22 2.2 Interpretation
2.3. A New Look at an Unresolved Problem for Research
Two conclusions emerge from the assessment undertaken in this chapter. (1) The assertion that Australian, Canadian and New Zealand agrarian parties were a consequence of a class or a territorial identity, an ideological consciousness or organisational cohesion is, in several respects, questionable. These interpretations are not refutable and thus cannot resolve the problem for comparative research formulated in Chapter 1. The resolution of this problem for research requires, in terms of methodology, an explicitly theoretical (and clearly refutable) analysis (see also Appendix B).
(2) These assertions do not correspond with the results of contemporary political science research. The resolution of this problem thus requires, in substantive terms, that attention be directed away from notions of class, territory and ideology, and that it be focussed upon the impact of agricultural economic con ditions on rural party and voter behaviour. Primary producers must not be considered to be an homogenous group. Rather, they must be considered to be an atomised set of actors. Analysis must also be directed at the behaviour of both masses (voters) and elites (agrarian party leaders). Finally, a more complete set of economic variables (including the the composition of inputs into agricultural production, the efficiency of resource use in agriculture, the composition of commodity output and consumers’ demand for these commodities) must be incorporated into the analysis.
In short, the assessment undertaken in this chapter justifies an econometric analysis of the formation, electoral support and dissolution, in the years immediately following the First World War, of agrarian parties in Australia, Canada and New Zealand. Part II undertakes such an analysis (with particular reference to the Australian Country Party at the Commonwealth elections of 1922,1925 and 1928).
32
Part II
Chapter 1 identified the formation and partial dissolution, in the years immediately following the First World War, of agrarian political parties in Australia, Canada and New Zealand as a relevant problem for research. Chapter 2 argued that existing (class, centre-periphery, ideological and organisational) inter pretations of agrarian parties in these countries do not resolve this problem for research, but that an analysis of the economic antecedents of rural electoral behaviour may do so. These chapters thus indicate that an analysis of the economic antecedents of voter and party behaviour in rural constituencies may contribute to a more complete understanding of voters, major and non-major parties and elections.
Part I, in other words, underscored the potential utility of an econometric analysis, focussed upon the years immediately following the First World War, of the formation, electoral support and dissolution of agrarian parties in Australia, Canada and New Zealand. Econometrics is most frequently defined as the application of statistical techniques to the analysis of economic phenomena (Hendry, 1980); (Johnston, 1984pp.l-6); (Kelejian and Oates, 1981pp.l-6); (Pindyck and Rubinfeld, 1985pp.xiii-xv); (Wonnacott and Wonnacott, 1979pp.3-5). In practice, an econometric analysis encompasses several distinct activities. Accordingly, so too must an econometric analysis of agrarian party formation, electoral support and dissolution.
First and foremost, such an analysis is an exercise in economic analysis: it utilises economic theory in order to resolve the problem for research identified in Chapter 1. It is also an exercise in mathematical analysis: it expresses theoretical relationships in mathematical terms in order to make them more amen able to empirical investigation. It is partly an exercise in empirical research: it collects appropriate data and relates theoretical variables to observable variables. Finally, it is partly an exercise in applied statis tics: it specifies appropriate statistical models and estimates behavioural relationships.
Part II undertakes such an analysis (with particular reference to the Australian Country Party at the Commonwealth elections of 1922, 1925 and 1928). Chapter 3 sets out an economic theory of agrarian party formation, electoral support and dissolution. Chapter 4 describes the (Australian) data and specifies the statistical models that are required in order to evaluate this theory’s hypotheses. Chapters 5 and 6 confront this theory’s hypotheses with these data: Chapter 5 analyses the Country Party’s formation and
partial dissolution at these elections; Chapter 6 analyses the Country Party’s electoral support at these elections.
ADDENDUM:
"* i n d i c a t e s t h a t t < 1 . 9 6 " , w h i c h
a p p e a r s i n t h e t a b l e s i n C h a p t e r s
5 and 6 , s h o u l d r e a d
"* i n d i c a t e s t h a t 1 . 9 6 < t < 2 . 3 2 " .
Chapter 3
Theory
Part I identified the formation, in the years immediately following the First World War, of agrarian parties in Australia, Canada and New Zealand as a relevant and unresolved problem for comparative research. It also observed that non-major and agrarian parties have been the subject of almost no ex plicitly theoretical research. Section 3.1 constructs a formal theory of non-major party formation, elec toral support and dissolution. Section 3.2 extends this theory in order to account for the formation, electoral support and dissolution of agrarian parties in Australia, Canada and New Zealand.