Uncertainty sources and values
On the Sources of Uncertainty in Exchange Rate Predictability
... critical values computed using a data-mining robust bootstrap procedure proposed in Inoue and Kilian (2005) and implemented, for example, in Rapach and Wohar ...
79
On the sources of hydrological prediction uncertainty in the Amazon
... Re- sources (ANA), the Peruvian and Bolivian National Mete- orology and Hydrology Services (both SENAMHI) and the HYBAM program (Hydrology, Biogeochemistry and Geo- dynamic of the Amazon Basin, ...) values ...
11
On the sources of uncertainty in exchange rate predictability
... these constant-coefficients methods largely fail to outperform the RW benchmark. 15 Table 2 presents the results for Bayesian methods based on single predictors including Tvar-coeffs and excluding Tvar-coeffs. At the ...
97
Accounting for three sources of uncertainty in ensemble hydrological forecasting
... state uncertainty, such as soil moisture, but it also implicitly takes into account model parameters and structural uncertainty as these are reflected in the model states and output ...(the ...
17
Quantifying different sources of uncertainty in hydrological projections in an Alpine watershed
... The results of this study show that the hydrological model parameterization is generally of low significance. Recently, Vaze et al. (2010) reported that models calibrated over a long time period can generally be applied ...
18
Robust changes and sources of uncertainty in the projected hydrological regimes of Swiss catchments
... We used climate projections of the CH2011 data set [CH2011, 2011] from the Center for Climate Systems Modeling (C2SM). This recently released data set consists of two types of projections for Switzerland, both based on ...
23
Exploring uncertainty in canine cancer data sources through dasymetric refinement
... Regression Models of Canine Cancer Incidence Geographic correlation studies assess the relationships between disease incidence or mortality and the occurrence of potential demographic and environmental risk factors ...
14
On quantifying uncertainty for project selection : the case of a renewable energy sources investment
... possible values of a parameter are almost uncountable, therefore the potential scenarios are infinite and the possibility of realisation of each one of them equals ...possible values for each input variable ...
11
Sources of uncertainty in hydrological climate impact assessment: a cross scale study
... individual values see tables A1a–c in the appendix). Most values are located in the lower left corner when considering only differences in the moderate sce- narios ...driven uncertainty to the entire ...
15
Sources of uncertainty in hydrological climate impact assessment: a cross-scale study
... Most values are located in the lower left corner when considering only differences in the moderate scenarios ...driven uncertainty to the entire uncertainty in river discharge when looking at small ...
34
Interpretative modelling of a geological cross section from boreholes: sources of uncertainty and their quantification
... In the proposed model, there are P = 7 random effects pa- rameters (or variance parameters) to be estimated by REML. One may consider the “null hypothesis” that one of these pa- rameters can be set at a fixed value, to ...
15
Exploring the sources of uncertainty: why does bagging for time series forecasting work?
... Bootstrap model combination (strategy 4) offers balanced performance improvements across all data sets and frequencies. We can consider strategy 4 as an approach that concep- tually “combines” strategy 2 (model ...
22
NaCl nucleation from brine in seeded simulations : sources of uncertainty in rate estimates
... µ NaCl = µ † NaCl + 2k B T ln m + 2k B T ln γ ± , (5) where γ ± is the overall NaCl electrolyte activity coeffi- cient and µ † NaCl for the JC/SPC/E model is approximately − 391.6 kJ/mol. 31 Different investigators have ...
10
Bayesian Fan Charts for U.K. Inflation: Forecasting and Sources of Uncertainty in an Evolving Monetary System
... For the same reason that it is important for the proposal density to recognize movements in core inflation, it is also important that it discern changes in inflation persistence. Otherwise, the half life of shocks would ...
44
Bias analysis applied to Agricultural Health Study publications to estimate non-random sources of uncertainty
... An advantage of bias analysis is that alternative assump- tions about the parameterizations and bias models can be readily examined, and the results compared with one another. These comparisons provide a quantitative ...
9
Evaluating sources of uncertainty in modelling the impact of probabilistic climate change on sub-arctic palsa mires
... 3 Results 3.1 Model performance under baseline conditions Descriptive statistics for the 600 climatic envelope models are presented in Table 3. Nearly all models had AUC val- ues greater than 0.9 for the evaluation data ...
15
Disclosure of Critical Accounting Judgments and Key Sources of Estimation Uncertainty in the Financial Statements of Companies in Nigeria
... which limits the number of items we might expect to see reported. Longer term uncertainties may also be useful for users of financial statements. However, these additional disclosures should be explained and clearly ...
10
Preparation of Natural Gas Blends Used as Calibration Standards: Sources of Uncertainty and Best Preparation Practices
... heating values of 1200 Btu/scf, it does not consider the use of needle valves to be a significant source of phase change and condensation during raw material ...
37
Quantifying and Reducing Uncertainty from Multiple Sources in Forecasting Monthly to Seasonal Land-Surface Attributes.
... 1.5. DISCUSSION CHAPTER 1. PROBABILISTIC DOWNSCALING the probabilistic information in climate forecasts and previous month streamflow. Thus, coarse-scale ensemble-based precipitation forecasts from ECHAM4.5 GCM along ...
167
On the Sources of Uncertainty in Exchange Rate Predictability
... main sources of instabilities we detect, this result reinforces the …nding that the BMA model including time-varying coe¢- cients successfully captures the degree of time-variation in parameters necessary to o¤set ...
79