[PDF] Top 20 Quarterly Economic Commentary, Winter 2013

... an economic point of view, is ...for 2013 means that Budgetary policy is ...underlying economic activity rather than because the government has decided to increase expenditure or to cut ... See full document

... Autumn Commentary we outlined our view that a neutral budgetary strategy was the optimal policy to follow, especially given the strong growth rates evident in the ... See full document

... consumption and investment, and restore growth in the economy. A simulation using NIESR’s NiGEM model suggests that the package will raise growth by only 0.3 percentage points in 2012 and 0.2 per cent in 2013. 6 ... See full document

... A further source of risk to the public finances is the recurring announcement – late in the year it is to be paid – of the Christmas bonus: an extra payment for people in receipt of certain social welfare benefits. The ... See full document

... last Commentary, a deal on the promissory notes was agreed in February ...in 2013. For 2013, costs associated with the liquidation of Irish Bank Resolution Corporation (IBRC) and accrued interest on ... See full document

... 7 Many Central Banks around the world have sought to aid domestic recoveries through relaxed monetary policies. In the US, Britain and the Euro Area effective interest rates were reduced close to zero and exceptional ... See full document

... Beginning with our Commentary of Autumn 2008, we argued that the public finances had moved onto a trajectory that was unsustainable and which threatened to impede recovery. As a result, it was necessary to put in ... See full document

... A modest rise in the value of tourist spending overseas is forecast, while a slightly slower increase than last year- is projected for other service imports, due to the lower rate of g:o[r] ... See full document

... While undoubtedly the deterioration in the business climate, through poorer fundamentals, would have led firms to pull back investment, a number of research papers have highlighted the negative impact of the banking ... See full document

... The consequences of any disruption to the SEM would have implications for both consumers and producers, particularly in terms of costs. Should Northern Ireland cease to participate in the SEM, the market would serve a ... See full document

... The relatively high rate of investment in these countries is, in many respects, a function of the convergence towards the European average in living standards experienced by these countries from the 1990s onwards. ... See full document

... the Winter Commentary, Duffy and McQuinn (2014) had outlined a counter-cyclical rules approach which suggested that the specific limits for the LTVs and LTIs be set on the basis of a regular analysis of ... See full document

... Apart from the data from the CSO QNHS, the Live Register provides a useful alternative measure of unemployment. It differs from the QNHS as those employed on a part-time, seasonal or casual basis may sign on the Live ... See full document

... In addition to direct tax reforms, Budget 2019 announced a number of indirect tax changes, mostly increases. Foremost among these was a rise in the rate of VAT levied on most goods currently subject to second reduced ... See full document

... The decision by the ECB in October to reduce the scale of its bond buying programme to €30 billion per month from €60 billion in January 2018 reflects the improving macroeconomic conditions in the Euro Area. While ... See full document

... Autumn Commentary we signalled that, given the apparent strength of the recovery in 2015, a neutral fiscal stance was the most appropriate position to take at this ...latest economic survey of Ireland, 38 ... See full document

... On the basis of house completion, planning permission and commencement data it seems likely that investment in housing will remain subdued in 2013 and there appears little reason to change our forecast from the ... See full document

... pressures on eurozone banks have slowed the pace of deleveraging, further progress is required to reduce perceived risks in the European financial system so that credit institutions can be put back on a stable path ... See full document

... domestic economic activity, could, if suitably explained, be used by those interested in economic policy in Ireland, and also by those abroad interested in the Irish ... See full document

... Framing a prudent budgetary policy in the present context is challenging for a number of reasons; while the economy is exhibiting particularly strong growth rates, which would suggest that fiscal policy should at least ... See full document