[PDF] Top 20 Skill of a global forecasting system in seasonal ensemble streamflow prediction
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Skill of a global forecasting system in seasonal ensemble streamflow prediction
... actual forecasting setup, the predictive skill of a hydrological forecasting system is affected not only by errors in model structure and parameterization and initial conditions such as soil ... See full document
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ENSO conditioned weather resampling method for seasonal ensemble streamflow prediction
... The phase of most climate modes is quantified by climate indices that are evaluated and published monthly. Taking this information into account in streamflow forecasting could enhance its skill. ... See full document
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GloFAS – global ensemble streamflow forecasting and flood early warning
... warning system, as described in ...the system was run in hindcast mode for the period 1 January 2009 to 31 Decem- ber ...semble streamflow predictions (ESPs) were evaluated against discharge proxy ... See full document
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Seasonal streamflow forecasts in the Ahlergaarde catchment, Denmark: the effect of preprocessing and post processing on skill and statistical consistency
... and streamflow forecasts on the skill and statistical consistency of monthly stream- flow and yearly minimum daily flow ...meteorological seasonal forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range ... See full document
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Seasonal drought prediction for semiarid northeastern Brazil: verification of six hydro meteorological forecast products
... The seasonal forecasting system implemented at FUNCEME (Ceará’s hydro-meteorological agency) is based on the ...20 ensemble members and are run on initial sea surface temperature (SST) ... See full document
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Seasonal streamflow forecasts for Europe – Part 2: Sources of skill
... the skill in WUSHP and is structured in two main ...the skill in the most important meteoro- logical forcing variables (precipitation, 2 m temperature and incoming short-wave radiation from S4) is ...no ... See full document
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Seasonal streamflow forecasting by conditioning climatology with precipitation indices
... between System 4 precip- itation and climatology at such lead times is the initialisation of the GCM, which leads to sharper System 4 forecasts for the first lead ...previous streamflow conditions as ... See full document
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Developing a global operational seasonal hydro-meteorological forecasting system: GloFAS-Seasonal v1.0
... 51 ensemble members (stagefc and getfc tasks), alongside the river flow reference clima- tology (see ...4-month ensemble river flow forecast at a daily time step, from which the weekly averaged ... See full document
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A global empirical system for probabilistic seasonal climate prediction
... analog forecasting (van den Dool, 2007; Suckling and Smith, 2013) and regression-based techniques, which may in turn take predictive information from spatial patterns us- ing, for instance, empirical orthogonal ... See full document
27
Bias correcting precipitation forecasts to improve the skill of seasonal streamflow forecasts
... Seasonal forecasting methods in hydrology can be broadly divided into two categories: statistical methods, which use a statistical relationship between a predictor and a predictand ...use seasonal ... See full document
18
Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe?
... using seasonal climate forecasts instead of histor- ical meteorological observations for forecasting streamflow on seasonal timescales over ...the skill of the newly operational EFAS ... See full document
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Seasonal streamflow forecasting in the upper Indus Basin of Pakistan: an assessment of methods
... Seasonal streamflow forecasts can be a valuable source of information for water resource managers (Chiew et ...ical forecasting approaches developed and implemented in- ternationally (Yuan et ...of ... See full document
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Complex relationship between seasonal streamflow forecast skill and value in reservoir operations
... by seasonal stream- flow forecasts would benefit from a wealth of recent sci- ence advances, including new ensemble seasonal streamflow forecasting methods, adding to existing ... See full document
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Assessment of an ensemble seasonal streamflow forecasting system for Australia
... no skill to water ...new streamflow forecasting system called “forecast guided stochastic scenar- ios”, or ...climate forecasting system to force a monthly rainfall–runoff ... See full document
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Benchmarking ensemble streamflow prediction skill in the UK
... future streamflow states. The source of ESP skill is therefore due to initial hydro- logic conditions (IHCs) from antecedent stores of soil mois- ture, groundwater, snowpack, and channel streamflow ... See full document
17
Assessment of an ensemble seasonal streamflow forecasting system for Australia
... ysis of reliability and bias for all 63 catchments will be de- scribed in the results of the three experiments (Sect. 5.2–5.4). To illustrate the overall performance of the FoGSS base case, we review skill and ... See full document
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Verification of ECMWF System 4 for seasonal hydrological forecasting in a northern climate
... ECMWF System 4 does not include any sea-ice model (ECMWF, ...of ensemble meteorological forecasts exist and a multi-model approach could improve the skill of the seasonal ...to Seasonal ... See full document
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Application of quantitative precipitation forecasting and precipitation ensemble prediction for hydrological forecasting
... flood forecasting has gradually been considered by many hydrologists and meteorologists in recent years (Yang Wen-fa et ...numerical prediction theory and methods, numerical prediction is becoming a ... See full document
6
On the skill of raw and post processed ensemble seasonal meteorological forecasts in Denmark
... a forecasting system to be useful, it has to be at least better than a clima- tological ...ECMWF System 4 ...better skill than the ensemble climatological forecast for the three ... See full document
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Monthly hydrometeorological ensemble prediction of streamflow droughts and corresponding drought indices
... low streamflow events than peak-flow ...of streamflow droughts should prove useful for end ...forecast system can predict the proba- bility to exceed different thresholds, from very low to very high ... See full document
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