[PDF] Top 20 Quarterly Economic Commentary, Summer 2017

... House prices and rents continue to grow at elevated rates illustrating the continued gap between supply and demand in the Irish residential sector. Updated analysis in Duffy et al. (2016) suggested that long-run housing ... See full document

... We echo the findings of Bergin et al. (2009) in arguing that, if the world economy recovers significant momentum by 2011, the Irish economy, as long as it regains competitiveness, could grow quite rapidly in the period ... See full document

... Figure 3.2 reveals population growth for almost all cohorts, as the number of immigrants exceeded the number of emigrants. The highest net inward migration occurred among adults aged between their late twenties and late ... See full document

... Table 1 shows the 18 cases since 1970 where OECD economies have experienced falls in real house prices of at least 20 per cent, along with the previous price rise, and the duration of th[r] ... See full document

... 160,000. Quarterly National Household Survey (QNHS) data suggests that new households continued to form even as the market experienced sharp falls in prices over the latter half of the ... See full document

... significant economic growth, it is perhaps disappointing that levels of innovative activity in both Ireland and Northern Ireland have not increased more ... See full document

... the Economic Development Forum, a social partnership body, which has met regularly to consider aspects of innovation development and performance in Northern ... See full document

... the economic crisis and, following a decline at the onset of the crisis in 2008, has since ...the economic crisis had a particularly significant impact on women under 30, who remained in education in their ... See full document

... close economic relationship with the ...of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) based on their NiGEM global econometric model to assess the impact of Brexit on Ireland’s trading partners and the wider ... See full document

... The US has imposed a number of tariffs, with the administration arguing that this will repair the nation’s trade balance and lessen national security risk exposures. Having initially introduced a set of indirect tariffs ... See full document

... House price developments are presented in Figure 25 on a geographic basis splitting out Dublin and the rest of Ireland. It is clear that the deceleration of price growth in Dublin in early 2015 was much more acute than ... See full document

... A further source of risk to the public finances is the recurring announcement – late in the year it is to be paid – of the Christmas bonus: an extra payment for people in receipt of certain social welfare benefits. The ... See full document

... In response to persistent low inflation in the Euro Area, the European Central Bank (ECB) decided in the December governing council meeting to cut its deposit facility to -0.3 per cent from -0.2 per cent. The main ... See full document

... recent Quarterly Financial Accounts show that household deleveraging continued in the first quarter of 2014, with the stock of household debt declining by ...the Summer Commentary, recent research ... See full document

... the summer of 2012, that the ECB would “do whatever it takes” to preserve the euro, the gain in credibility of Irish policy has also seen the risk premium on Irish borrowing fall dramatically so that it is well ... See full document

... The Irish economy continues to increase at a significant pace in 2017. While certain taxation items registered relatively weak growth in the earlier part of the year, more recent Exchequer returns indicate that ... See full document

... To motivate our model and variable choice we consider both economic theory as well as some of the previous literature in this area. In particular we follow closely the methodology and variable choice set out in ... See full document

... Monthly data for the KBC Bank/ESRI Consumer Sentiment Index are available from February 1996. Figure 1 displays the three-month moving average Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) as well as the three-month moving average of ... See full document

... present economic conditions with the KBC Bank/ESRI Consumer Sentiment Index, for example, registering a significant downturn in households’ expectations since November ...Irish economic activity in advance ... See full document

... While the scars of the financial crisis still remain in the Irish mortgage market, recent data would point towards a normalisation of activity. Figure 16 presents the growth rates of credit to households from Irish ... See full document