[PDF] Top 20 Quarterly Economic Commentary, Winter 2014

... 2014. For France, Germany and Italy they estimate growth of 0.2 per cent, 0.1 per cent and -0.2 per cent respectively. As argued in previous Commentaries, an investment programme for Europe would help to stimulate ... See full document

... In addition to changes in weekly rates of payments, claimants of Working Family Payment (WFP, formerly known as Family Income Supplement, or FIS) will from March be able to disregard from the WFP means test up to €93.23 ... See full document

... Beginning with our Commentary of Autumn 2008, we argued that the public finances had moved onto a trajectory that was unsustainable and which threatened to impede recovery. As a result, it was necessary to put in ... See full document

... T he most recent Central Statistics Office estimates from the Quarterly National Accounts (QNA) for GDP and GNP suggest that the economy grew slightly in Q3. Cumulating estimated activity over the first three ... See full document

... Youth unemployment rates according to the QNHS have become particularly elevated. At 39 per cent, unemployment amongst the 15‐19 year age bracket is the highest amongst any age cohort, while 20‐24 year olds come second ... See full document

... Autumn Commentary we outlined our view that a neutral budgetary strategy was the optimal policy to follow, especially given the strong growth rates evident in the ... See full document

... A modest rise in the value of tourist spending overseas is forecast, while a slightly slower increase than last year- is projected for other service imports, due to the lower rate of g:o[r] ... See full document

... The scale of the persistent increase in Irish house prices over the period 1995 to 2007 was unparalled across western economies and unsurprisingly led to a disproportionate degree of economic activity ... See full document

... Figure 45 breaks down the seasonally-adjusted level of employment by sector for the first quarter of 2014, 2018 and 2019. The construction sector has had by far the largest growth in employment, increasing by 66.1 ... See full document

... Lee, 2014), due to an unwillingness to borrow arising from factors such as a resistance to any outside intervention that might come from banks or other types of ... See full document

... The Irish system exempts private pension contributions from income tax through its EET approach. EET systems are generally considered to result in higher pension contributions than TEE (Taxed, Exempt, Exempt) systems ... See full document

... of 2014. If the 779 group were all surveyed in September 2014 and the 780 group were all surveyed in April 2014, that would mean that the 779 group at the time of survey, when the retirement outcome ... See full document

... CSO data show that prices on average, as measured by the CPI, are unchanged in August 2015 from the previous year. This marks the first time since November 2014 that the annual change in CPI was not negative. ... See full document

... Such a relatively weak medium and longer-term outlook for the European economy has clear policy implications from an Irish perspective. Over the longer- term, McQuinn and Whelan (2014) argue that, in the case of ... See full document

... strong economic performance over the next five years, the domestic market, in the absence of a significant supply response, looks set to experience consistently rising house prices over the medium ... See full document

... The Economic Research Institute was founded in Dublin in 1960, with the assistance of a grant from the Ford Foundation of New ...The Economic and Social Research Institute ...namely, economic growth, ... See full document

... There are some special measures that affect the Budget numbers that may not have a direct impact on the economy and we treat them separately. They are included in both the base run and the indexed run, thus excluding ... See full document

... A further source of risk to the public finances is the recurring announcement – late in the year it is to be paid – of the Christmas bonus: an extra payment for people in receipt of certain social welfare benefits. The ... See full document

... The Quarterly National Household Survey shows the unemployment rate for this age group at 15 per cent for the fourth quarter of 2013, while annual employment growth has been negative since the second quarter of ... See full document

... More generally, the public finances section of this Commentary suggests that the Irish economy is likely to register budget surpluses in 2016 and 2017. This presents a certain challenge as to the framing of future ... See full document