indicator (KPI) performance linked with discounting in loan interest premiums (Dupius & Parrot, 2019).

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Research on cold chain in food industry in China

Research on cold chain in food industry in China

Shipping plays a vital role in world trade and economy. Nowadays, although a certain amount of the world trade is transported by truck, rail, airplane etc, most is carried by ships. It was estimated that 90 per cent of world trade goods in volume are shipped by sea (Ma, 2004, p. 11). It could be said that shipping is a bridge between world trade and industrial production. Consequently, the demand for international maritime transport is derived from the trade of goods. As the characteristics of world trade fluctuate and are cyclical, this feature is also present in the shipping market. To avoid large risks with a huge investment in expensive ships, shipowners are in a great need of forecasting information on the shipping market. Not only shipowners but many other organisations from shipbrokers to charterers, farmers to industrialists etc. require information on the development of the shipping market for making decisions which affect the future of their organisations.

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Asset valuation in dry bulk shipping

Asset valuation in dry bulk shipping

that the bulk of volatility in the FFA basis can be attributed to expectations about future physical market conditions rather than expectations about future risk premia, as is commonly suggested in the commodity markets literature. Despite this finding, though, there appears to be a bias in FFA rates in the form of both a strong momentum effect and significant predictability of risk premia by lagged price-based signals and economic variables that reflect recent changes in the physical market conditions. An additional interesting finding is the evidence of “contango” in the FFA market. The evidence of bias in FFA rates is also supported by the results of three econometric tests which suggest rejection of the unbiased expectations hypothesis. We further contribute to the literature by developing an asset pricing framework that can explain both the existence of momentum and the documented sort of predictability of future risk premia. Importantly, our dynamic framework can simultaneously account for both the familiar “hedging pressure” feature – the rational dimension – and a heterogeneous beliefs explanation – the irrational dimension. The proposed model incorporates three types of traders: ship owners, charterers, and speculators. The distinct feature of our framework is that, apart from having ‒ as is standard in the literature ‒ different objective functions, agents might also differ in the way they form expectations about future market conditions. Specifically, we develop an asymmetric information environment where speculators suffer from a behavioural bias known as “the law of small numbers” ‒ or, equivalently, “reversion to the mean” or “gambler’s fallacy”. Accordingly, we illustrate formally that, to simultaneously match the observed empirical regularities, one must depart from the rational expectations benchmark of the model. To the best of our knowledge, the FFA market had never been examined from the perspective of a structural, behavioural economic model before. In addition, we contribute to the generic commodity finance literature by incorporating explicitly the behavioural dimension in the formation of derivative contracts rates.

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II. O VERVIEW OF XML/EDI S YSTEM

II. O VERVIEW OF XML/EDI S YSTEM

At next step, the input data are loaded on Web server which acts as Agent, and the shipping request DTD in Global Repository is referred, XML parser parses and proves the data. If the error is happened while XML parser is checking, the error message is displayed on Web browser of the sender. If the shipping request is to be verified by the DTD and XML parser, then the input data is transformed into XML element and the XML instance is generated. Finally, the generated XML instance is stored into Global Repository. The scenario of Shipping Request XML/EDI system using XML is described in Fig 6.

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Research of protectionism in shipping policy

Research of protectionism in shipping policy

The purpose of this exercise is to give some guidance to Safety Officers and Representatives on the way and nature that an accident and/or occurrence should be conducted in other that they may comply with whatever domestic regulations regarding the above. Nevertheless, we must first of all define what an accident is and one such description would be "an unlooked for and unwanted occurrence that may or may not result in personal injury to one or more persons. Yet another definition that is sometimes used in one that at first sight may appear to be somewhat philosophical but in actual fact it is absolutely correct in ninety-nine percent of all accidents and serious occurrences. The definition states that "an accident is the manifestation of the last link in the chain of events." When you bear in mind that almost all accidents occur because of domino or "knock on" effects of a series of mistakes or departures from the normal operations by a person or group of persons, you will see that the definition makes sense and that a good investigator is not so concerned with the accident as with the chain of events that led up to it, because of that chain would have been broken then the accident would not have occurred. Enough, however, for the meantime of the philosophi­ cal angle, we turn now and examine those peculiar things concerned with inquiries into shipping casualties.

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Maritime administration and maritime law in Somalia

Maritime administration and maritime law in Somalia

As a coastal and Port State, Tanzania shares a lot of common shipping and maritime interests with neighbouring states, and in this case it is desirable, at least to a certain extent, to find some way by which its maritime legislation may be coordinated and harmonized with that of its neighbours. After the demise of the East African Community and its institutions, at least the coordination that had existed through the various institutions like the East African Harbours Corporation, the East African Railways Corporation, the East African Inland Water Transport Act, etc. also ceased to exist and therefore no official coordination of a similar structure existed any more. With those countries whose coastline is adjacent to that of Tanzania, like Kenya to the North and even Somalia and Mozambique to the South; also those^countries opposite to Tanzania and particularly the Indian Ocean islands off the East African Coast who also share common shipping and maritime interests with Tanzania, this coordination could be in matters relating to safety of navigation, maritime services (such as aids to navigation), towage, marine pollution,

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Agribusiness innovation: A pathway to sustainable economic growth in Africa

Agribusiness innovation: A pathway to sustainable economic growth in Africa

Efforts to increase yield, improve processing methods and market demand are underway. The previous President Jonathan and his Minister of Agriculture, worked under the former transformation agenda, to introduce policies to encourage the blending of cassava flour with imported cereals. For example, a blending ratio of up to 40% is expected by the year 2015 for cassava inclusion in bread making, from the current 20%. In addition, in 2012, an agreement between Nigeria and China indicated that, Nigeria will supply at least 1 million (MT) of cassava dried chips annually, while there is an agreement between Nigeria and Australia to supply 500, 000 MT (FAO, 2012). However, Nigeria faces stiff competition as Thailand has a well- established export market with China and continues its global market dominance. In view of this fact, Nigeria will need to pursue an aggressive policy that targets domestic and regional market while strengthening export market trade by improving the quality of cassava products. To address this, one option for Nigeria could be to increase bioethanol production.

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Strategies in “Shipping Business Management”

Strategies in “Shipping Business Management”

The CEO of “Overseas Shipholding Group” (in 2006) argued that in order for one to make money in shipping, he/she has to run: safe-secure-reliable ships- and invest every year so that to do things better: there is, out there, a race to quality . He added that shipping, as time went-by, became more professional, and more demanding. It needs: scale-systems-well-trained-staff and continuous- improvements. This will favor the public and transparent companies. But, “ good private companies will be able to compete , as they always did ”… So, there is al- ways a place for the fittest 12 , no matter public or private, listed or non-listed ...

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The Unresolved Issues in Maritime Economics

The Unresolved Issues in Maritime Economics

Part III dealt with Goss’ (2002) seminal paper [6] concerning “the growth and flowering of maritime economics, as a recognized discipline ”. Part IV consists of a summary of the evolution of maritime economic research (2001-2012) due to Talley (2013) [17]. Part V cleared-out the boundaries of the 4 sub-disciplines: “shipping (including cruising), shipbuilding, ports and marine economics”. Part VI built a bridge between Zannetos’ writings till 1987, and the most recent de- velopments in tanker economics, till 2010, as structural changes since end-1973 took place after the two energy crises in the tanker market.

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Sustainable Bulk-Packaging System for Sugar Shipping: Case Study of the Enterprise Leader in Europe

Sustainable Bulk-Packaging System for Sugar Shipping: Case Study of the Enterprise Leader in Europe

In 2018, the cultivated sugar beet surface amounted to just over 34,000 ha, a drastic 97.8% reduction since 2002 (ISTAT 2019; European Commission—Committee for the Common Organization of Agricultural Markets 2019). White sugar production amounted to 0.22 Mt in the marketing year 2018/2019, almost 80% less than 2006 (COPROB—Cooperativa Produttori Bieticoli 2019), but the demand was 1.6 Mt (Agostini 2019). Consequently, Italian sugar production covered only 12% of the demand, because the prices and margins of the sector have been greatly reduced (Agostini 2019). Two plants provide the local supply and they are located at Minerbio (Emilia Romagna region) and Pontelongo (Veneto region) in Northern Italy. They are owned by Co.Pro.B 2 (national market leader and unique cooperative beet sugar producer). There is another plant (located at Brindisi [Apulia region] in Southern Italy) that is owned by the foreign joint venture SRB Spa 3 . This plant only refines imported raw sugar and is the only one of its kind in Italy and the second in Europe (SRB Spa 2019). Therefore, it is clear that the country was forced to import white sugar from European countries (especially France and Germany) and raw sugar from the Extra-EU (Mauritius) (International Sugar Organization (ISO) 2019) to meet internal demands.

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The influence of educational technology on affective education in maritime education and training (MET)

The influence of educational technology on affective education in maritime education and training (MET)

In light of global competitiveness, the impacts of MBM on the Chinese liner fleets tend to be heavier than other types of ships, simply because the shippers are quite likely price elastic due to substantive substitutes in the transport market. The competition is tough, as many liner operators concentrate their core business in China, which is regarded as the world manufacturing base. Moreover, some liner operators also invest in container terminals and act as PTOs 33 to have dedicated berths for the purpose of saving turnaround time and getting more containers transported or transshipped. Another significant trend is: the No.1 liner firm Maersk line moves even more forward by investing in the “Malaccamax” containership with a capacity of 18,000 TEU, and now Maersk Line is not alone in the new generation of super-sized boxships since another containership owner Seaspan 34 declared that they would soon place orders of 18,000 TEU containerships. The new generation of super-sized containerships is called triple-E and claiming environment-friendly operations, e.g., new designed hull, economics of scale and less GHG emissions. However, the slot utilization is of utmost importance for achieving green operations of those giant boxships, otherwise they will turn into heavy polluters. Nevertheless, the big player in the liner field has never stopped attempting to monopolize the transport of containerized cargoes by investing in huge and efficient boxships. The negotiations on who should be responsible for the extra MBM price will be very tough, especially when the shipowner is in a favourable position in the market. Subsequently, Chinese liner fleets will have to face the dilemma during the time when the MBM is included in the container market if the market share is reducing.

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Research on cold chain in food industry in China

Research on cold chain in food industry in China

The voyage time of Asia/Europe line is about 33 days, the planed calling ports such as Kwan yang, Push an, Dalian, Tianjin, Qingdao, Hong Kong, Tan Jung Pelepas, Salalah, Chittagong, Damietta, Genoa, Fos, Valenxia, and so on. At present, the operating shipping companies includes Mearsk-sealand, Evergreen, CMA, APL, China Shipping, COSCO, ect. In the future, the container throughput of Asia/Europe line will still keep on predominant container throughput in Dalian port and Northeast Asia region and the container ship will be chosen to use with 4,500 to 6000 TEU carriage power.

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