[PDF] Top 20 Quarterly Economic Commentary, Spring 2013

... pursued in order to reduce exposure to future banking crises. Encouragingly, EU institutions have recently agreed to establish a single supervisory mechanism (SSM) allowing large eurozone banks to be regulated at ... See full document

... By sector, agriculture, forestry and fishing remains the source of the largest increases in the QNHS employment data, with half-year annual growth of 15,700, an increase of 18.7 per cent. While this is an unexpectedly ... See full document

... The wave of poor outcomes and indicators have led us to cut our forecast for 2009, from - 4.6 per cent in our Winter Commentary to -9.2 per cent (on a GNP basis). For 2010, we expect to see a moderation in the ... See full document

... The economic challenges facing the Euro Area are undoubtedly being compounded by the public finances situation in a number of member states and in particular by the on-going debt crisis in ... See full document

... By providing a more accurate picture of the incidence of different family types, this research lets policymakers know who is affected by policies that differentiate between family structures. It also raises two specific ... See full document

... The Commentary is edited by Kieran McQuinn and David Duffy. Kieran McQuinn is an Associate Research Professor, David Duffy is a Senior Research Officer, and Ciara Morley and Daniel Foley are Research Assistants at ... See full document

... We show that households with lower income levels consume a higher share of products that would be most affected by increases in tariffs and trade cost and the overall effect is inversely[r] ... See full document

... Quarterly data Dependent variable is change in Irish unemployment thousands UK data is short-term unemployed in millions 'Lagged' data are lagged four quarters Series are adjusted for ch[r] ... See full document

... Among the main categories of industry, total exports account for over half of gross output in all three categories, with net domestic disposals accounting for a tiny 2 Y2 per cent of gro[r] ... See full document

... The UK labour market has continued to improve in 2013. The addition of more than 175,000 jobs during the third quarter caused the employment rate to grow to 71.8 per cent from 71.2 per cent in the previous ... See full document

... The initial QEC forecasts show much the same cumulative growth as the NIE preliminary estimates, with overestimation in the earlier years being offset by a failure to predict the strong [r] ... See full document

... While undoubtedly the deterioration in the business climate, through poorer fundamentals, would have led firms to pull back investment, a number of research papers have highlighted the negative impact of the banking ... See full document

... A further source of risk to the public finances is the recurring announcement – late in the year it is to be paid – of the Christmas bonus: an extra payment for people in receipt of certain social welfare benefits. The ... See full document

... The consequences of any disruption to the SEM would have implications for both consumers and producers, particularly in terms of costs. Should Northern Ireland cease to participate in the SEM, the market would serve a ... See full document

... since 2013 has surprised many ...and 2013. However since 2013 prices have increased by 50 per cent with recent house price inflation showing no signs of ...strong economic performance over the ... See full document

... The relatively high rate of investment in these countries is, in many respects, a function of the convergence towards the European average in living standards experienced by these countries from the 1990s onwards. ... See full document

... As indicated in the Article, these demand pressures are likely to continue to grow beyond 2015, so that measures aimed at tackling supply constraints will be an important priority for the forthcoming strategy for the ... See full document

... The Eurozone maintains its improving performance as record-low interest rates look likely to be maintained in the short run. The combined effects of prolonged accommodative monetary policy, strong labour market ... See full document

... Such a relatively weak medium and longer-term outlook for the European economy has clear policy implications from an Irish perspective. Over the longer- term, McQuinn and Whelan (2014) argue that, in the case of Europe, ... See full document

... From a household demand perspective, the option to fix for longer-term horizons would allow them to balance repayment risks with other factors such as income volatility. The use of longer-term fixed rate mortgage loans ... See full document