Internal variability
On the choice of ensemble mean for estimating the forced signal in the presence of internal variability
... of internal variability under a future forcing ...temperature variability decreases at higher latitudes, particularly over the ocean along the sea ice margins, while variability in ...
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Definition differences and internal variability affect the simulated Arctic sea ice melt season
... 3). Internal variability in melt season length trends is as large as for the freeze onset trends, with pan-Arctic trends in melt season length between − ...that internal variability can have a ...
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Description and basic evaluation of simulated mean state, internal variability, and climate sensitivity in MIROC6
... Recently, we have developed the sixth version of MIROC, called MIROC6. This newly developed climate model has updated physical parameterizations in all sub-modules. In or- der to suppress an increase in computational ...
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Influence of the Boundary Forcing on the Internal Variability of a Regional Climate Model
... nal variability can be related to the variability of the boundary forcing as already speculated by ...of internal variability inside the domain, with high (low) internal ...
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Tropical Pacific spatial trend patterns in observed sea level: internal variability and/or anthropogenic signature?
... the internal variability of the cli- mate system and of external forcing factors, in particular an- thropogenic emissions (greenhouse gases and ...volcanic variability and changes in anthropogenic ...
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Influence of atmospheric internal variability on the long-term Siberian water cycle during the past 2 centuries
... The results from the AGCM and CMIP3 simulations and previous studies give us further implication for the P vari- ability and associated atmospheric circulation pattern over Siberia. Compared to the AGCM control ...
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Fldgen v1.0: an emulator with internal variability and space–time correlation for Earth system models
... Joshi, M., Lambert, F., and Webb, M.: An explanation for the differ- ence between twentieth and twenty-first century land–sea warm- ing ratio in climate models, Clim. Dynam., 41, 1853–1869, 2013. Kay, J., Deser, C., ...
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Future changes of hydroclimatic extremes in western North America using a large ensemble: The role of internal variability
... climate variability are the primary concerns in determining the impacts of climate change (Tebaldi et ...the variability of extreme events in the Equatorial East Africa over the 21st ...precipitation ...
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Systematic attribution of observed Southern Hemisphere circulation trends to external forcing and internal variability
... As internal modes of climate variability, we use an ENSO ...(SST) variability (ENSO, IOD) or an intrinsic mode of tropical variability ...midlatitude variability but recognize that they ...
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Forcing, feedback and internal variability in global temperature trends
... 82 83 Figure 1a contains the joint relative frequency distribution of 15-year GMST 84 trends across the 114 available CMIP5 simulations, as a function of start years since 85 1900 and tr[r] ...
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Comment on “Scaling regimes and linear/nonlinear responses of last millennium climate to volcanic and solar forcing” by S. Lovejoy and C. Varotsos (2016)
... the internal noise represented by the control run, and the similarity between (f) and (h) indicates that the internal variability is the main cause of reduced intermittency in the response to ...
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Distinguishing the effects of internal and forced atmospheric variability in climate networks
... atmospheric variability will be related to the evolution of the tropical oceans (Trenberth et ...forced variability in most places ...forced variability despite the small-ensemble ...
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Internal and external variability in regional simulations of the Iberian Peninsula climate over the last millennium
... of internal variability, or if long, they do not consider different runs (G´omez-Navarro et ...inherent internal variability of climate ...chaotic internal variability over a ...
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Influence of internal climate variability on Indian Ocean Dipole properties
... for internal climate variability as each model has its own internal variability and ...capture internal climate variability, a single CGCM with an ensemble of simulations with ...
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Climate forcing and sudden change in marine ecosystems
... of internal climate variability in the North Pacific are by themselves inadequate to explain leading axes of climatic ...1.2) variability in the Gulf of Alaska and Bering Sea ecosystems over a ...
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The effect of univariate bias adjustment on multivariate hazard estimates
... Abstract. Bias adjustment is often a necessity in estimating climate impacts because impact models usually rely on unbiased climate information, a requirement that climate model outputs rarely fulfil. Most currently used ...
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Canadian snow and sea ice: assessment of snow, sea ice, and related climate processes in Canada's Earth system model and climate-prediction system
... is generated by slightly perturbing the atmospheric state at the beginning of 1950, with 10 different perturbations. These 50 realizations are then integrated forward until 2005 with CMIP5 historical forcings (Taylor et ...
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Cross validation of bias corrected climate simulations is misleading
... of internal variability in the observations and climate ...of internal variability in the discussed cross- validation context depends on the relative strength of in- ternal variability ...
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Predictability of a low-order interactive ensemble
... vergent region above the blue side of the surface on the top right of Fig. 7. This can also be seen in Fig. 8 where the en- semble members move to the top right of region I. Figure 8 is periodic on both axis. As the ...
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Large basin hydrological response to climate model outputs: uncertainty caused by internal atmospheric variability
... to internal variability (Yip et ...of variability within an ensemble, it is neces- sary to calculate several dozens of simulation trajectories as a ...
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