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Forecasting and Analysis Mortality using Lee Carter Model with application
... table model, this assumption would be appropriate if the variable represented as rows in the table was independent of the variable represented as ...the model by the ordinary least squares method is ... See full document
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The Poisson Log-Bilinear Lee-Carter Model: Applications Of efficient bootstrap methods to annuity analyses
... in mortality as a stochastic ...the Lee-Carter ...accurate mortality projections, based on the idea of obtaining an acceptable accuracy of the estimate by means of variance reducing ...the ... See full document
24
Model confidence sets and forecast combination: an application to age-specific mortality
... for forecasting age-specific mortality rates have been proposed in the literature (see Booth (2006); Booth and Tickle (2008); Currie et ...and forecasting was the work by Lee and Carter ... See full document
24
On the Modeling and Forecasting of Socioeconomic Mortality Differentials: An Application to Deprivation and Mortality in England
... country, mortality rates and indices such as life expectancy usually differ across sub- populations, for example, defined by gender, geographic area or socio-economic variables ...and forecasting of ... See full document
36
Lee-Carter goes risk-neutral: an application to the Italian annuity market
... tality model based on an information structure quite common in the credit-risk ...LC model that allows the intensity of mortality to be driven by general ...of mortality remain of the LC type. ... See full document
30
Identifying structural breaks in stochastic mortality models
... in mortality rates are of fundamental importance in various areas such as demography, actuarial studies, public health, social insur- ance planning, and economic ...in mortality forecasting (for a ... See full document
28
Extending the Lee Carter Model: a Three-way Decomposition
... Data Analysis approach to the Lee-Carter (LC) model of mortality trends ...LC model and specify a new model based on a three-way structure, which incorporates a further ... See full document
23
On the effectiveness of natural hedging for insurance companies and pension plans
... the Lee-Carter mortality indices of the two populations, in order to find the optimal ...Poisson Lee-Carter model, Poisson common factor model, product- ratio ... See full document
34
Detecting Common Longevity Trends by a Multiple Population Approach
... in mortality data involves the interactions between age and ...the mortality experience of countries in the industrialized world over the course of the twentieth century would suggest a substantial age-time ... See full document
36
Multiple mortality modeling in Poisson Lee-Carter framework
... in mortality reduction due to common social-economic factors and improvements in medical ...our application it is relevant to notice the wider CI’s for Belgium, which is the smallest of the considered ... See full document
26
llc: a collection of R functions for fitting a class of Lee-Carter mortality models using iterative fitting algorithms
... the analysis of a class of six different types of log-linear models in the GLM framework with Poisson errors that includes the basic LC model ...and analysis of the stratified LC ...the ... See full document
47
Inference and forecasting in the age-period-cohort model with unknown exposure with an application to mesothelioma mortality
... dose-response model can be ...the model parameters, but also the derivation of Bayesian credibility ...to model the responses. This is inspired by the chain-ladder analysis used for ... See full document
31
Assessing Actuarial Projections Accuracy: Traditional vs Experimental Strategy
... the Lee Carter method and reiterates the fea- sibility of using it to construct mortality forecast for the population ...the model is fitted in a traditional way and used to extrapolate ... See full document
13
Autocorrelation in Stochastic Models of Dutch Mortality Rates
... the Lee-Carter, the WLS and the Poisson bilinear ...the mortality rates. Although the Lee-Carter estimate follows the general movement of the other estimates, it deviates particularily ... See full document
27
Backtesting the Lee-Carter and the Cairns-Blake-Dowd Stochastic Mortality Models on Italian Death Rates
... male mortality trend, with greater biases for the ages lower than x = 75, which were those more affected by the ...male mortality is evident in all the three backtesting frameworks, table (4) numerically ... See full document
30
On simulation-based approaches to risk measurement in mortality with specific reference to Poisson Lee-Carter modelling
... the model rather than the non-linearity of the parametric ...the application of simulation Strategy B in a re-analysis of the average cost of claims for privately owned, insured cars, ... See full document
52
Multiple mortality modeling in Poisson Lee–Carter framework
... our application could have been Bayesian (empirical, full) with the kti as random ...simulation analysis in that probability distributions are used to represent the uncertainty about model ... See full document
26
Forecasting mortality in subpopulations using Lee-Carter type models: A comparison
... The predictive capacity of the models can be analysed also through the 10 years truncated expected residual lifetime at ages 60, 70 and 80 and the corresponding MAPE, contained in Tables 5-7. As these expectations depend ... See full document
21
Trend forecasting of main groups of causes-of-death in Iran using the Lee-Carter model
... The Lee Carter model was used to predict death rates. Lee-Carter model as a method of extrapolation is a com- bination of a rich demographic model and time series ...of ... See full document
5
Lee Carter mortality forecasting: application to the Italian population
... the model we have previously identified and estimated fits the historical data well, we perform a number of ...thereby using a 35 years in-sample period, to generate out-of-sample forecasts for the next 15 ... See full document
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