Appendix B: Key Variables in Energy Choice Simulator Model
SUBSCRIPTS USED: N/A
III- B31 Cost of Saving Energy:
UNIT: Dollar/Trillion BTU
DESCRIPTION: Cost to save energy through efficiency improvements.
USE: Used to calculate the spending required to achieve energy efficiency and the cost of efficiency mandates. SUBSCRIPTS USED: N/A
DATA SOURCE: MGA EEAG (2008), Estimate of Mitigation Option Costs and Benefits for Midwestern Governors’ Association (MGA) Energy Efficiency Advisory Group (EEAG) GHG Analysis: EE3 Levelized Incremental Cost of Electricity Efficiency. http://www.midwesterngovernors.org/energy.htm
Cost of Saving Energy from Building Codes: UNIT: Dollar/Trillion BTU
DESCRIPTION: Cost of energy efficiency through building codes.
USE: Used to calculate how much must be spent to achieve a certain level of building efficiency. SUBSCRIPTS USED: N/A
DATA SOURCE: MGA EEAG (2008), Estimate of Mitigation Option Costs and Benefits for Midwestern Governors’ Association (MGA) Energy Efficiency Advisory Group (EEAG) GHG Analysis: EE6 Avoided Electricity Cost. http://www.midwesterngovernors.org/energy.htm
FEEDSTOCK-AVAILABILITY Algae Availability: UNIT: Trillion BTU
DESCRIPTION: Annually availability of feedstock for use in the state or region.
USE: Used as an absolute cap on fuel, electricity, or nonelectric building heating from this source. SUBSCRIPTS USED: N/A
DATA SOURCE: Currently, there is no industrial fuel algae production. Corn Grain Availability:
UNIT: Trillion BTU
DESCRIPTION: Annually availability of feedstock for use in the state or region.
USE: Used as an absolute cap on fuel, electricity, or nonelectric building heating from this source. SUBSCRIPTS USED: N/A
DATA SOURCE: National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) (2000 data), http://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_Subject/index.asp
Wind Electric Availability: UNIT: TWh
DESCRIPTION: Annually availability of feedstock for use in the state or region.
USE: Used as an absolute cap on fuel, electricity, or nonelectric building heating from this source. SUBSCRIPTS USED: N/A
DATA SOURCE: American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) Top 20 States with Wind Energy Resource Potential (1991 data), http://www.awea.org/pubs/factsheets/Top_20_States.pdf
Coal Availability: UNIT: Trillion BTUs
DESCRIPTION: Annually availability of feedstock for use in the state or region.
USE: Used as an absolute cap on fuel, electricity, or nonelectric building heating from this source. SUBSCRIPTS USED: N/A
DATA SOURCE: Energy Information Administration (EIA) Table 7.2 Coal Production, 1949-2008 (2000 data), http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/txt/ptb0702.html
Soybean Availability: UNIT: Trillion BTUs
DESCRIPTION: Annually availability of feedstock for use in the state or region.
USE: Used as an absolute cap on fuel, electricity, or nonelectric building heating from this source. SUBSCRIPTS USED: N/A
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DATA SOURCE: DATA SOURCE: National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) (2000 data), http://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_Subject/index.asp
EOR Oil Availability: UNIT: Trillion BTUs
DESCRIPTION: Annually availability of feedstock for use in the state or region.
USE: Used as an absolute cap on fuel, electricity, or nonelectric building heating from this source. SUBSCRIPTS USED: N/A
DATA SOURCE: Assumed no current or year 2000 utilization of EOR oil. Oil Sands Availability:
UNIT: Trillion BTUs
DESCRIPTION: Annually availability of feedstock for use in the state or region.
USE: Used as an absolute cap on fuel, electricity, or nonelectric building heating from this source. SUBSCRIPTS USED: N/A
DATA SOURCE: Assumption due to lack of data North American Oil Availability:
UNIT: Trillion BTUs
DESCRIPTION: Annually availability of feedstock for use in the state or region.
USE: Used as an absolute cap on fuel, electricity, or nonelectric building heating from this source. SUBSCRIPTS USED: N/A
DATA SOURCE: Energy Information Administration (EIA) International Petroleum Monthly, (2000), http://www.eia.doe.gov/ipm/supply.html
Foreign Oil Availability: UNIT: Trillion BTUs
DESCRIPTION: Annually availability of feedstock for use in the state or region.
USE: Used as an absolute cap on fuel, electricity, or nonelectric building heating from this source. SUBSCRIPTS USED: N/A
DATA SOURCE: Energy Information Administration (EIA) International Petroleum Monthly, (2000), http://www.eia.doe.gov/ipm/supply.html
Nuclear Fuel Availability: UNIT: TWh
DESCRIPTION: Annually availability of feedstock for use in the state or region.
USE: Used as an absolute cap on fuel, electricity, or nonelectric building heating from this source. SUBSCRIPTS USED: N/A
DATA SOURCE: World Nuclear Association Uranium Production Figures 1998-2008 (2000 data), http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/uprod.html
Biogas Availability: UNIT: TWh
DESCRIPTION: Annually availability of feedstock for use in the state or region.
USE: Used as an absolute cap on fuel, electricity, or nonelectric building heating from this source. SUBSCRIPTS USED: N/A
DATA SOURCE: Energy Information Administration (EIA) State Energy Data System (SEDS) (2000), http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/states/_seds.html ([wood and waste]/2 )
Natural Gas Availability: UNIT: Trillion BTU
DESCRIPTION: Total system availability of energy from natural gas. USE: Used as a maximum system cap for energy from one source. SUBSCRIPTS USED: N/A
DATA SOURCE: Energy Information Administration (EIA) Historical Natural Gas Annual 1930 Through 2000: Table 1. Quantity and Average Price of Natural Gas Production in the United States, 1930-2000 (2000 data),
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http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/natural_gas/data_publications/historical_natural_gas_annual/current/pdf/table_0 1.pdf
Biomass Availability: UNIT: Trillion BTU
DESCRIPTION: Annually availability of feedstock for use in the state or region.
USE: Used as an absolute cap on fuel, electricity, or nonelectric building heating from this source. SUBSCRIPTS USED: Biomass Feedstocks
DATA SOURCE: Grass: National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) (2000) http://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_Subject/index.asp
Crop residue: Assumption; same as corn (1:1 corn to stover ratio)
Wood: Energy Information Administration (EIA) State Energy Data System (SEDS) (2000), http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/states/_seds.html ([wood and waste]/2 )
Sunlight Availability: UNIT: TWh
DESCRIPTION: Annually availability of feedstock for use in the state or region.
USE: Used as an absolute cap on fuel, electricity, or nonelectric building heating from this source. SUBSCRIPTS USED: N/A
DATA SOURCE: Minnesota Department of Commerce Average Solar Radiation in Minnesota (2002), http://www.state.mn.us/mn/externalDocs/Commerce/MN_Solar_Map_110802025502_solarmap5.pdf Hydro Availability:
UNIT: TWh
DESCRIPTION: Annually availability of feedstock for use in the state or region.
USE: Used as an absolute cap on fuel, electricity, or nonelectric building heating from this source. SUBSCRIPTS USED: N/A
DATA SOURCE: Baseline data from Energy Information Administration (EIA) State Energy Data System (SEDS) (2000), http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/states/_seds.html, assumed capacity increase of 10%
Advanced Biodiesel Feedstock Availability: UNIT: Trillion BTU
DESCRIPTION: Annually availability of feedstock for use in the state or region.
USE: Used as an absolute cap on fuel, electricity, or nonelectric building heating from this source. SUBSCRIPTS USED: N/A
DATA SOURCE: Assumed zero in year 2000. FEEDSTOCKS PRICES AND EMISSIONS
Biogas Prices: UNIT: Dollars/TWh
DESCRIPTION: Feedstock costs for waste gas.
USE: Used in the calculation of levelized average costs of electricity productions. SUBSCRIPTS USED: N/A
DATA SOURCE: None Uranium Prices: UNIT: Dollars/TWh
DESCRIPTION: Feedstock costs for uranium.
USE: Used in the calculation of levelized average costs of electricity productions. SUBSCRIPTS USED: N/A
DATA SOURCE: None Biogas Feedstock Emissions: UNIT: Metric Tons CO2e/TWh
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USE: Used to calculate natural gas prices based on the proportion from recovered natural gas and waste gas. SUBSCRIPTS USED: N/A
DATA SOURCE: Argonne National Laboratory Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation (GREET) Model, v. 1.8c.0 (2009)
http://www.transportation.anl.gov/modeling_simulation/GREET/index.html Cost Curve Multiplier:
UNIT: Fraction
DESCRIPTION: Multiplier used for calculating the price effects based on a cost curve for each fuel pathway. USE: Change the multiplier as appropriate for each fuel pathway.
SUBSCRIPTS USED: Fuel Pathways
DATA SOURCE: ICF International (2008, August 22). Integrated Planning Model (IPM) in Strawman Assumptions for Discussion Purposes Part II (Not for Distribution). Prepared for Modeling Subgroup, Midwest Greenhouse Gas Reduction Accord. http://www.icfi.com/default.asp
CO2E EMISSIONS CO2E BUYOUT
Percentage Below 1990 Emissions Levels: UNIT: Fraction
DESCRIPTION: Emissions goal above or below the 1990 CO2e emission levels. USE: Used to calculate policy goal line as a function of 1990 emission levels. SUBSCRIPTS USED: N/A
DATA SOURCE: N/A; uses 1990 Emissions Levels 1990 CO2e Emissions Levels:
UNIT: Metric Tons CO2e
DESCRIPTION: 1990 CO2e levels of emissions. USE: Used to generate a goal line for the user interface. SUBSCRIPTS USED: N/A
DATA SOURCE: International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), http://www.ipcc.ch/ Required Land Payment per Acre:
UNIT: Dollars/Acre
DESCRIPTION: On average how much it would cost to purchase an acre of land. USE: Used for calculations involving land use changes.
SUBSCRIPTS USED: N/A
DATA SOURCE: User input, baseline value is an assumption based on expert consultation CO2 Sequestration per Acre of Corn Converted to Grass:
UNIT: Metric Tons CO2e/Acre
DESCRIPTION: Annual carbon sequestration through the conversion of land being used for corn to grass. USE: Used to calculate additional carbon sequestered in grass after conversion from corn crop land SUBSCRIPTS USED: N/A
DATA SOURCE: User input, baseline value is an assumption based on expert consultation ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Electricity Production Capacity Construction Jobs: UNIT: Jobs/TWh
DESCRIPTION: Jobs generated from construction. USE: Used to calculate jobs in the electricity sector. SUBSCRIPTS USED: Electricity Technology DATA SOURCE: None; baseline value is 0
Electricity Production Capacity Operations and Maintenance Jobs: UNIT: Jobs/TWh
III-B35
DESCRIPTION: Jobs generated from operation and maintenance of electricity production capacity. USE: Used to calculate jobs in the electricity sector.
SUBSCRIPTS USED: Electricity Technology DATA SOURCE: None; baseline value is 0 Fuel Production Capacity Construction Jobs: UNIT: Jobs/TWh
DESCRIPTION: Jobs generated from construction of fuel production capacity. USE: Used to calculate jobs in the fuel sector.
SUBSCRIPTS USED: Transportation Technology DATA SOURCE: None; baseline value is 0
Fuel Production Capacity Operations and Maintenance Jobs: UNIT: Jobs/TWh
DESCRIPTION: Jobs generated from operation and maintenance of fuel production capacity. USE: Used to calculate jobs in the fuel sector.
SUBSCRIPTS USED: Transportation Technology DATA SOURCE: None; baseline value is 0 Jobs from Demand Reduction Projects: UNIT: Job/Trillion BTU
DESCRIPTION: Jobs generated through demand reduction in the electricity and nonelectric building heating sector. USE: Tracking of jobs.
SUBSCRIPTS USED: N/A
DATA SOURCE: None, baseline value is 0
Description and sources of variables not in the user interface:
Fraction of Gasoline Vehicles: Graphical function variable that uses the relative levelized average cost difference between gasoline engines and all other engine types to determine the fraction of vehicles purchases that will be gasoline vehicles. This function assumes other factors in vehicle choice not explicitly modeled.
Baseline Data: none Units: fraction
Fraction of Diesel Vehicles: Graphical function variable that uses the relative levelized average cost difference between diesel engines and all other engine types to determine the fraction of vehicles purchases that will be diesel vehicles. This function assumes other factors in vehicle choice not explicitly modeled.
Baseline Data: none Units: fraction
Fraction of Electric Vehicles: Graphical function variable that uses the relative levelized average cost difference between electric engines and natural gas engine types to determine the fraction of vehicles purchases that will be electric vehicles. This function assumes other factors in vehicle choice not explicitly modeled.
Baseline Data: none Units: fraction
Fraction of High Economy Vehicles by Engine Type: Graphical function variable that uses the relative levelized average cost difference between low efficiency and high efficiency vehicle types to determine the fraction of vehicles purchases that will be gasoline vehicles. This function assumes other factors in vehicle choice not explicitly modeled.
Baseline Data: none Units: fraction
Cost of Vehicle Fuel Economy Standards: Uses comparison between actual vehicle fuel economy caused by policy to fuel economy without policy to calculate the additional cost of a vehicle.
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Baseline Data: None/Calculated from reported cost of CAFÉ plus Clean car standard of 1300 dollars. http://emptywheel.firedoglake.com/2009/05/18/details-on-the-new-fuel-efficiency-standards/
Units: Dollar/Vehicle
Feedstock Costs: Costs associated with extracting, growing, and bringing the feedstock to the fuel production facility. Used to calculate the levelized average cost of fuel production.
Baseline Data: Petroleum and CTL: Energy Information Administration (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) (2009), http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/pdf/0383%282009%29.pdf
Corn Ethanol: Tiffany, D. & Taff, S. J. (2009). Current and future ethanol production technologies: costs of production and rates of return on invested capital. Int. J. Biotechnology. 11(1/2):75-91.
Soybean Biodiesel: Tiffany, D. & Taff, S. J. (2009). Current and future ethanol production technologies: costs of production and rates of return on invested capital. Int. J. Biotechnology. 11(1/2):75-91.
Paulson, N. & Ginder, R. (2007). The growth and direction of the biodiesel industry in the United States. Working Paper 07-WP 448. Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Iowa State University.
http://www.agmrc.org/media/cms/CARD07PaulsonGinder_751A2F9827ABF.pdf
Gas Natural Gas: Energy Information Administration (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) (2009),
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/pdf/0383%282009%29.pdf , plus 50 cents per mmBTU for transport from Henry Hub Algae Biodiesel, Feedstock Adv Biodiesel: None; values are 0
Units: Dollar/Trillion BTU
Life Cycle NonElectric Building Heating CO2e Emission Intensity: Emissions from the life cycle of fuels used in nonelectric building heating. Used to calculate total life cycle emission from nonelectric building heating. Baseline Data: Oil Use: Fuel oil, diesel emissions
Solar Heating: None Gas Use: Natural Gas
Nongrid Electricity: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), eGRID2002 Version 2.01 (2000 Data), http://www.epa.gov/cleanenergy/energy-resources/egrid/index.html
Units: Metric Tons CO2e/Trillion BTUs
Combustion NonElectric Building Heating CO2e Emission Intensity: Emission intensity from combustion of fuels in nonelectric building heating. Used to calculate total combustion emission from nonelectric building heating Baseline Data: Oil Use: Fuel oil, diesel emissions
Solar Heating: None Gas Use: Natural Gas
Nongrid Electricity: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), eGRID2002 Version 2.01 (2000 Data), http://www.epa.gov/cleanenergy/energy-resources/egrid/index.html
Units: Metric Tons CO2e/Trillion BTUs
Basic Feedstock Supply Curve: Biomass curves relating biomass demand to feedstock costs.
Baseline Data: Assumptions based on data from Energy Information Administration (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) models (2008) appearing in ICF International (2008, August 22) Strawman Assumptions for Discussion Purposes Part II (Not for Distribution). Prepared for Modeling Subgroup, Midwest Greenhouse Gas Reduction Accord. http://www.icfi.com/default.asp
Units: Dollar/Trillion BTUs
Baseline Year CO2e Emissions for Use in a Electricity CO2e Cap: Emissions in the baseline year used to calculate as the CO2e cap’s required reductions in emissions.
Baseline Data: none Units: Metric Tons CO2e
Biomass Cost Curve Multiplier: Modifies biomass curve input to account for shifts in the biomass curves over time.
Baseline Data: ICF International (2008, August 22). Integrated Planning Model (IPM) in Strawman Assumptions for Discussion Purposes Part II (Not for Distribution). Prepared for Modeling Subgroup, Midwest Greenhouse Gas Reduction Accord. http://www.icfi.com/default.asp