[PDF] Top 20 Quarterly Economic Commentary, Winter 2015

... The Economic Research Institute was founded in Dublin in 1960, with the assistance of a grant from the Ford Foundation of New ...The Economic and Social Research Institute ...namely, economic growth, ... See full document

... The Commentary is edited by Kieran McQuinn and David Duffy. Kieran McQuinn is an Associate Research Professor, David Duffy is a Senior Research Officer, and Ciara Morley and Daniel Foley are Research Assistants at ... See full document

... This is important from a policy perspective, as it indicates there is no macroeconomic rationale to stimulate domestic economic activity. Furthermore, the robust growth rates experienced by the economy, we ... See full document

... The UK economy is experiencing a trade-led recovery as greater demand both domestically and in markets in Europe, America and Asia has led to increased exports and investment in the economy in the latter half of 2010. ... See full document

... The government also announced that Increases for Qualified Children (IQCs) – awarded on top of personal rates of payment for most benefits – will from March be higher for children aged 12 and above, to reflect the ... See full document

... Monetary policy in the euro zone remains relatively loose with reductions in interest rates and significant liquidity provided to the banking system, although a lower refinancing rate for the banking system may not ... See full document

... Turning to our forecasts, we expect the CPI to fall by 4½ per cent in 2009 and by ½ per cent in 2010. We are forecasting a fall of 1¾ per cent in the HICP this year, and a further fall of 1 per cent next year. We have ... See full document

... present Commentary also devotes significant attention to ongoing statistical issues concerning Irish macroeconomic ...Q2 2015, this exercise suggests that the absence of this series results in GDP growth ... See full document

... A modest rise in the value of tourist spending overseas is forecast, while a slightly slower increase than last year- is projected for other service imports, due to the lower rate of g:o[r] ... See full document

... To apply the model, data on household expenditure on different commodities, commodity prices and other socioeconomic variables are needed. Using the Household Budget Survey (HBS) from the Central Statistical Office ... See full document

... While undoubtedly the deterioration in the business climate, through poorer fundamentals, would have led firms to pull back investment, a number of research papers have highlighted the negative impact of the banking ... See full document

... House price developments are presented in Figure 25 on a geographic basis splitting out Dublin and the rest of Ireland. It is clear that the deceleration of price growth in Dublin in early 2015 was much more acute ... See full document

... The Irish system exempts private pension contributions from income tax through its EET approach. EET systems are generally considered to result in higher pension contributions than TEE (Taxed, Exempt, Exempt) systems ... See full document

... House price developments are presented in Figure 29 on a geographic basis splitting out Dublin and the rest of Ireland. As housing pressures are most acute in the capital such a dichotomy provides insight into relative ... See full document

... With such rapid increases in mortgage credit, it is important to understand whether such trends are sustainable or whether they constitute a financial stability risk? Currently, existing evidence suggests that the credit ... See full document

... The QNA suggest that investment recorded strong growth in the second quarter of this year, with strong growth in Building and Construction being the main driver of the increase. This is not surprising given the present ... See full document

... There are some special measures that affect the Budget numbers that may not have a direct impact on the economy and we treat them separately. They are included in both the base run and the indexed run, thus excluding ... See full document

... One area where there is a strong economic case for differentiated, higher rates of taxation is goods whose consumption generate negative effects, or externalities, on others. Budget 2019 announced increases in the ... See full document

... the 2015 Manpower Talent Shortage Survey asks employers how much difficulty they have filling jobs due to a lack of available talent, while also ranking the types of jobs for which skill shortages are most ... See full document

... The proposed macro-prudential measures announced by the Central Bank of Ireland in October are assessed in an Appendix to the Commentary by Duffy and McQuinn. The submission welcomes the principle of a ... See full document