[PDF] Top 20 Quarterly Economic Commentary, WINTER 2017

... Despite ongoing concerns as to the sustainability of its underlying economic performance, the Chinese economy registered strong year-on-year growth of 6.8 per cent for the third quarter of 2017. Current ... See full document

... The areas covered by SWITCH, including income tax, PRSI, USC, property tax, welfare benefits and public service remuneration, account for the bulk of the impact of budgetary policy changes on households’ cash incomes in ... See full document

... force’ totalled 1,477,000 individuals. Some of these individuals have a stronger attachment to the labour force than others and are classified by Eurostat as potential additional labour force (PALF). This group includes ... See full document

... Figure 1 plots the ratio for a select sample of countries. From the graph, it is clear that the significant increase in Irish house prices up to 2007 caused the ratio of price to income to increase sharply even at a time ... See full document

... From a macroeconomic perspective, the budget can be seen as quite expansionary in nature. Reduced revenues from the significant tax reform measures announced coupled with a decline in the anticipated revenues from Irish ... See full document

... Notwithstanding the risks to the outlook, the persistence of recent growth does give rise to the possibility of capacity constraints impeding future activity. In a Research Note to the Commentary, McQuinn (2018) ... See full document

... A number of other important considerations should be borne in mind when attempting to identify trends in private sector earnings. The sectoral wage data based on the new EHECS survey are a relatively new series and they ... See full document

... The Eurozone maintains its improving performance as record-low interest rates look likely to be maintained in the short run. The combined effects of prolonged accommodative monetary policy, strong labour market ... See full document

... In response to persistent low inflation in the Euro Area, the European Central Bank (ECB) decided in the December governing council meeting to cut its deposit facility to -0.3 per cent from -0.2 per cent. The main ... See full document

... T he most recent Central Statistics Office estimates from the Quarterly National Accounts (QNA) for GDP and GNP suggest that the economy grew slightly in Q3. Cumulating estimated activity over the first three ... See full document

... There are some special measures that affect the Budget numbers that may not have a direct impact on the economy and we treat them separately. They are included in both the base run and the indexed run, thus excluding ... See full document

... A modest rise in the value of tourist spending overseas is forecast, while a slightly slower increase than last year- is projected for other service imports, due to the lower rate of g:o[r] ... See full document

... close economic relationship with the ...of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) based on their NiGEM global econometric model to assess the impact of Brexit on Ireland’s trading partners and the wider ... See full document

... the Commentary illustrate that some slowdown has occurred over the past few months in the number of new export orders taken on by firms in both the manufacturing and services ...UK economic performance ... See full document

... To apply the model, data on household expenditure on different commodities, commodity prices and other socioeconomic variables are needed. Using the Household Budget Survey (HBS) from the Central Statistical Office ... See full document

... While the scars of the financial crisis still remain in the Irish mortgage market, recent data would point towards a normalisation of activity. Figure 16 presents the growth rates of credit to households from Irish ... See full document

... The US has imposed a number of tariffs, with the administration arguing that this will repair the nation’s trade balance and lessen national security risk exposures. Having initially introduced a set of indirect tariffs ... See full document

... House price developments are presented in Figure 29 on a geographic basis splitting out Dublin and the rest of Ireland. As housing pressures are most acute in the capital such a dichotomy provides insight into relative ... See full document

... At present the 2020 target for renewable electricity, at 40 per cent, is much higher than the targets for the heating and transport sectors, at 12 per cent and 10 per cent respectively. 19 There are several arguments for ... See full document

... in economic growth and labour market stabilisation will result in higher tax revenues, our expectation is that it will continue to be difficult to reduce expenditure levels in 2013 to the extent sought by ... See full document