[PDF] Top 20 Quarterly Economic Commentary, Spring 2011

... Real disposable income is likely to fall by about 1 per cent next year. We are assuming that government will keep broadly to the agreed programme for reducing the budget deficit, but that the savings rate will fall, ... See full document

... an economic recovery would allow the State to sell its stake in these banks with a good prospect of realising its investment (including the associated costs of financing that ... See full document

... until the autumn of 2010 the government was funded at least a year in advance. However, in the late summer of 2010 the losses emerging in the covered (guaranteed) banks were so large that they led to an erosion of  ... See full document

... The fundamental factors behind the decline in investment in recent years are still in place. Following the exuberance of the bubble era, there remains an excess supply of housing, office space and commercial space. The ... See full document

... The wave of poor outcomes and indicators have led us to cut our forecast for 2009, from - 4.6 per cent in our Winter Commentary to -9.2 per cent (on a GNP basis). For 2010, we expect to see a moderation in the ... See full document

... We show that households with lower income levels consume a higher share of products that would be most affected by increases in tariffs and trade cost and the overall effect is inversely[r] ... See full document

... The Commentary is edited by Kieran McQuinn and David Duffy. Kieran McQuinn is an Associate Research Professor, David Duffy is a Senior Research Officer, and Ciara Morley and Daniel Foley are Research Assistants at ... See full document

... Among the main categories of industry, total exports account for over half of gross output in all three categories, with net domestic disposals accounting for a tiny 2 Y2 per cent of gro[r] ... See full document

... Quarterly data Dependent variable is change in Irish unemployment thousands UK data is short-term unemployed in millions 'Lagged' data are lagged four quarters Series are adjusted for ch[r] ... See full document

... The initial QEC forecasts show much the same cumulative growth as the NIE preliminary estimates, with overestimation in the earlier years being offset by a failure to predict the strong [r] ... See full document

... Pension fund investments are generally exempt from tax on their capital gains and income. A temporary pension levy (introduced in 2011) taxed the entire accumulated fund but was phased out in 2016. Pension income ... See full document

... In addition to changes in weekly rates of payments, claimants of Working Family Payment (WFP, formerly known as Family Income Supplement, or FIS) will from March be able to disregard from the WFP means test up to €93.23 ... See full document

... A key feature of the improved economic performance of the economy has been the strength of the tax take throughout 2014. The end-year Exchequer returns show that the public finances performed well in 2014, in line ... See full document

... Some recent work in collaboration with European research partners has examined the distributional impact of austerity measures in six EU countries – the UK, Spain, Portugal, Greece, Estonia and Ireland. The analysis  ... See full document

... minimise economic costs, for example by protecting the highest value uses as far as ...the economic value of risk reduction measures one must have a feel for the economic costs of ... See full document

... close economic relationship with the ...of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) based on their NiGEM global econometric model to assess the impact of Brexit on Ireland’s trading partners and the wider ... See full document

... The past quarter has seen the launch of the new ESRI/Bank of Ireland Savings and Investment Index. Monteiro, O’Toole and Watson in a box in the Commentary provide an overview of the Index in terms of what it seeks ... See full document

... Since the then government put in place a medium-term adjustment programme in November 2010 the public finances each year have come in ahead of target. This has happened in spite of the fact that the rate of growth in the ... See full document

... Despite ongoing concerns as to the sustainability of its underlying economic performance, the Chinese economy registered strong year-on-year growth of 6.8 per cent for the third quarter of 2017. Current trends ... See full document

... particular slowed as high inflation and low wage growth are increasingly putting pressure on household incomes. Latest data from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) show that inflation is now growing at an annual ... See full document