[PDF] Top 20 Quarterly Economic Commentary, Autumn 2013

... On the basis of house completion, planning permission and commencement data it seems likely that investment in housing will remain subdued in 2013 and there appears little reason to change our forecast from the ... See full document

... Meanwhile, economic growth in 2013 is expected to be flat or negative in three of the four largest eurozone economies (France, Spain and ...consecutive quarterly GDP contractions of ...previous ... See full document

... an economic point of view, is ...for 2013 means that Budgetary policy is ...underlying economic activity rather than because the government has decided to increase expenditure or to cut ... See full document

... The increased level of activity in the economy has also resulted in a marginal increase in the labour force participation rate in the year-on-year rate to Q2 2015. In light of the increased economic activity, we ... See full document

... support economic growth, a principal objective of the partnership process has been to achieve moderate increases in wages in exchange for reductions in income tax to boost take home ... See full document

... Close links exist between the housing and mortgage market. The most recent figures show the value of borrowing for residential purchases grew by just 9 per cent in August, the slowest rate of growth since 1987. Data on ... See full document

... A further source of risk to the public finances is the recurring announcement – late in the year it is to be paid – of the Christmas bonus: an extra payment for people in receipt of certain social welfare benefits. The ... See full document

... Our static comparison provides ambiguous results as to which sorts of plant should be most attractive to investors. Plant profitability in a relatively small market is likely to be cyclical due to the relatively large ... See full document

... The All-Items Irish CPI can thus be expressed as the sum of a contemporaneous fixed-weight Laspeyres goods-and-services index with weight roughly 93.3 per cent and a component which is t[r] ... See full document

... The predictors included in the analysis are the NIE Preliminary estimates; the QEC final estimates and initial forecasts, the post1acto trends for the entire period and for the two-sub-p[r] ... See full document

... in economic activity significantly affect budget receipts and ...the economic cycle and lead to counter-cyclical movements in aggregate demand in the absence of any discretionary changes by the fiscal ... See full document

... aggregate macroeconomic data. They perform two separate analyses one using a panel of 14 countries (including Ireland) observed annually during the past 25 years and the other using a panel of U.S. states observed ... See full document

... of Economic Research (NBER), which act as the official arbiter of the business cycle in the US, typically deliberate extensively over the classifications of periods of expansion and recession in the US ... See full document

... deflate economic activity. As noted in the previous Commentary, the explicit intention to run a pro-cyclical budgetary policy as outlined in the Stability Programme Update (SPU) last April is disappointing ... See full document

... The Irish economy continues to increase at a significant pace in 2017. While certain taxation items registered relatively weak growth in the earlier part of the year, more recent Exchequer returns indicate that the total ... See full document

... adverse economic shock. Either way, given the strong pace of current economic activity and the possibility of a highly adverse shock, a neutral budget is the optimal policy choice at this ... See full document

... an economic activity variable (GDP or private consumption), ...the economic activity variable or unemployment in the initial period (a year, since annual data are being ...to economic developments ... See full document

... the Commentary, this is subject to the technical assumption that the UK will retain the current trading relationship with the European ...Irish economic activity by lowering firm investment and household ... See full document

... In order to assess what might happen in the housing market we examine what happens to the user cost‐rent ratio under a number of scenarios for house price expectations: firstly, in our base scenario, house price  ... See full document

... domestic economic activity, could, if suitably explained, be used by those interested in economic policy in Ireland, and also by those abroad interested in the Irish ... See full document