rare events
Prediction of default probability by using statistical models for rare events
... of events per variable (EPV) requirements for developing accurate prediction model has been underemphasized in the literature on credit ...for rare events and EPV requirements for accurate ...
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Valuing Life: Experimental Evidence Using Sensitivity to Rare Events
... a rare event with major ...catastrophic events such as death. We show that EU theory underestimates rare events and that this originates from the classic axiom of continuity (Monotone ...
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Numerical computation of rare events via large deviation theory
... Rare events often have a drastic impact despite their low frequency of ...involve rare events. The accurate descrip- tion of these events is complicated, since their low rate of ...
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Penalized Regression Methods for Modelling Rare Events Data with Application to Occupational Injury Study
... Rare events are dichotomos dependent variables with dozens to thousands of times fewer “ones” ...(i.e. events, such as wars, vetoes, or epidemiological infections) than “zeros” ...non- events) ...
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How to Change the Weight of Rare Events in Decisions from Experience
... of rare events (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979; Rieskamp, 2008), whereas decisions from experience do not (Camilleri & Newell, 2011; Hertwig, Barron, Weber, & Erev, 2004; Lejarraga & Gonzalez, ...
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Do rare events explain CDX tranche spreads?
... The CDX is an index of credit default swaps on major U.S. corporations. In the 2005– 2008 period, contracts on the CDX as a whole and on tranches of the CDX were actively traded. Senior tranches are essentially deep ...
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Catastrophic risk, rare events, and black swans : could there be a countably additive synthesis?
... risk, rare events, and black swans are phenomena that require special attention in normative decision ...successors, rare events whose probability is ...
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Rare Events, Financial Crises, and the Cross Section of Asset Returns
... some rare events can arrest convergence to a rational expectations equilibrium thereby initializing a new learning ...extraordinary events. Such events are likely to be easier to interpret and ...
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Landslide Susceptibility Assessment Using Conditional Analysis and Rare Events Logistics Regression: A Case Study in the Antrodoco Area (Rieti, Italy)
... This paper discusses some methodological aspects for the production of susceptibili- ty maps of slope instability developed within the CARG Project (Geological Carto- graphy of Italy at 1:50,000 scale). It describes an ...
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A Simulation-Based Algorithm for Ergodic Control of Markov Chains Conditioned on Rare Events
... on rare events is ...a rare event and not just one of optimizing certain per- formance metrics within a parameterized class as with Rubinstein ...
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Asymptotics of rare events in birth–death processes bypassing the exact solutions
... We have studied two classes of birth–death models defined by one-step Markov jump processes, the SIS model from epidemiology and the Schl¨ogl model from chemical kinetics. For these benchmark models, near-continuum ...
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Generalized Extreme Value Regression for Binary Rare Events Data: an Application to Credit Defaults
... binary rare events data, ...in rare events studies: the probability of rare event is underestimated and the logit link is a symmet- ric function, so the response curve approaches zero ...
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On Log Likelihood Ratios and the Significance of Rare Events
... for rare bigrams estimated with G 2 can differ substantially from the true values as computed by Fisher’s exact ...with rare events, Agresti (1990, ...
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Analysis and simulation of rare events for SPDEs*
... of rare events requires to pay attention on the chosen discretisation since its accuracy depends on the time ...compute rare events (3) and reactive trajectories, ...
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Rare events for the Manneville Pomeau map
... the Rare Events Point Processes (REPP), counting the number of exceedances, which correspond to entrances in balls around ζ, converge in distribution to a Poisson process; or the point ζ is periodic and the ...
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Modelling small and medium enterprise loan defaults as rare events: the generalized extreme value regression model
... In this work we aim to propose a new GLM regression model to overcome the drawbacks of the logistic regression model in underestimating the PD in credit risk analysis. As is well known, the GEV distribution is a suitable ...
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Estimating rate of occurrence of rare events with empirical Bayes : a railway application
... hazardous events and over 4000 end ...of rare events based on few data is a modern challenge facing the Railway Safety and Standards Board (RSSB), who are responsible for maintaining the ...
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Of black swans and tossed coins : is the description experience gap in risky choice limited to rare events?
... In this pair of experiments, we demonstrate that the differences between described and experienced risky choices are not limited to rare events. We developed a novel task for decisions from experience and ...
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On-Sight Shifting at the Cryogenic Underground Observatory for Rare Events
... Research at Laboratori Nazionali del Gran Sasso (LNGS) draws from all branches of physics. The Cryogenic Underground Observatory for Rare Events (CUORE) is one of the eleven experiments that are housed at ...
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A Sample Size Calculation of Bayesian Design for Superiority Trials with Rare Events
... As a result, regardless of the prior distributions used, power to detect superiority was found systematically higher with single-arm Bayesian design compared to two-arm Bayesian Manuscri[r] ...
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