[PDF] Top 20 Quarterly Economic Commentary, Summer 2016

... The relatively high rate of investment in these countries is, in many respects, a function of the convergence towards the European average in living standards experienced by these countries from the 1990s onwards. ... See full document

... More generally, the public finances section of this Commentary suggests that the Irish economy is likely to register budget surpluses in 2016 and 2017. This presents a certain challenge as to the framing of ... See full document

... significant economic growth, it is perhaps disappointing that levels of innovative activity in both Ireland and Northern Ireland have not increased more ... See full document

... Figure 3.2 reveals population growth for almost all cohorts, as the number of immigrants exceeded the number of emigrants. The highest net inward migration occurred among adults aged between their late twenties and late ... See full document

... of economic activity, increases in tax revenue require either higher tax rates or a wider tax ...to economic decisions, so widening of the tax base is preferred on efficiency ... See full document

... Table 1 shows the 18 cases since 1970 where OECD economies have experienced falls in real house prices of at least 20 per cent, along with the previous price rise, and the duration of th[r] ... See full document

... June 2016, the EUR/GBP rate has appreciated ...weak economic performance in the Eurozone versus the United States, the EUR/USD rate has been weakening since the first quarter of ... See full document

... significant economic growth, it is perhaps disappointing that levels of innovative activity in both Ireland and Northern Ireland have not increased more ... See full document

... Most of the developments observed since 2013 in the domestic market have occurred in the absence of any significant increases in mortgage credit; indeed, one could argue that in terms of both the general economy and the ... See full document

... Budget 2016 has attracted less attention, but is important from the point of view of structural reform, is the postponement of revaluations of residential properties for property tax purposes for a period of three ... See full document

... On the basis of these assumptions we estimate that there will be some slowdown in the "natural increase" in the number of households, reflecting a fall in the birth rate in the 1980s. However, it could still give ... See full document

... Given the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the future relationship between the UK and the EU, the standard approach in these studies is to present a range of scenarios. In earlier Brexit studies, these scenarios broadly ... See full document

... An empirical profile of SME investment in Ireland is critical to understanding the growth possibilities and productive capacity of Irish indigenous enterprises. However little is known about SME investment activity ... See full document

... The second source of data relates to our estimates of how significant price increases could be in the introduction of tariffs. The assumption made is that in the absence of a trade deal or transitional arrangement, the ... See full document

... Budget 2019 was a significantly expansionary fiscal package with both current and capital expenditure set to increase in a marked fashion relative to 2018. While the increased expenditure on items to do with social ... See full document

... last Commentary, inflation fell further from target in most developed countries, while worldwide growth in the second half of 2014 proved to be weaker than ... See full document

... House price developments are presented in Figure 29 on a geographic basis splitting out Dublin and the rest of Ireland. As housing pressures are most acute in the capital such a dichotomy provides insight into relative ... See full document

... Inflation was 0.1 per cent in the year to July 2015, up from 0 per cent in the year to June 2015. While inflation was negative in April for the first time since 1960, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has been flat for the ... See full document

... the summer of 2012, that the ECB would “do whatever it takes” to preserve the euro, the gain in credibility of Irish policy has also seen the risk premium on Irish borrowing fall dramatically so that it is well ... See full document

... domestic economic activity, could, if suitably explained, be used by those interested in economic policy in Ireland, and also by those abroad interested in the Irish ... See full document